INDIANAPOLIS — A Colts team that finds itself in a surprisingly tight AFC South race now faces off against an Arizona team that might be more dangerous than the headlines surrounding the Cardinals right now.
Indianapolis kicks off at 1 p.m. Sunday at Lucas Oil Stadium (WXIN-59) against an Arizona team that has lost its last three games in the final moments, dealing with terrible breaks and inexplicable mistakes in all three games.
But the Cardinals (2-3) are probably a better test for the Colts (4-1) than they look on paper.
1. Arizona’s running game has been hit hard by the loss of its top two backs, but it has been successful. The Cardinals rank eighth in the NFL in yards per carry (4.8). James Conner and Trey Benson are on injured reserve, leaving Emari Demercado and Michael Carter as the team’s top two backs. Demercado made the inexcusable gaffe of dropping the ball on the way into the end zone last week, but Carter got more of the carries. The Indianapolis run defense has been middle of the pack, ranking 18th in yards per carry (4.45) and 12th in yards (98.0), but teams have not stuck with the run because most of the Colts’ opponents have been playing from behind.
2. Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray is expected to be out with a foot injury. If Murray is not able to go, the Cardinals’ backup is old Colts friend Jacoby Brissett. If Murray can play, he might not be as mobile as he normally is, and that could be a big development. The Indianapolis pass rush struggled against mobile quarterbacks Bo Nix and Cam Ward earlier this season, and Murray has been Arizona’s leading rusher, averaging 6.0 yards per carry on 29 carries. The Colts have relied on defensive end Laiatu Latu and defensive tackle DeForest Buckner to provide the initial pressure, and the rest of the line has cleaned up with second-effort sacks.
3. Murray has been getting the ball out of his hands quickly, posting the seventh-fastest time in the NFL at 2.68 seconds. But Murray has to get rid of it quickly; Arizona’s offensive line has given up 16 sacks, tied for 25th in the NFL. The Indianapolis pass rush is improving; The Colts have ranked in the top 10 in the NFL in pressure rate over the last two weeks. One thing to watch: Murray has faced a blitz on only 20.6% of snaps, the third-lowest rate in the NFL. Indianapolis defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo has blitzed on 25.1% of his snaps, and he’ll dial it up a little more if the situation warrants it. Brissett is a different quarterback but one of his strengths is limiting interceptions.
4. Arizona’s top two targets are tight end Trey McBride (29 catches, 275 yards, one touchdown) and wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. (20 catches, 306 yards, two touchdowns). The Arizona offense has struggled to produce much of anything outside of those two players; the Cardinals do not have another pass-catcher who has more than 65 yards receiving. Arizona’s reliance on those two players might make life easy on Anarumo. The Colts can direct veteran cornerback Charvarius Ward to shadow Harrison; Ward is allowing just 5.2 yards per attempt. After placing Ward on Harrison, the Colts can then direct coverage to McBride.
5. Arizona’s defense is a much more difficult test. The Cardinals run a unique system of coverages that make them hard to diagnose; Arizona ranks in the top 10 in yards allowed per dropback, giving up just 6.1 yards per passing play. NFL opponents have responded by racking up yardage with short completions, and the Cardinals do not have much of a pass rush to put pressure on Daniel Jones. Arizona has only 10 sacks so far this season, and now the Cardinals go up against a Colts offensive line that has allowed just four sacks, the fewest in the NFL.
6. Rookie Colts tight end Tyler Warren continues to look like a Pro Bowler, and he has a favorable matchup against the Cardinals secondary, even though Arizona has Budda Baker at free safety. Arizona has given up the fourth-most catches and fifth-most yards of any defense to tight ends. Warren has been one of the NFL’s most productive tight ends, catching 23 passes for 307 yards and a touchdown, and he is hard to identify because the Colts line him up all over the formation.
7. Running back Jonathan Taylor leads the NFL in rushing with 480 yards, but he might have a difficult matchup against the Cardinals this week. Arizona ranks in the top 10 against the run in yards (eighth, 92.4) and yards per carry (seventh, 3.85). Indianapolis has typically opened the game by throwing, then pounded Taylor against the defense late, and it might be the right formula again.
Joel A. Erickson covers the Colts all season. Get more coverage on IndyStarTV and with the Colts Insider newsletter.
This article originally appeared on Indianapolis Star: What to know about the Colts and Cardinals, Kyler Murray and Marvin Harrison Jr.
Reporting by Joel A. Erickson, Indianapolis Star / Indianapolis Star
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