Lansing State Journal columnist Graham Couch breaks down Michigan State’s football game against UCLA. Time: Noon Saturday. TV: Big Ten Network. Betting line: MSU -7.5
1. Aidan Chiles, the passing game and his protection
The strength of MSU’s offense was anything but last week at Nebraska. The Spartans’ passing game should be the one area (short of punting) where they have a chance to be elite this season and, at times, have been. Quarterback Aidan Chiles and receivers Nick Marsh and Omari Kelly are MSU’s separators, the weapons that give the Spartans a chance to make a dent no matter the opponent. That has to be the case for MSU to have a winning football season.
Last week, Chiles got knocked around, lost some confidence in his offensive line, stopped going through his progressions and, not just because of that, MSU didn’t target Marsh and Kelly nearly enough. All of it has to look different this Saturday — the protection, the approach, the execution.
2. Can MSU’s defense keep UCLA QB Nico Iamaleava in check?
UCLA quarterback Nico Iamaleava is one of the most discussed figures in the sport, as an example of where the transfer portal can go wrong for how and when he left Tennessee last season. But the Southern California native and former high school rival of Aidan Chiles is still a big talent, in size (6-foot-7) and ability. He leads the Bruins in passing and rushing, with 332 yards and four touchdowns on the ground, with 128 yards and three of those scores coming last week against Penn State. He repeatedly hurt the Nittany Lions with his legs. MSU will need to keep an eye (and perhaps a spy) on him at all times.
3. Is the improvement from MSU’s defense real?
When asked this week about what allowed MSU’s defense to look more disruptive and stout last week than they’d been previously, MSU defensive coordinator Joe Rossi cited outstanding practices during the bye week prep for the Huskers and then said the first two practices this week were just as good. If that means the Spartans will look more like the defense that frustrated and limited Nebraska for most of three quarters last Saturday, then MSU should win this game without doing so in a shootout. The Spartans don’t need their defense to dominate. But they do need it to string together stops and come up with sacks that create favorable downs and distances. They got that last week. Let’s see it again.
4. Who are the real Bruins?
UCLA might have just upset Penn State and have some juice with an interim coaching staff, but this is still the team that lost at Northwestern, fell hard to New Mexico, was crushed by Utah, and lost to UNLV. MSU’s Joe Rossi said this week that the old UCLA team is gone. I’m not so sure. We’ve seen this at MSU with an interim coach, when the Spartans beat Nebraska two years ago. It had nothing to do with the rest of the season.
UCLA ranks 100th or worse in scoring offense, points allowed, rush defense, third-down conversion defense, sacks and penalties. That’s in the Bruins’ DNA. If they repeat what they did last week, it’ll be one of the great efforts of discipline and preparation you’ll ever see in college football. Coming off a win like that, given the season they’ve had, it’s hard to do.
5. A clean day on special teams
MSU and just about everybody who follows the Spartans had begun to take their special teams play for granted, especially the punting unit and punter Ryan Eckley. Well, that crew — and the kickoff return unit — was a big reason why MSU lost at Nebraska last week. I think it was an anomaly. We’ve seen too much so far to think the Spartans’ can’t adequately block for Eckley, that he can’t place punts with pinpoint accuracy and that MSU isn’t pretty decent in executing in the return game, too. It would be wise to make sure last week’s follies don’t become a regular thing.
Prediction
If you’re capable of beating Penn State — even a Penn State team that’s unfocused and traveled across the country after a heart-wrenching overtime defeat to Oregon — you’re capable of beating MSU. I do wonder how long and hard UCLA celebrated that win. And how dialed in the Bruins are for this one. This is another cross country trip for them, a 9 a.m. start on their body clocks, and, unlike Penn State, an opponent that’s likely out to prove something.
Make it: MSU 34, UCLA 24
RELATED: Couch: For Michigan State football, hope for the season stops until the Spartans beat UCLA
Contact Graham Couch at gcouch@lsj.com. Follow him on X @Graham_Couch and BlueSky @GrahamCouch.
This article originally appeared on Lansing State Journal: Michigan State football vs. UCLA: 5 determining factors and a prediction
Reporting by Graham Couch, Lansing State Journal / Lansing State Journal
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
