ORCHARD PARK – Buffalo Bills center Connor McGovern fully understands that what happened last Sunday night is not the norm in the NFL.
When you’re down 15 points to the star-studded Baltimore Ravens with four minutes remaining, the odds of winning the game are, well, they were less than 1% according to the win probability models that once again were rendered meaningless because computers don’t play the games.
And yet there the Bills were, after a furious finish that saw them score 16 unanswered points, deliriously running off the field at Highmark Stadium following their most improbable 41-40 victory, a game that might stand up all year as the best one in the NFL.
It took a day for the reality of what happened to sink in, and to a man the Bills knew how fortunate they were that so many things – some big, some little – had to happen for that comeback to occur.
“During the game you don’t really think about it because I remember like right before Derrick Henry got the ball stripped by Ed Oliver, (offensive line coach Aaron) Kromer’s like, ‘Just block the guy in front of you, we’ll get the ball back, everything will take care of itself,’” McGovern recalled. “And we’re like, ‘Yeah, yeah.’ And then I’m watching the film the next day and it’s like, ‘Holy (crap), we’re down by two scores with four minutes left.’ No one blinked, nothing, and you take a step back after the game, you’re like, that’s actually really cool.”
One of the toughest tasks the Bills had this week was coming down from that high and getting back into preparation mode for their Week 2 game against the New York Jets, a team that certainly doesn’t look like the pushover it once was under new coach Aaron Glenn.
Like McGovern, quarterback Josh Allen knew the Bills were lucky to win against the Ravens, but that’s over and now there’s a hungry and improved AFC East rival ready to take the Bills down a peg.
“I think I’ve said it in some of these interviews before, sometimes you need the ball to bounce your way and it did on Sunday night,” quarterback Josh Allen said. “Just fortunate enough we can come away with a win. Now, obviously, that has no bearing or impact on this week’s game, I should say whatsoever. We gotta wash it and forget about it and put our best foot forward this week.”
Here’s my preview of the game:
The QB Matchup: Josh Allen vs. Justin Fields
On paper this is a complete mismatch. Allen is the reigning NFL MVP, the reigning AFC offensive player of the week, and one of the top five best players in the NFL. Fields is in his fifth NFL season, the first four of which were spent with the Bears and Steelers where he struggled to gain any traction in his career.
Now Fields has moved on to the Jets and he has a sharp offensive coordinator in Tanner Engstrand who for the past three seasons with the passing game coordinator for the high-flying Detroit Lions. In the Jets’ opening 34-32 loss to the Steelers, Fields completed 16 of 22 passes for 218 yards and a TD, and he also ran 12 times for 48 yards and two TDs.
He looked confident and comfortable and this might finally be the moment when his athletic ability is paired up with an offensive system that fits his style of play.
While this is yet another new coaching staff for the Jets, they still have some talented players on defense and through the years New York has given Allen some trouble. While he’s 9-4 against the Jets, he has completed only 63.2% of his passes with 16 TDs and 11 interceptions, the most picks he has against any team.
And in the last three trips to the Meadowlands, the Bills lost 20-17 in 2022 when he threw two picks, lost 22-16 in overtime in 2023 – the infamous Aaron Rodgers injury game – when he threw three interceptions, and they barely won 23-20 in 2024 when he managed just 215 yards passing.
Buffalo Bills who should impact the game
WR Keon Coleman: Was his performance in the fourth quarter last week his coming out party? Coleman decimated the Ravens with seven catches for 95 yards and a TD in the final 15 minutes, playing a critical role in the comeback. The Jets got picked apart by Aaron Rodgers for 244 yards and four TDs so Allen should be able to find similar success. Sauce Gardner is one of the best cover CBs in the NFL, but it seems unlikely that he’ll travel with Coleman or Joshua Palmer.
LT Dion Dawkins: He didn’t have one of his better games against the Ravens as he gave up two pressures and one sack while also committing a false start penalty and a holding penalty. Sunday, he’s going to see a lot of Will McDonald IV who lines up primarily on the right defensive side. He had two sacks and three total pressures against the immobile Rodgers, so Dawkins will need to be better.
LB Terrel Bernard: He played one of his worst games against Baltimore as he was consistently washed out in the run game, either because he couldn’t get off blocks or because he was slow to diagnose what was happening. He won’t be facing Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry again, but Fields is a very good running QB and RB Breece Hall has dynamic ability and is coming off a 107-yard effort last week. Hall has already had two 100-yard rushing games against the Bills in his career.
CB Tre’Davious White: All signs point to the veteran getting the start over rookie Dorian Strong. If it happens, you have to wonder what White has left after serious knee (2021) and Achilles (2023) injuries on top of his latest issue, a pulled groin that he suffered on Aug. 21. Like Gardner for New York, the Bills have a stud CB in Christian Benford and you can assume the Jets will try to get star WR Garrett Wilson in front of White as often as they can. Furthering Buffalo’s concerns if White is rusty in his return is that their safety duo of Taylor Rapp and Cole Bishop were terrible against the Ravens, so there could be some juicy opportunities for Fields against this Buffalo secondary.
New York Jets who should impact the game
WR Garrett Wilson: Now in his fourth NFL season, he has been a problem for the Bills since he entered the league as the 10th overall pick in the 2022 draft. In six games he has caught 28 of 47 targets for 386 yards and three TDs, and that was usually with sub-par QB play. He and Fields were teammates at Ohio State so they already had a connection before Fields joined the Jets in the offseason. On 26 pass snaps against the Steelers, Wilson lined up wide 14 times and in the slot 12, so the Jets are trying to find the best matchups for him depending on what the pre-snap read looks like.
RT Armand Membou: The rookie who the Jets picked No. 7 overall in the draft had a tremendous NFL debut. Matched up against Steelers great TJ Watt much of the day, he neutralized one of the most dangerous edge rushers in the league as he did not allow a single pressure. He gets another test against both Greg Rousseau and Joey Bosa, each of whom played pretty equal snap counts on each side of the line against Baltimore.
DT Quinnen Williams: He is one of the best in the NFL and a player who has haunted the Bills for several years with this ability to control the middle of the line. Last week he was the Jets highest-graded defensive player according to Pro Football Focus as he had five pressures, a sack, four tackles and five stops (tackles that constitute a failed play for the offense). He’s going to be a problem for interior linemen McGovern, David Edwards and O’Cyrus Torrence.
CB Brandon Stephens: The Steelers didn’t bother testing Gardner last week; they went after Stephens who they knew well from his days with the Ravens. He signed with the Jets as a free agent and his debut was ugly as he allowed five catches on seven targets for 60 yards and two TDs. Gardner is one of the best cover CBs in the NFL so the Bills will look to attack Stephens and nickel CB Michael Carter who also struggled against Pittsburgh.
Sal’s prediction: Bills 28, Jets 19
This is not going to be a walkover for the Bills. I fully expect the Jets to give Buffalo all it can handle in this game because that’s almost always the case when the teams meet at the Meadowlands. The Jets are a team in the midst of a culture change and the early returns indicate that Glenn and his coaching staff have demanded accountability and are getting the buy-in they need.
The Jets were up 26-17 going into the fourth quarter last week against a Steelers team that most believe will make the playoffs. But then the Jets made some critical mistakes, the kind that always seem to kill them, and they allowed Pittsburgh to steal the victory.
The Bills need to attack early on offense, get a lead and dictate the style of play for the Jets offense. New York will want to run the ball (it had 182 yards last week) and take some of the pressure off Fields, but if it falls behind, a pass-first script would not work in their favor.
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Sal Maiorana has covered the Buffalo Bills for four decades including 35 years as the full-time beat writer for the D&C, he has written numerous books about the history of the team, and he is also co-host of the BLEAV in Bills podcast/YouTube show. He can be reached at maiorana@gannett.com, and you can follow him on X @salmaiorana and on Bluesky @salmaiorana.bsky.social.
This article originally appeared on Rochester Democrat and Chronicle: Bills vs Jets prediction: AFC East clash tests Buffalo’s momentum after miracle win
Reporting by Sal Maiorana, Rochester Democrat and Chronicle / Rochester Democrat and Chronicle
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