This year’s autumn season may be two to three degrees higher than the historical average for many parts of the country, including New York, according to Accuweather.
AccuWeather meteorologists said the transition from summer to autumn in September will bring cooler air much faster for half the country, mostly in Northwest and Midwest states.
Meanwhile, states on the east coast such as New York, New Jersey, Connecticut and Pennsylvania may experience prolonged summer heat and humidity, which could contribute to ripe conditions for intense tropical storms, hurricanes and wildfires.
Parts of Eastern Canada have already been battling wildfires since the end of July, contributing to hazy skies and poor air quality in parts of the Northeast.
“Millions of people from Minneapolis to Chicago will likely see more rounds of wildfire smoke and a hazy sky into the middle of the fall season. The wind and weather patterns will continue to carry wildfire smoke high in the atmosphere from the western U.S. and Canada over parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes, into the Northeast,” AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Expert Paul Pastelok said. “There will be more vibrant sunsets that make for beautiful photos, but we also expect additional rounds of reduced air quality at times that can cause serious public health risks, especially for young people, older adults, outdoor workers, athletes, and other people with respiratory conditions.”
Expect heat, humidity into September and October
Pastelok said meteorological fall starts on Monday, Sept. 1, while astronomical autumn starts on the equinox at 2:19 p.m. ET on Monday, Sept. 22.
However, to many in the Lower Hudson Valley, it may not feel like fall until much later into the season.
“There is a clear trend of hot and sticky summer weather sticking around longer into the back-to-school season across much of the East Coast and many other parts of the country,” Pastelok said.
According to data from the National Weather Service, this trend hasn’t appeared suddenly. From 2018 to 2024, temperatures between May and August have steadily increased, causing some instances of record-breaking temperatures.
Record-breaking temperatures in White Plains
The highest June temperatures in White Plains were recorded in 2025, with a 98-degree average temperature for the whole month. This measurement broke the previous record of a 95-degree average in 2021.
Average July and August temperatures have also increased in White Plains in the last five years. According to the National Weather Service, July 2022 was the hottest on record, at a 97-degree average. Between 2023 and 2025, average temperatures ranged from a 92 to 96 degree average, with 2025 being the hottest in a three-year period.
2024 also saw the hottest November on record in White Plains, at a 79-degree maximum compared to the typical 69-degree average.
When will the Lower Hudson Valley’s cold weather kick in?
Pastelok said a transition to cold weather is expected to happen in late October and early November for the Northeast, but more mild temperatures will linger in the Southeast.
But by mid-November, Accuweather predicts the Lower Hudson Valley could get to see some flurries.
Increased risk of tropical storms and hurricanes
Pastelok says tropical storm activity mixing with slow-moving fronts could cause some more heavy rainfall and flash flooding in parts of the country.
“Plenty of warm and moist air is forecast to continue surging from the Gulf into the center of the country this autumn,” he said. “When it clashes with cooler air from Canada plunging in from the north, we will likely see rounds of severe storms and possibly more tornadoes in the center of the country, especially in October.”
While these weather patterns may not directly hit New York and the surrounding areas, Mid-Atlantic states do tend to receive remnants of major hurricanes as they travel up the Southeastern coast and break up into weaker storms.
Pastelok said that Atlantic waters are “abnormally warm,” which could contribute to more tropical storm activity in the Caribbean and close to the Southeast coast.
Earlier in the year, the weather news organization predicted a more active hurricane season, with about 13 to 18 named storms and seven to 10 hurricanes. The first recorded hurricane of the season to affect the United States this season was Chantal, which made landfall in South Carolina on July 6.
This article originally appeared on Rockland/Westchester Journal News: Fall 2025 to be “historically warm” in NY, experts say. The details
Reporting by Alexandra Rivera, Rockland/Westchester Journal News / Rockland/Westchester Journal News
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
