Colorado State University forecasters have issued their third prediction for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season and the news is a little better.
But Florida residents should continue be prepared.
Forecasters are now predicting this year’s hurricane season will be “slightly above normal,” with 16 named storms, and eight hurricanes, three of them major.
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The news wasn’t all good.
“We anticipate a slightly above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean,” CSU said.
A major hurricane is one with maximum sustained winds of at least 111 mph, making it a Category 3 storm or stronger.
Florida ranked No. 1 with the highest chances of a named storm, hurricane or major hurricane tracking within 50 miles of the coast, CSU said.
In April and June, CSU predicted an above-normal hurricane season in the Atlantic, with 17 named storms, nine hurricanes and four major hurricanes.
The reason for the slight drop in numbers in the July forecast are “high levels of Caribbean shear,” which are associated with less-active hurricane seasons.
Florida was hit by three hurricanes in 2024, two of them major.
➤ National Hurricane Center watching three tropical waves
Colorado State University predicting 16 named storms for 2025 Atlantic hurricane season
On July 9, Colorado State University updated its prediction for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season:
What are the chances of Florida getting hit by hurricane in 2025?
CSU calculated the probability of a named storm, hurricane and major hurricane tracking withing 50 miles for each state from Texas to Maine. Here are the numbers for Florida and its neighboring states:
Probability of named storm tracking within 50 miles of Florida, other US states
Probability of hurricane tracking within 50 miles of Florida, other states
Probability of major hurricane tracking within 50 miles of Florida, other states
What was CSU’s earlier prediction for the 2025 hurricane season?
Colorado State University’s June 11 prediction for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season was the same as the forecast issued in April:
On June 11, Colorado State University meteorologists predicted the following for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season:
That’s above the 30-year average from 1991 to 2020, with 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes, according to NOAA.
Probabilities above average for at least one major hurricane to make landfall in US, Florida
“We anticipate a slightly above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean,” CSU said.
CSU predicted July 9 the probabilities of at least one Category 3, 4 or 5 hurricane making landfall on each of the following coastal areas are above historical averages, compared to April’s forecast:
Probability for at least 1 major hurricane tracking through Caribbean
At least one major hurricane tracking through the Caribbean:
Factors considered in CSU’s updated hurricane season prediction
Several factors were considered by Colorado State University researchers in its third 2025 Atlantic hurricane season prediction, including:
“A warmer than-normal Atlantic combined with ENSO neutral conditions typically favors an active Atlantic hurricane season,” CSU said.
Precise hurricane season predictions not possible
“Everyone should realize that it is impossible to precisely predict this season’s hurricane activity in early July,” CSU said.
“Seasonal forecasts are based on statistical and dynamical models which will fail in some years. Moreover, theseforecasts do not specifically predict where within the Atlantic basin these storms will strike.
“We issue these forecasts to satisfy the curiosity of the public and to bring attention to the hurricane problem. There is a general interest in knowing what the odds are for an active or inactive season.
“It is also important that the reader appreciate that these seasonal forecasts are based on statistical and dynamical models which will fail in some years.
“As with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season. Thorough preparations should be made every season, regardless of predicted activity.”
NOAA predicting 13-19 named storms for 2025 hurricane season
NOAA is predicting there is a 60% chance of an above-normal season, a 30% chance of a near-normal season and a 10% chance for a below-normal season.
Forecasters predict:
AccuWeather predicts 13-18 named storms for 2025 hurricane season. 3-6 could directly impact US
AccuWeather is predicting the Atlantic hurricane season could bring 13 to 18 named storms in 2025:
Florida weather expert WeatherTiger predicting 16-21 tropical storms, 7-9 hurricanes
“Early indications are that 2025 might tilt busier than usual overall, but is most likely to land in the ballpark of long-term typical U.S. landfall activity,” according to Dr. Ryan Truchelut, chief meteorologist with WeatherTiger.
Truchelut is a Florida meteorologist who works with the USA TODAY Network.
➤ Flooded with anxiety? 2025 hurricane forecast offers a bit of hope for a more sane season
The 2025 season has a 50-50 shot of landing in the ranges of:
How many tropical cyclones are in an average hurricane season?
Based on a 30-year period from 1991 to 2020, an average Atlantic hurricane season has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes, according to NOAA.
When is the Atlantic hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
2024 season was above-average for tropical cyclones
Five hurricanes and one unnamed subtropical storm made landfall in the U.S. in 2024.
In 2024, there were:
2025 hurricane names for the Atlantic basin
Here are the names for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, along with how to pronounce them:
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What’s next?
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This article originally appeared on Sarasota Herald-Tribune: CSU predicting slightly fewer storms this hurricane season. Florida shouldn’t ignore tropics
Reporting by Cheryl McCloud, USA TODAY NETWORK – Florida / Sarasota Herald-Tribune
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
