The Buffalo Bills face the stiffest challenge of the season when they host the Kansas City Chiefs at 4:25 p.m. Sunday, Nov. 2, at Highmark Stadium
Patrick Mahomes and his Chiefs teammates are coming into this game on a heater, having won five out of their last six games. Kansas City, the reigning AFC champ, is now considered the favorite to win the Super Bowl.
Like a battle between good and evil, Chiefs and Bills have been locked in a seesaw battle over their past nine games. Going back to the 2020 season, Kansas City holds a slight edge overall (5-4) but has gone a perfect 4-0 against Buffalo when it matters most (4-0 in the playoffs).
Bills are considered the underdog, despite being at home where quarterback Josh Allen usually thrives. In fact, a survey of early predictions for the game found no one predicting a Bills win. Well, none of the traditional experts at least. When asked to predict the score of the game, ChatGPT was the contrarian, predicting that Buffalo would win by a field goal.
The spread for Bills vs. Chiefs is tight (1.5 points), according to BetMGM. The money line for the Bills is +115 (bet $100 to win $115) and -135 for the Chiefs (bet $135 to win $100). The over/under is 52.5 points.
Here’s a sampling of what NFL experts are predicting for the game:
Democrat and Chronicle: Chiefs 28, Bills 24
Sal Maiorana writes: “The Bills have owned the Chiefs in the regular season, having won the last four games, three of those in Kansas City. Last year, their victory in Orchard Park was one of the best games in the NFL, but it’s tough to see that happening again.
“Kansas City’s roster is better than Buffalo’s, and the gap has widened now that the Bills are going to be without DT Ed Oliver, who joins fellow DTs DaQuan Jones and TJ Sanders on the sidelines. At linebacker, the status of Terrel Bernard and Matt Milano is unknown going into the week, and then in the secondary, they’re relying on rookies like Hairston and Jordan Hancock, inconsistent Cole Bishop, and nearly aged-out Jordan Poyer and Tre’Davious White.
“On the other side, Buffalo’s stagnant passing game is going to be a problem until it isn’t, and one has to wonder when it isn’t. Cook can carry the Bills a long way, but at some point he’ll need help and this is one of those games.”
Prediction last week: Bills 30, Panthers 20. Final score: Bills 40, Panthers 9.
AZCentral: Chiefs 27, Bills 23
Jeremy Cluff writes: “With apologies to the Patriots, Colts and Broncos, Chargers and others, this game could be an AFC Championship Game preview and the Chiefs are still the defending AFC champions. Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City will win a thriller in Buffalo.”
Prediction last week: Bills 31, Panthers 23
The Sporting News: Chiefs 28, Bills 24
Bill Bender writes: “This is a tough stretch for the Chiefs, with road games at Buffalo and Denver, games that will become more important in the race for AFC playoff seeding. By now you know the trend, Allen is 4-1 S/U in head-to-head regular-season matchups against Mahomes. The Chiefs, however, have found a new gear and are equipped to win this game on the road. The Bills are 4-4 S/U as a home underdog since 2019, so this really is a toss-up.”
Prediction last week: Bills 34, Panthers 20.
Dimers: Chiefs 27, Bills 24
Dimers writes: “After extensive simulations, our model gives the Chiefs a win probability of 59%, while the Bills have a win probability of 41%.”
Prediction last week: Bills 26, Panthers 20.
ESPN: Chiefs win
ESPN Analytics give the Bills a 43.8 shot at winning.
Prediction last week: Bills win.
BETMGM: Chiefs team total over 26.5 points
Nick Hennion writes: “Based on the Bills’ defensive issues and the leap in opponent offensive quality, my Bills vs Chiefs prediction is the Chiefs Team Total Over 26.5 Points.
“Kansas City’s defense offers the stiffest test for Buffalo this season.
“What is extra concerning about Buffalo: the team hasn’t looked good defensively against an easy schedule.
“Buffalo ranks 20th in defensive DVOA, with only two teams playing easier schedules.
“From a points standpoint, Baltimore (40) is the last team to clear this benchmark against Buffalo. That came in Week 1, creating a potential sell-high spot on the Bills defense.
“Kansas City managed only 21 points in its last trip to Buffalo. However, Rashee Rice and Isiah Pacheco both missed the game.
“Bettors saw a better version of Kansas City’s offense in the 2024 AFC Championship. The Chiefs scored 32 points, even with Rice still missing.”
ChatGPT: Bills 24, Chiefs 21
ChatGPT wrote “I can’t predict the exact score of the upcoming Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills game on November 2 2025, but based on recent matchup trends, odds, and predictions it’s likely to be a fairly close, moderately-scored contest.
“For example:
“My best ‘educated guess’ would be something like: Buffalo Bills 24, Kansas City Chiefs 21.”
— Bill Wolcott is a producer who helps cover the Buffalo Bills, high school and Rochester sports in general. The lifelong New Yorker has been a journalist for 31 years.
This article originally appeared on Rochester Democrat and Chronicle: Most Bills vs. Chiefs predictions see gloomy Sunday in WNY. But one expert disagrees
Reporting by Bill Wolcott, Rochester Democrat and Chronicle / Rochester Democrat and Chronicle
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