There is some mystery surrounding the 2026 Iowa State football team after an offseason that brought plenty of changes.
The Cyclones will have 82 newcomers on their roster this fall, the first year of the Jimmy Rogers era.
How will all of the pieces fit together? Can they put themselves in position to be bowl eligible? Those answers will be revealed once the season kicks off.
There are certainly no guarantees on paper, but here is a look at the Cyclones’ top five most winnable games on the 2026 schedule.
Iowa State football’s top five winnable games in 2026
1. Southeast Missouri Redhawks
When: Sept. 5
Where: Jack Trice Stadium (Ames, Iowa)
It’ll be an introduction to the 2026 Cyclones and the first opportunity to work through the kinks for Rogers and Co, easing into competition against an FCS opponent coming off of a 4-8 season. Iowa State will be heavy favorites here. The Cyclones might not reach deep into the playbook, but we’ll get a sense of what some of the schemes will look like against live competition, the starting lineup and substitution patterns.
2. Bowling Green Falcons
When: Sept. 26
Where: Jack Trice Stadium (Ames, Iowa)
Former NFL star running back Eddie George was hired deep into the offseason and led the Falcons to a 4-8 record in 2025 during his first season in charge. But there is some positive momentum entering his second year at the helm. The Falcons retained key playmakers on defense and made moves in the transfer portal and on the recruiting trail to help fix offensive deficiencies. Oregon transfer quarterback Austin Novosad, a former four-star recruit, might be Bowling Green’s biggest X-factor if he can make an impact right away, but the Cyclones should be able to dispatch the Falcons.
3. West Virginia Mountaineers
When: Oct. 3
Where: Jack Trice Stadium (Ames, Iowa)
The Mountaineers made big transfer portal acquisitions, especially on the offensive side of the ball. Running back Cam Cook will be a handful after rushing for an FBS-best 1,659 yards and 16 touchdowns at Jacksonville State last season, and dual-threat quarterback Michael Hawkins Jr. will shake up the quarterback room.
However, this appears to be one of the better Big 12 matchups for Iowa State and the defensive-minded Rogers. The Mountaineers will have many first-time starters, so that in-game experience might not be there yet in early October, and plenty of questions remain regarding West Virginia’s defense. The Mountaineers surrendered 30.8 points per game last season, which ranked 14th in the Big 12. They also went 0-8 when allowing 85 or more rushing yards, and Iowa State’s new offensive coordinator Tyler Roehl wants to deploy a run-heavy attack.
4. Cincinnati Bearcats
When: Nov. 14
Where: Jack Trice Stadium (Ames, Iowa)
It’s a new-look Bearcat team, which no longer has controversial quarterback Brendan Sorsby. The other offensive contributors that helped Cincinnati gash Iowa State for 474 yards en route to last season’s 38-30 win over the Cyclones have all moved on. Defensively, the Bearcats overhauled their personnel through the transfer portal and brought in a new defensive coordinator, Nate Woody, who spent the last five years at Army.
Cincinnati barely generated turnovers last season and its defense allowed the most first downs in the Big 12. The Bearcats have some things to prove this season and while they may end up a worthy adversary, being at home will help Iowa State deal with what appears to be a Bearcat roster that has taken a step down from last season.
5. UCF Knights
When: Nov. 20
Where: Acrisure Bounce House (Orlando, Florida)
Of all the Cyclones’ road games this season, this one appears to be the most winnable on paper. UCF has finished below .500 every season since joining the Big 12 in 2023. Defensively, though, it has been formidable in the last couple of years and limited opponents to 23.6 points per game last season.
The Knights have struggled on offense, but they’re hoping James Madison transfer Alonza Barnett III will remedy those woes. Make no mistake, he may provide some headaches, but if the Cyclones can slow him down, his presence might not be enough to carry UCF to a win in this game. Barnett was one of the most battle-tested quarterbacks in the transfer portal this past season after leading James Madison to a Sun Belt title and a spot in the College Football Playoff. He threw for 2,806 yards and had a 23:8 touchdown-to-interception ratio, and ran for 589 yards and four touchdowns last season.
Eugene Rapay covers Iowa State athletics for the Des Moines Register. Contact Eugene at erapay@gannett.com. Follow him on Twitter at @erapay5.
This article originally appeared on Des Moines Register: Ranking 5 most winnable Iowa State football games in 2026 season
Reporting by Eugene Rapay, Des Moines Register / Des Moines Register
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
By Eugene Rapay, Des Moines Register | USA TODAY Network
