IOWA CITY — Iowa men’s basketball is back in the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2023.
The Hawkeyes earned a 9-seed and drew 8-seed Clemson in the round of 64 (5:50 p.m. CT Friday, TNT). The Tigers went 12-6 in ACC play this season and hold a 24-10 overall record entering the NCAA Tournament.
Here’s a closer look at Iowa’s first-round opponent.
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The impact of Carter Welling’s absence
Before diving further into Clemson’s background, it’s important to address the Tigers’ injury situation, which is quite notable. Center Carter Welling suffered a torn ACL against Wake Forest in the ACC Tournament.
This is a consequential development for the Tigers.
Welling was one of Clemson’s best players this season. He ranks second on the team in points per game (10.2) and first in rebounds per game (5.4). Welling made 24 starts for the Tigers this season.
This could make Clemson a more manageable matchup for Iowa, considering interior defense is not a strength for a Hawkeye team that lacks frontcourt size. Welling, listed at 6-foot-11 and 240 pounds, is the type of physical force that could’ve given Iowa trouble around the rim.
Iowa’s pair of matchups with Ohio State this season can paint a picture of the difference an interior presence can make.
When Iowa beat Ohio State handily 74-57 at Carver-Hawkeye Arena, the Buckeyes were without Christoph Tilly. But the 7-footer clearly made a difference when he was back in the lineup for a rematch in the Big Ten Tournament, scoring 16 points in a three-point win over Iowa.
There were other factors as to why Iowa won the first and lost the second matchup, including the location of the two games, but it’s not difficult to see how much a big man like Tilly can tilt the court in favor of Iowa’s opponent.
The Tigers still have some size in Nick Davidson and Jake Wahlin, both of whom are listed at 6-foot-10 and play in the neighborhood of 20 minutes per game. But the loss of Welling is a hit to Clemson.
Clemson’s resume
Like Iowa, Clemson has been trending in the wrong direction recently. The Tigers were 20-4 at one point, but are just 4-6 over their last 10 games, which includes a four-game losing streak in February. Similarly, the Hawkeyes were 18-5 at one point but are just 3-7 over their last 10 games.
Clemson played a much more challenging non-conference schedule than Iowa, though the fact that wins over Ole Miss, Xavier and Grand Canyon did not age well is out of the Hawkeyes’ control.
Three of the teams Clemson played during its non-conference slate made the NCAA Tournament — Georgia, Alabama and BYU. The Tigers went 1-2 in those games, though each was decided by six points or less. Clemson beat Georgia in overtime, but lost to Alabama by six and BYU by three.
As a measuring stick for how Clemson has fared against elite competition, the Tigers lost to Duke twice this season — once on the road by 13 points and once in the ACC Tournament by 12 points (without Welling).
The race to 66
The matchup with Iowa has the potential to be a low-possession, grind-it-out type of game. The Tigers rank 333rd in adjusted tempo this season, according to KenPom, while Iowa is even slower at 357th.
Defense is clearly the Tigers’ stronger end of the floor. Clemson is 20th in adjusted defensive efficiency, according to KenPom, while its adjusted offensive efficiency ranks 71st. For comparison, Iowa is 31st in adjusted offensive efficiency and 30th in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Hawkeyes have been rather hit-and-miss offensively, so a Clemson defense that has contained opponents just 41.9% from the field and 32.6% from deep could very well present some challenges.
Sixty-five is an important number to know. The Tigers are a perfect 17-0 this season when they hold their opponents to 65 points or less. When their opponents score more than 65 points, Clemson is 7-10.
Offensively, the Tigers feature a well-balanced scoring attack. Even without Welling and guard Zac Foster (who appeared in just 12 games this season), Clemson has seven players who average at least 5.4 points per game.
That’s led by 6-foot-7 forward RJ Godfrey, who averages 11.9 points per game. The aforementioned 6-foot-10 Nick Davidson averages 9.1 points and 4.1 rebounds per game while shooting 35.4% from deep. Dillon Hunter can impact the game in a variety of ways, averaging 7.5 points, 3.8 rebounds and a team-high three assists per game this season.
Clemson’s field-goal (45.3%) and 3-point (34.1%) percentages are not eye-popping. But they do a commendable job taking care of the ball, committing just 9.4 turnovers per game. Meanwhile, Iowa has forced its opponents to commit 13.4 turnovers per game this season. The turnover battle could be an X-factor if this is a game won in the margins.
Brad Brownell has Clemson program rolling
With head coach Brad Brownell in his 16th season at the helm, the stability at Clemson makes it one of the outliers in college basketball. Clemson is not the flashiest program in a conference that features blue bloods, but the Tigers have quietly become a success story.
This is the third season in a row that Clemson has made the NCAA Tournament, and Brownell has led the Tigers to a deep March run during that span. In 2024, Clemson went to the Elite Eight as a 6-seed. There are still remnants of that team on the Tigers’ current roster in Godfrey and Hunter, who are now in larger roles. They have seen what it takes to make serious noise in the NCAA Tournament.
Iowa vs. Clemson prediction
All things considered, this isn’t the worst matchup Iowa could’ve drawn.
Clemson is down one of its best players. The Tigers haven’t been playing great lately. And while the narrative could shift depending on how ACC teams fare in the NCAA Tournament, they are not coming from a conference as stacked as the Big Ten.
If the Hawkeyes have a letdown, which is very possible given their track record this season, Clemson is good enough to make them pay for it. But this is a very winnable 8/9 matchup for Iowa, which is searching for its first NCAA Tournament win since 2021.
One of the keys for Iowa in the NCAA Tournament is defense. If the Hawkeyes play well on the defensive end, they’ll likely give themselves a chance. If not, they’re in a more vulnerable position.
Iowa 67, Clemson 63
Follow Tyler Tachman on X @Tyler_T15, contact via email at ttachman@gannett.com
This article originally appeared on Des Moines Register: In-depth scout of Clemson, Iowa basketball’s NCAA Tournament opponent
Reporting by Tyler Tachman, Des Moines Register / Des Moines Register
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