The National Hurricane Center is tracking two systems in the Atlantic basin, according to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center.
Erin strengthened as expected into the Atlantic season’s first hurricane just before 11 a.m. Aug. 15.
It’s forecast to grow into a Category 4 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 140 mph over the weekend. A major hurricane is a Category 3 or stronger, with maximum sustained winds of at least 111 mph.
➤ Track all active storms
➤ Weather alerts via text: Sign up to get updates about current storms and weather events by location
In the Gulf, Invest 98L is now not no longer expected to develop before the system moves inland over northeastern Mexico or southern Texas this afternoon or evening.
Here’s the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center as of 2 p.m., Aug. 15:
Where is Hurricane Erin going?
Special note on the NHC cone: The forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time.
NOAA hurricane tracker: See spaghetti models for Hurricane Erin
Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
➤ Track Hurricane Erin
What tropical waves, disturbances are in Atlantic basin now?
Invest 98L spaghetti models
Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
➤ Track Invest 98L
What is an invest?
Short for investigation, the National Hurricane Center uses the term invest for areas of low pressure it is monitoring for potential development into a tropical depression or storm.
Invests are not tropical depressions or tropical storms. They’re usually clusters of showers and thunderstorms, and just because they’ve been designated as an invest does not guarantee they’ll strengthen into a tropical storm or hurricane.
Invests run from 90 to 99, followed by a letter: L for the Atlantic basin and E for those in the eastern Pacific. After 99, it starts over again and the next invest would be 90.
Once something has been designated as an invest, specialized data sets and computer models can begin, including scheduling Hurricane Hunter aircraft missions and running spaghetti models.
What do the colored, hatched areas on the NOAA map mean?
The hatched areas on the National Hurricane Center’s tropical outlook map indicate “areas where a tropical cyclone — which could be a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane — could develop,” said National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Jamie Rhome.
The colors make it visibly clear how likely a system could develop, with yellow being low, orange medium, and red high.
The National Hurricane Center generally doesn’t issue tropical advisories until there is a named storm, but there is an exception.
“If a system is near land and there is potential for development, the National Hurricane Center won’t wait before it issues advisories, even if the system hasn’t become an actual storm. This gives residents time to prepare,” Rhome said.
Is Hurricane Erin coming to Florida, what is its path?
No. Erin is moving west-northwest and the center of the storm is expected to remain east of Florida.
Remember, forecasts can change so it’s always best to be prepared.
➤ Excessive rainfall forecast
“While the threat of direct impacts in the Bahamas and along the east coast of the United States appears to be gradually decreasing, there will still be a significant risk of dangerous surf and rip currents along western Atlantic beaches next week,” the National Hurricane Center said.
Invest 98L could strengthen into tropical depression. Who could feel impacts?
Chances for tropical development have increased for Invest 98L, which could become a short-lived tropical depression before it moves inland this afternoon or evening over northeastern Mexico of southern Texas.
Heavy rainfall associated with Invest 98L could lead to isolated or scattered cases of flooding Friday into Saturday, especially in urban and poor drainage areas today, the National Weather Service Brownsville, Texas, posted on X.
Rainfall estimates range from 2.2 to 2.4 inches along and east of US-281/I-69C by Friday afternoon, decreasing to 1.75 inches Saturday, Aug. 16.
A flood watch remains in effect for Cameron and Southern Hidalgo counties on Friday.
Increased rip currents and swells also remain a concern along the Texas coast, the NWS said.
Florida weather radar for Aug. 15, 2025
Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida
When is the Atlantic hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said.
The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America, as the Gulf of Mexico is now known in the U.S. per an order from President Trump. NOAA and the National Hurricane Center are now using Gulf of America on its maps and in its advisories.
When is the peak of hurricane season?
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
Hurricane names for 2025 season
Here are the names for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, along with how to pronounce them. The first hurricane of the season typically forms Aug. 11.
National Hurricane Center map: See what forecasters watching now
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:
Interactive map: Hurricanes, tropical storms that have passed near your city
Stay informed. Get weather alerts via text
What’s next?
We will update our tropical weather coverage daily.
Download your local site’s app to ensure you’re always connected to the news. And look for our special subscription offers here.
This story has been updated to include new information.
This article originally appeared on Naples Daily News: Erin strengthens into hurricane. Invest 98L could become tropical depression in Gulf
Reporting by Cheryl McCloud, USA TODAY NETWORK – Florida / Naples Daily News
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
