It was this week, 25 years ago, when Pocono was the stage for one of NASCAR’s rare occurrences of that age.
It was mid-June of 2000 when Dale Earnhardt got the bum’s rush on the final lap, entering the final turn, with the checkers in sight. Jeremy Mayfield did the honors, executing a textbook bump-and-run to get the third of his five Cup wins before his career flamed out in a big way (do your own research because we’re here to gamble, not air dirty laundry).
You couldn’t consider it an upset victory since Mayfield had a couple wins and was running with the lead pack regularly. The only surprise was the how and who — how Mayfield did it and who paid the price.
Pocono isn’t a place for shockers. Chris Buescher (with Front Row Motorsports) and Ryan Blaney (Wood Brothers) won back-to-back at Pocono in 2016-17, but in the 12 races since, it’s been nothing but pre-race favorites puttering into Victory Lane.
Pocono Raceway is such a tri-oval it’s actually triangle-shaped. And it’s 2.5 miles around, with the three corners banked rather low at just 6, 8 and 14 degrees. Much like Indy, a car needs to turn well, not just go fast.
In other words, don’t go too far down the odds board looking for a potential payday.
Could Denny Hamlin possibly be well-rested?
+425: Denny Hamlin
+550: Kyle Larson
+650: Ryan Blaney, William Byron
+850: Christopher Bell
+1000: Tyler Reddick
The bettors seem to think New Dad Denny will arrive with some reserve horsepower, given how he took last weekend off. And Reddick? He’s winless this season and has one top-10 since mid-April (and that was a ninth!). But there’s this: In the three Pocono races of the Next Gen era, he’s finished second, second and sixth.
Chase Elliott leaves the group of favorites
+1200: Chase Elliott
+1750: Joey Logano, Ty Gibbs, Chris Buescher
+2000: Brad Keselowski, Carson Hocevar, Ross Chastain
+2500: Kyle Busch, Bubba Wallace, Chase Briscoe
Our boy Billy Clyde won at Pocono three years ago, and was ninth and 10th the next two years. Add a chicane and maybe one big sweeping right-hander at Pocono, and Chase might’ve remained in the lead pack of favorites like he was last week. He’s double-dipping this weekend and, for what it’s worth, co-favored in Saturday’s Xfinity Series race.
Three Daytona 500 winner way down here
+3000: Alex Bowman
+4000: Josh Berry, Austin Cindric
+5000: Erik Jones, Ryan Preece
+7500: Ricky Stenhouse, Daniel Suarez
+10000: Zane Smith, Michael McDowell, AJ Allmendinger
Cindric, Stenhouse and McDowell have all won a very famous race on a 2.5-mile track. Pocono is also 2.5 miles around. Your odometer can be deceiving, however.
Sorry SVG, nothing but left-hand turns at Pocono
+15000: Shane van Gisbergen, Noah Gragson
+20000: Austin Dillon, John Hunter Nemechek
+25000: Riley Herbst, Cole Custer, Todd Gilliland, Justin Haley
+50000: Ty Dillon
+100000: Brennan Poole, Cody Ware
It’s not often you find last week’s winner dwelling down among the betting public’s bottom feeders. That alone tells you how much of a road-course specialist Shane van Gisbergen remains at this point of his NASCAR career.
— Email Ken Willis at ken.willis@news-jrnl.com
This article originally appeared on The Daytona Beach News-Journal: NASCAR betting odds for Pocono: Remember when Dale Earnhardt got dumped by Jeremy Mayfield?
Reporting by Ken Willis, Daytona Beach News-Journal / The Daytona Beach News-Journal
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
