The second and final off-week of the season has come and gone, and 14 consecutive weeks of Cup Series racing remain in the 2026 season.
That’s roughly three and a half months, or seven fortnights, if you prefer.
After the next four weekends — two Saturday races and two on Sundays — we’ll narrow down the championship contenders and begin the playoffs, which aren’t the playoffs anymore.
“The Chase” is the new favored term, harkening back to the an early NASCAR postseason label: “Chase for the Championship,” a catchy little phrase that, unfortunately, lasted just long enough for the series sponsor to clear the throat and suggest, um, “Chase for the Nextel Cup” might be better — alliteration be damned.
No title sponsor these days, just a plain ol’ Cup Series, so “The Chase” it is, and all that’s left to do over the next month of Sundays (oh, and Saturdays) is determine which 16 drivers and teams will do the chasin’.
We’ll take a look at the probables and possibles, as well as some whose high preseason hopes have gone behind the wall.
First Gear: Do you remember Chase Elliott?
Four drivers have mathematically clinched Chase spots: Denny Hamlin, Tyler Reddick (remember him?), Ryan Blaney and Ty Gibbs. Four more are getting there: Carson Hocevar, Chase Briscoe, Chase Elliott (do you also remember him?) and Kyle Larson (and him?).
Lounging in a decent bit of comfort, though with one eye toward oncoming traffic, are the next four: Chris Buescher, Christopher Bell, Daniel Suarez, and the former perennial contender known as William Byron.
And now it starts to get more interesting when we look at the last four in the current Top 16 and the first four on the outside. Just over 100 points separate Joey Logano (13th) and Michael McDowell (20th), with just 38 separating Austin Cindric (16th) and Ryan Preece (17th).
To remind everyone how quickly things can change, we have to look at Logano and his last four races, which have seen him go from 20th to 13th with finishes of 12th, ninth, first and third.
You thought your July was hot? Joey averaged some 44 points per race last month — 175 in all — buoyed by a North Wilkesboro win that earned him 73 points, 18 of which came from stage finishes of third and first.
Second Gear: NASCAR disappointments
Remember a few minutes ago when we teased talk about the Behind the Wall Gang? The guys who can’t all eight cylinders firing simultaneously?
You might want to count Preece among them, though he’s within close range of entering the Top 16 and chasing a pennant. He won the season-opening Clash and sailed into the regular season with the wind at his back. Since then, he’s had just five top-10s in 22 starts and just as many top-fives as you and I. Amazing, yet he’s been “halfway decent” often enough to still be in the Chase hunt.
But Ross Chastain? Goodness. Ross the Boss is a mess. Just four top-10s and he currently sits 21st in points. There’s no more “win and you’re in” with the new Chase format, so he needs to make up 84 points in August.
And he’s not even the saddest story out of Trackhouse Racing this year.
Speaking of poor ol’ Connor Zilisch …
Third Gear: Connor Zilisch having worst season ever?
One of these days someone (ahem) needs to put his head down and do the research. It’d be subjective in large part, not just a numbers game, so corners could be cut and rounded off with opinion. Any takers?
Not yet? Well, if anyone is interested, here’s the premise: Adjusting for expectations, Connor Zilisch might be having the worst season in NASCAR Cup Series history.
The Can’t Miss Kid keeps whiffing. His rookie season has been pure misery. It’s as if he misjudged the entrance ramp and ended up in a cow pasture — and not in grass!
But here’s the thing: Hardly any of it is his fault. His first full-time Cup season has coincided with Trackhouse Racing’s inability to tune frontline equipment — sure, Shane van Gisbergen has improved on ovals, but Connor Z and Ross the Boss can’t keep up.
And you know what’s worse than Connor Z’s cars? His luck. It’s damn near comical how dark clouds send thunderbolts his way. The results page lists him as crashing out of a third of the races so far, but that doesn’t count a few more times when he was dragged into trouble but the damage wasn’t bad enough for an early exit.
Of the 34 racers who have started all 22 races, only one has fewer points. And it’s not Alex Bowman, because he missed four races yet still has 94 more points than Zilisch.
We know Connor Z is still capable, since his nine O’Reilly starts this year have produced two wins and seven top-10s — driving for JR Motorsports, however. And everyone seems to recognize it, considering his name was first on a lot of lists to replace Alex Bowman at Hendrick in 2028, the year after Connor Z’s Trackhouse contract ends.
The year remaining on that contract might have something to do with Bowman’s return in 2027 for one final season. Or it might not.
Fourth Gear: Iowa leads off three weeks of Honest Ovals
Potentially more bad news for Connor Z: The next three races are scheduled to run a combined 1,051 laps, which is a lot of straights and turns for a guy targeted by gremlins. The next three weeks bring Iowa, Richmond and New Hampshire, three tracks measuring between three-quarters of a mile and one mile.
“Honest ovals,” we like to call such things around here. And while NASCAR has wrenched here and there to improve the Next Gen era’s short-track woes, it’s been hit-and-miss this year. That’s an improvement, by the way.
Iowa seems to be the best bet for a high-quality race over these next three weeks, which will lead into the regular-season ender on a thoroughly dishonest yet highly entertaining (tri-)oval at Daytona.
Email Ken Willis at ken.willis@news-jrnl.com
This article originally appeared on The Daytona Beach News-Journal: NASCAR back in gear. Bubble watch continues. Connor Zilisch is historically bad this year
Reporting by Ken Willis, Daytona Beach News-Journal / The Daytona Beach News-Journal
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
By Ken Willis, Daytona Beach News-Journal | USA TODAY Network
