The Miami Dolphins’ schedule is insane.
In fact, data analyst Warren Sharp says the 2026 Miami Dolphins NFL schedule is the second-hardest in the entire NFL.
Ugh.
No wonder 10 recent 2027 NFL mock drafts all have the Dolphins picking No. 1 or No. 2 overall.
The bright side?
Only the Cardinals have a tougher schedule based on expected win total of opponents in 2026.
This is important because some pooh-pooh strength of schedule data based on total wins of opponents from the previous season.
Sharp looked at Miami’s opponents and created a chart showing only the Jets (twice) and Raiders as opponents they should be favored against.
Look at the projected wins for these opponents: Buffalo (10.3, twice), Patriots (9.7, twice), Bears (9.4), Bengals (9.7), Lions (10.5), Chiefs (10.4), Chargers (10.3), Broncos (9.7), Colts (8.3), Packers (10.3), Vikings (8.6), 49ers (10.4).
My goodness. What a slate for first-year head coach Jeff Hafley.
Miami Dolphins schedule: 2nd toughest in NFL
A record of 6-11 or better in 2026 would be an outstanding achievement from the rebuilding Dolphins this season.
Most experts are calling for 4-13 or perhaps 5-12.
The official NFL schedule, with dates and times, should be released the week of Wednesday, May 13, although the league has suggested it could be pushed back into the next week, if necessary.
In looking at Sharp’s analysis from last year, 9 of 12 toughest and easiest schedule predictions played out accurately, as the toughest schedule teams went under betting line expectations and the easiest schedule teams went over betting line expectations.
Miami had, statistically, one of the easiest schedules in the NFL last season.
But that bubble burst.
Mike McDaniel was fired after Miami went 7-10, with bad losses to opponents like the Panthers and Browns.
Miami Dolphins, NFL schedule, to be released soon
Sharp says that in 2026, the Browns have the fourth-easiest schedule Jets have the NFL’s fifth-easiest schedule. That could come into play in draft order.
“This is terrible news for the Jets,” sports analyst Jason McIntyre of The Herd posted on social media. “Dolphins weaker roster and easier schedule = Arch (or best QB at 1).”
Arch is, of course, Texas quarterback Arch Manning.
Here are the media organizations that, at this time, are projecting a Top 2 pick for the Dolphins in 2027: ESPN, The Athletic, Sports Illustrated, CBS, PFF, Fox Sports, Tankathon, SB Nation, Athlon and Bleacher Report.
A lot can happen between now and the next NFL Draft.
Stay tuned.
Joe Schad is a journalist covering the Miami Dolphins and the NFL at The Palm Beach Post. You can reach him at jschad@pbpost.com and follow him on Instagram and on X @schadjoe. Sign up for Joe’s free weekly Dolphins Pulse Newsletter. Help support our work by subscribing today.
This article originally appeared on Palm Beach Post: Miami Dolphins’ brutal schedule 2nd-hardest in NFL, says expert
Reporting by Joe Schad, Palm Beach Post / Palm Beach Post
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
