Tropical cyclones hound Florida more than any other state in the U.S. or region in the Caribbean and Gulf with a historic total of 274 named storms coming within 50 miles of its saltwater borders, according to a Colorado State University database.
It also has some of the highest named storm encounters by county with Monroe’s trailing string of islands in the Keys contributing to it ranking highest out of the nation’s coastal counties for blustery drive-bys or devastating landfalls with 103 in the CSU data.
Miami-Dade, Brevard, Palm Beach, Collier and Broward are all in the top 20 most storm-prone counties in the country.
So, it should be no surprise that Florida’s counties also rank high every year for the probability of a named storm, hurricane or major hurricane coming within 50 miles of its coast.
What Florida county has the highest hurricane potential for 2026?
Monroe tops the list for the 2026 hurricane season with a 39% probability that a named storm will harry its residents, a 22% chance of a hurricane, and a 12% chance for a major hurricane of Category 3 strength or higher.
“We’re basically like a little thumb sticking out into the ocean,” said Stephanie Hartman, communications director at the Florida Division of Emergency Management during the National Hurricane Conference in Orlando. “That means we have no room for complacency.”
Colorado State University released its 43rd annual seasonal hurricane forecast on April 9 calling for a slightly below normal season with 13 named storms and six hurricanes. Of the six hurricanes two are forecast to escalate to 111 mph Category 3 storms or higher.
An average hurricane season has 14 named storms and seven hurricanes, of which three become major hurricanes.
Because the forecast is for less than average activity, the probabilities of a county having a storm bluster by within 50 miles are also lower than historic climatology. Monroe, for example, averages a 52% chance of a storm coming within 50 miles, compared to the 39% chance this year.
What Colorado State’s 2026 forecast really means for Florida
Still, this year’s possibilities should raise eyebrows in a season where guards may be down after a year with no hurricane landfalls and a storm-killing El Niño developing.
Here are the top 10 Florida counties with the highest probabilities in 2026 for a named storm, hurricane or major hurricane coming within 50 miles.
CSU began calculating the impacts of tropical cyclones for each state and county in 2021using the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Historical Hurricane Tracks website, which dates back to 1880.
“Long-term statistics show that, on average, the more active the overall Atlantic basin hurricane season is, the greater the probability of a U.S. hurricane landfall,” CSU’s website notes.
What are Florida’s chances of seeing a hurricane landfall in 2026?
According to CSU, there is a 74% probability that a named storm will pass within 50 miles of Florida’s coast and a 21% chance that a major hurricane could make the same trip during the 2026 season. The climatological average for a named storm is 86% and 29% for a major hurricane.
North Carolina has the second highest probability of a named storm coming within 50 miles this year at 54% with Louisiana coming in third at 52%.
CSU isn’t the only seasonal forecast that considers where potential tropical cyclones will have an impact.
AccuWeather’s hurricane season prediction ranked Florida’s Gulf Coast from near Tampa through the Panhandle as having the highest risk from a tropical cyclone this season. The rest of Florida’s coast from about Fort Myers through Jacksonville has a near average risk of getting hit by a landfalling storm.
AccuWeather is forecasting 11 to 16 named storms, four to seven hurricanes and two to four major hurricanes will form during the 2026 season, which begins June 1.
What recent hurricanes have hit Florida?
Since 2020, the Gulf Coast of Florida has suffered the brunt of the hurricane landfalls with Milton, Helene and Debby in 2024, Idalia in 2023, and Ian in 2022. Hurricane Sally, which technically made landfall in Sept. 2020 near Gulf Shores, Alabama, still impacted the western reaches of Florida’s Panhandle.
During the same period, the east coast had only landfalling hurricane with Nicole, which hit near Vero Beach as a Cat 1 storm in November 2022.
Palm Beach County hasn’t had a landfalling hurricane since Hurricane David in 1979 where it made a “very brief landfall near West Palm Beach,” before chewing a path north along the coast, according to the National Weather Service. An unnamed Category 4 storm hit in August 1949. That was preceded by a Category 3 hurricane in 1933, and the devastating 1928 Okeechobee Hurricane, which killed an estimated 2,500 people.
But it doesn’t take a landfalling storm to feel impacts. Hurricanes Frances and Jeanne in 2004 and Wilma in 2005 knocked out electricity for millions of people for weeks on the east coast. Wilma, which made landfall near Cape Romano on the southwest coast of the state, buzz sawed east, tossing hundreds of railroad cars from their tracks in Clewiston, leveling a Lake Worth church, blowing trailer parks to bits and blasting windows out of condos on A1A.
“Every hurricane season can play out in very different ways,” said National Hurricane Center Director Michael Brennan about the lack of U.S. landfalling hurricanes in 2025. “There was almost no activity in the Gulf, the Caribbean was quiet except for the catastrophic impacts of Melissa.”
Melissa made landfall in Jamaica in October as a Category 5 hurricane.
Other counties in Florida that ranked in the top 20 for the probability of a named storm, hurricane or major hurricane coming within 50 miles include:
Kimberly Miller is a journalist for the USA TODAY NETWORK FLORIDA. She covers weather, the environment and critters as the Embracing Florida reporter. If you have news tips, please send them to kmiller@pbpost.com. You can get all of Florida’s best content directly in your inbox each weekday by signing up for the free newsletter, Florida TODAY, at palmbeachpost.com/newsletters.
Kimberly Miller is a journalist for the USA TODAY NETWORK FLORIDA. She covers weather, the environment and critters as the Embracing Florida reporter. If you have news tips, please send them to kmiller@pbpost.com. You can get all of Florida’s best content directly in your inbox each weekday by signing up for the free newsletter, Florida TODAY, at palmbeachpost.com/newsletters.
This article originally appeared on Palm Beach Post: Interactive county map shows highest 2026 Florida hurricane potential
Reporting by Kimberly Miller, USA TODAY NETWORK – Florida / Palm Beach Post
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
