The tropics are busy in the eastern Pacific, with Tropical Storm Erick expected to rapidly intensify and could be at or near major hurricane strength when it makes landfall in Mexico.
In the Atlantic basin, conditions remain quiet. The National Hurricane Center is monitoring four tropical waves, including one in the western Caribbean.
The first named storm in the Atlantic basin will be Andrea.
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In the eastern Pacific, hurricane watches and warnings, along with a tropical storm warning, have been issued ahead of Erick, which expected to become a hurricane later tonight or early June 18.
Meanwhile, fewer showers and storms are expected across Florida. Temperatures are expected to range from the upper 80s to low 90s, with heat index up to 102 in some locations.
Here’s the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center as of 2 a.m. June 17.
What tropical waves, disturbances are in Atlantic basin now?
The National Hurricane Center is monitoring four tropical waves in the Atlantic basin, including one in the western Caribbean.
“The average first named storm in the Atlantic is June 20, but development over the central and eastern basin looks unfavorable through June at this time,” said AccuWeather lead hurricane forecaster Alex DaSilva.
Tropical Storm Erick expected to rapidly intensify into Category 2 or 3 hurricane before Mexico landfall
Tropical Storm Erick is expected to rapidly intensify and could be near or at major hurricane strength by the time it makes landfall late June 18. Wind speeds are predicted to hit 110 mph within the next 48 hours.
A major hurricane is a Category 3 or higher storm, with maximum sustained winds of at least 111 mph.
Hurricane watches and warnings, along with tropical storm warnings, have been issued for some areas.
Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area late June 18 and June 19 and possible in the hurricane watch area on June 19.
Erick could produce rainfall totals of 8 to 16 inches, with maximum totals of 20 inches in some areas, the National Hurricane Center said.
Dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast.
Tropical Storm Erick path tracker
This forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time.
Tropical Storm Erick spaghetti models
Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest-performing models to help make its forecasts.
Why are the tropics so quiet in the Atlantic?
There are two reasons the Atlantic basin is quiet: dry air and wind shear, according to AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno.
Dry air is spread in a huge band across the northern Atlantic, as well as off the coast of Africa.
During this time of year, most tropical systems develop closer to the United States. While there are clusters of thunderstorms in the southwestern Caribbean, anything trying to head north toward Florida and the U.S. will run into wind shear, Rayno said.
So expect tropical conditions to remain quiet through the remainder of this week.
Dry air, including associated Saharan dust, along with wind shear, both prevent tropical systems from developing or strengthening, essentially cutting off the fuel storms need.
Florida weather radar for June 17, 2025
Florida weather forecast for June 17, 2025
Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida
When is the Atlantic hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said.
The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America, as the Gulf of Mexico is now known in the U.S. per an order from President Trump. NOAA and the National Hurricane Center are now using Gulf of America on its maps and in its advisories.
When does hurricane season start? When is the peak?
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center. Hurricane season starts June 1 in the Atlantic basin.
National Hurricane Center map: See what forecasters watching now
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:
Why does NHC say ‘tropical cyclone’ on its maps instead of hurricane or tropical storm?
Tropical cyclone is the generic term used by the National Weather Service, NOAA and the National Hurricane Center for any tropical system, even if it’s in the tropical Atlantic basin.
To be more precise, a tropical cyclone is a “rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or subtropical waters and has closed, low-level circulation,” NOAA sadi.
Once maximum sustained winds reach 74 mph, what it is called is determined by where it originated:
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This story was updated to add new information.
This article originally appeared on The Daytona Beach News-Journal: Erick expected to rapidly intensify before landfall in Mexico. See how hot Florida will get
Reporting by Cheryl McCloud, USA TODAY NETWORK – Florida / The Daytona Beach News-Journal
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