As the tropical season ramps up, storms are beginning to make themselves more notable along the Florida and the Southeast coast. The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a low-pressure system in the Atlantic just off North Florida.
The system is expected to move west into the Gulf by late Tuesday. Chances for development are currently 20% within the next 48 hours, and 30% over the next 7 days. Tropical/subtropical development with this system, if any, is likely to occur west of our area and move westward further into the Gulf and away from the region, said Danny DuBois, a meteorologist from the National Weather Service in Jacksonville.
What is the weather in Jacksonville this week?
The National Weather Service, calls for a 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, mainly after 2 p.m. July 14. Skies will be partly sunny, with a high near 93 degrees and heat index values potentially reaching 105. Winds will shift from the northwest to the northeast at 6 to 11 mph, with gusts up to 17 mph.
Additionally, strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across Northeast Florida between 4 and 9 p.m., bringing hazards such as frequent lightning, wind gusts of 40 to 60 mph, and locally heavy downpours. Rainfall amounts could range from a tenth to a quarter of an inch, with higher totals possible in stronger storms.
Will it rain this week in Jacksonville?
“Regardless of development, elevated chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue daily, especially from about the I-10 corridor southward in northeast FL. This will lead to locally heavy rainfall and therefore risks for localized flooding through most of this week,” says DuBois.
Additionally, he predicts heavy rainfall is expected locally through the weekend. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is highlighting a marginal to slight (level 1-2 out of 5) of excessive rainfall at a given location today and Tuesday, and a marginal risk towards the I-75 corridor for Wednesday and Thursday. Below are some forecast graphics from the National Weather Service in Jacksonville, as well as from the WPC & National Hurricane Center (NHC).
This week in Jacksonville will be hot, humid, and stormy, with daily chances of showers and thunderstorms, especially during the afternoon and evening hours. High temperatures will range from the low to mid-90s, with heat index values peaking between 102–105°F. Storm chances increase midweek, with the highest rain potential on Wednesday (80% chance) and continuing through Sunday. Expect brief heavy downpours, gusty winds, and lightning during storms. Overnight lows will stay warm in the mid to upper 70s. Be prepared for changing conditions and stay alert for severe weather alerts.
What does that mean for Florida?
Get ready for a wet week; make that a very wet week, with a potential for localized flooding, rough surf and dangerous rip currents.
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The next named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season will be Dexter.
Historically, the fourth named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season arrives Aug. 15. The last two named storms of the season — Barry and Chantal — developed earlier than normal.
Here’s the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center as of 8 a.m., July 14:
Area of low pressure expected to move across Florida
An area of low pressure located offshore the east coast of Florida is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms, according to the 8 a.m. advisory from the National Hurricane Center.
This disturbance is forecast to move westward across Florida during the next day or so, and into the northeastern Gulf by late Tuesday.
Environmental conditions appear favorable and some gradual development of this system is possible while it moves westward to west-northwestward across the northeastern and north-central portions of the Gulf during the middle to latter part of this week.
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could produce localized flash flooding over portions of Florida and the north-central Gulf coast through the middle to latter portion of this week.
What do the colored, hatched areas on the NOAA map mean?
The hatched areas on the National Hurricane Center’s tropical outlook map indicate “areas where a tropical cyclone — which could be a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane — could develop,” said National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Jamie Rhome.
The colors make it visibly clear how likely a system could develop, with yellow being low, orange medium, and red high.
The National Hurricane Center generally doesn’t issue tropical advisories until there is a named storm, but there is an exception.
“If a system is near land and there is potential for development, the National Hurricane Center won’t wait before it issues advisories, even if the system hasn’t become an actual storm. This gives residents time to prepare,” Rhome said.
What impacts are expected in Florida?
➤ Excessive rainfall forecast
“Regardless of development, an increase in showers and thunderstorms can occur from the Carolinas into Florida and along parts of the Gulf coast which can lead to localized flooding. Rough surf and rip currents can also occur,” according to AccuWeather.
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➤ Excessive rainfall forecast
“Heavy rainfall with flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas are possible, regardless of development,” the National Weather Service Tampa Bay agreed.
Expect rain chances in the Tallahassee area to increase Wednesday and Thursday, the National Hurricane Center Tallahassee said. On July 14, damaging wind gusts in the afternoon could accompany strong storms, along with some hail.
Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected Monday, July 14, and could bring frequent lightning, strong winds of 40 to 60 mph and locally heavy downpours, according to the National Weather Service Jacksonville.
Florida weather radar for July 14, 2025
Florida weather forecast for July 14, 2025
Florida weather forecast for July 14, 2025
2025 hurricane season so far
An average Atlantic hurricane season has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.
Here’s when this year’s named storms have developed, compared to historical averages:
Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida
Hurricane names for 2025 season
Here are the names for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, along with how to pronounce them:
When is the Atlantic hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said.
The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America, as the Gulf of Mexico is now known in the U.S. per an order from President Trump. NOAA and the National Hurricane Center are now using Gulf of America on its maps and in its advisories.
When is the peak of hurricane season?
National Hurricane Center map: See what forecasters watching now
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:
Why does NHC say ‘tropical cyclone’ on its maps instead of hurricane or tropical storm?
Tropical cyclone is the generic term used by the National Weather Service, NOAA and the National Hurricane Center for any tropical system, even if it’s in the tropical Atlantic basin.
To be more precise, a tropical cyclone is a “rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or subtropical waters and has closed, low-level circulation,” NOAA sadi.
Once maximum sustained winds reach 74 mph, what it is called is determined by where it originated:
Interactive map: Hurricanes, tropical storms that have passed near your city
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This article originally appeared on Florida Times-Union: Hurricane Center monitors tropical system in Atlantic. Possible Jacksonville impacts
Reporting by Doris Alvarez Cea and Cheryl McCloud, Jacksonville Florida Times-Union / Florida Times-Union
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
