This is a pivotal season for Florida State football and coach Mike Norvell.
Actually, “pivotal” may not go far enough.
After back-to-back disappointing seasons, 2026 shapes up as a defining year for both Norvell and a program desperately seeking to reclaim its place among college football’s elite. Expectations may vary, but many diehard FSU fans believe the Seminoles are closer to a breakthrough than their recent record and naysayers suggest.
FSU came painfully close to turning the corner in 2025, only to see another disappointing season slip away.
The Seminoles finished 5-7 and missed a bowl game after a promising start unraveled in October. Several narrow defeats proved costly, including a double-overtime loss to Virginia, a six-point setback against Miami, a three-point defeat to Pitt and a seven-point loss to Stanford.
The frustration of a 7-17 record over the past two seasons, coupled with an inability to win on the road, prompted a sweeping internal review of the program. The response included staff changes, new faces in key roles and a significant investment aimed at getting FSU back on track.
Will FSU reach a bowl game in 2026, Norvell retain his job?
FSU enters its Aug. 29 season opener against New Mexico at Doak Campbell Stadium with renewed confidence following a physical and productive fall camp.
Norvell addressed the game’s most important position by bringing in Auburn transfer Ashton Daniels, a veteran quarterback expected to provide experience and stability. He also overhauled the offensive line through the transfer portal, highlighted by the addition of tackle Xavier Chaplin. USA TODAY recently listed Chaplin among the ACC’s 10 most impactful transfers entering the 2026 season.
At the skill positions, marquee returnee Duce Robinson headlines a talented receiving corps that includes Florida High product and speedster Machi Danzy. The Seminoles also fortified their backfield with rising star Ousmane Kromah and Texas transfer Quintrevion Wisner.
Defensively, linebacker Chris Jones arrived in Tallahassee with a proven track record after leading the Sun Belt Conference with 135 tackles at Southern Miss. Jones has quickly emerged as one of the defense’s most physical players and a tone-setter for the unit.
The Desir twins anchor an eight-man defensive line rotation, while the secondary could feature a mix of personnel throughout the season. Veteran Ja’Bril Rawls returns to provide leadership and stability on the back end.
So what does all of this mean for Norvell’s future at FSU?
The seventh-year coach enters the season atop ESPN’s annual “Hot Seat” rankings for the second consecutive year. His lucrative contract has afforded him patience from FSU leadership, particularly considering he is only three seasons removed from an undefeated regular season and ACC Coach of the Year honors.
Still, the reality is simple: Norvell must produce better results in 2026.
The prevailing sentiment around the program is that FSU likely needs at least eight wins to solidify his standing entering 2027. The pressure could intensify quickly. FSU faces a daunting first-half schedule that includes home games against SMU and Virginia, along with road trips to Alabama, Miami and Louisville.
ESPN and other national outlets have suggested that a poor start could put Norvell’s future under the microscope and potentially spark discussions about a midseason coaching change.
For a program desperate to return to national relevance, the stakes could hardly be higher.
Florida State football fans speak out, offer season projections
To gauge the mood of the fan base, Democrat Sports Editor Jim Henry posed a simple question on Facebook: What is your prediction for FSU’s 2026 season?
More than 50 fans responded, offering a wide range of opinions on the Seminoles’ outlook. While seven wins seemed to be the best landing spot, here is a sampling of their projections.
Boyd Lattiffe: I’m thinking 7 wins. Hoping we are better on both sides of the line this season. Also, hoping we learn to punt it deep on 4th and short situations and play solid defense! Go Noles!
Andrew Wilcox; Lots of close wins and gray hairs. Time to leave the apathy in the rear view. 10 wins and a team to feel good about.
James Pennington: I am giving this team a positive outlook. The Asst coaches on the most part have another year under their belt, O-Line will be better and the new OC will be effective. We have good receivers!! Ernie Sims will have better oversight of our linebacker development as many are Seniors and 5th year. Have to win the first two games and utilize the first Bye Week effectively for Alabama game planning. Going on a limb, 9-3. Not listening to the Debbie-Downers!! Go Noles!!
Jamie Ward: I think that we’re gonna be better than some people believe… I’m looking for seven wins, including an upset win over SMU, Alabama, or even somehow can you imagine… Miami overlooking us
Jeff Johnson: 6-6, the AD is fired, which is a huge mistake, and Mike is retained for another year simply because FSU can’t pay his buyout
Mike Goldstein: I’m cautiously optimistic as we never know until the season starts how it will actually go, here’s to some pleasant surprises along the way and Go Noles!
Daniel Grant: 4. No chance he keeps his job. I think we lose to SMU and he is fired by November 1st and during the season. Outside of a couple guys this team is void of talent. I hope I’m wrong though and will be at every game rooting for them!
David C. Miles: With the new rules allowing paying the players quite frankly I don’t care! It is a crying shame! We got $15.00 a month for laundry money, books and tuition room and board ! Where do they get all this money? Some boosters got too much money!
David Lee Simmons: Record: 6-6, because Ashton Daniels seems too inconsistent, the offensive line is too big a question mark, and the defensive line pressure seems unproven to warrant any predictions for significant wins. As for Norvell, no, I don’t think he does enough to secure his job. I fear they will be 2-2 heading into the Virginia game. If they lose, then you’re looking at a 1-3 record and potentially three more losses (Louisville, Miami, Clemson). If FSU beats Virginia, then it might come down to HOW they lose to those three teams.
John Griffin: We should win at least 7 and good chance at 9. Anything over that depends on this team. I could see us going 10 and 2 without too much wishful thinking.
Dan Owens: 7
Lea Ann Myers: 7
Travis Huff: I don’t believe we can win more than 7 games. I hope I’m wrong. Go Noles!
G.A. Mays: 3
Here is FSU football’s 2026 schedule
vs. New Mexico State | Aug. 29
vs. SMU* | Sept. 7
at Alabama | Sept. 19
vs. Central Arkansas | Sept. 26
vs. Virginia* | Oct. 3
at Louisville* | Oct. 9
at Miami* | Oct. 17
vs. Clemson* | Oct. 31
at Boston College* | Nov. 7
at Pittsburgh* | Nov. 13
vs. NC State* | Nov. 21
vs. Florida, Nov. 27
Jim Henry is the award-winning sports editor of the Tallahassee Democrat and can be reached at jjhenry@tallahassee.com.
This article originally appeared on Tallahassee Democrat: Florida State football, coach Mike Norvell enter a make or break year
Reporting by Jim Henry, Tallahassee Democrat / Tallahassee Democrat
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
By Jim Henry, Tallahassee Democrat | USA TODAY Network
