Florida State football enters the 2026 season looking to continue to improve after technically taking a step forward last year, and one of college football’s most respected analysts believes the Seminoles have a legitimate chance to do just that. In a recent ESPN analysis highlighting college football programs poised to either break through or bounce back in 2026,
Bill Connelly included Florida State among 14 teams capable of making a significant leap this season. After improving from a 2-10 campaign in 2024 to a 5-7 finish in 2025, Connelly believes the Seminoles have the foundation in place to take another step forward under head coach Mike Norvell.
Connelly pointed to Florida State’s measurable improvement in his SP+ ratings as one of the biggest reasons for optimism. The Seminoles climbed from No. 83 nationally following the 2024 season to No. 41 in 2025, signaling progress despite missing a bowl game for a second straight year and still falling well short of their standard. The analytics suggest Florida State was far more competitive than its record indicated and could be positioned for another jump if several offseason additions live up to expectations.
Much of that optimism centers on the offense. Quarterback Ashton Daniels headlines a revamped unit that also features one of the ACC’s most intriguing skill-position groups, including veteran wide receiver Duce Robinson. However, Connelly noted that replacing the entire starting offensive line remains one of the Seminoles’ biggest question marks entering fall camp. If that group develops quickly, Florida State’s ceiling rises considerably.
While Connelly views the Seminoles as a potential breakout candidate, he also acknowledged the wide range of possible outcomes. He wrote that Florida State is one of the nation’s most difficult teams to project, suggesting a top-20 caliber surge is possible but cautioning that another losing season cannot be ruled out given the uncertainty surrounding the rebuilt roster.
The schedule won’t make the climb any easier. Florida State opens the season against New Mexico State before welcoming the SMU Mustangs to Tallahassee on Labor Day. Just two weeks later, the Seminoles travel to Tuscaloosa for a marquee nonconference showdown with the Alabama Crimson Tide before beginning the heart of an ACC slate that also includes Miami, Clemson, Louisville and Florida.
For Norvell, 2026 represents a pivotal season after consecutive losing campaigns. National expectations remain tempered, but Connelly’s latest analysis suggests Florida State has already shown enough improvement to warrant inclusion among the programs most likely to surprise the college football world this fall.
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This article originally appeared on FSU Wire: ESPN analyst sees a possible turnaround coming for Florida State
Reporting by Brandon Foster, FSU Wire / FSU Wire
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By Brandon Foster, FSU Wire | USA TODAY Network
