Tropical Storm Melissa is expected to rapidly intensify and become a Category 4 hurricane with 145-mph winds, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Nearly stationary Friday, Melissa is expected to bring “life-threatening and catastrophic flash flooding and landslides” to portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica through the weekend.
However, no local impacts are expected for Jacksonville or Northeast Florida through early next week.
Instead, the National Weather Service is calling for other local hazards and has issued an Elevated Fire Danger Advisory for Friday afternoon across inland Southeast Georgia, the Suwannee Valley, and portions of inland Northeast Florida.
Dry air and low humidity—with minimum values between 20 and 30 percent—could cause fires to ignite and spread quickly, especially in areas like the Suwannee River Valley and the Osceola National Forest.
Looking ahead, Jacksonville’s weekend forecast calls for mostly sunny skies on Saturday, increasing clouds by Saturday night, and a slight chance of showers by Sunday afternoon. Here’s other local hazards you should be aware of ahead of this weekend.
Drought Monitor in Northeast Florida & Southeast Georgia
Here’s what to know:
Coastal & Marine Hazards this Weekend Northeast Florida & Southeast Georgia
What will Jacksonville’s weather look like this weekend?
Today: Sunny and pleasant, with highs near 80. Light north winds shifting to the northeast at 6–11 mph, with occasional gusts up to 17 mph.
Tonight: Mostly clear and mild, with lows around 58. A gentle northeast breeze at 6–8 mph.
Saturday: Mostly sunny, highs around 80. Expect a steady northeast wind at 8–14 mph, gusting up to 20 mph.
Saturday Night: Clouds increasing, with a low near 64. East winds 8–11 mph, gusting to 16 mph.
Sunday: Partly sunny and warm, highs near 81. A 20% chance of showers after 2 p.m. Winds from the east at 8–14 mph, gusting to 20 mph.
Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms developing after 2 a.m. Low around 67.
➤ Track Tropical Storm Melissa
➤ Weather alerts via text: Sign up to get updates about current storms and weather events by location
Where is Tropical Storm Melissa headed?
Melissa “could end up being one of the strongest (storms) of the season,” according to AccuWeather.
“The exceptionally warm waters, reaching hundreds of feet deep, will act like jet fuel — providing extra energy for Melissa,” AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said.
“The warmest water in the Atlantic basin is in the central Caribbean, in the direct path of this storm. Rapid intensification into a Category 5 hurricane is not out of the question this weekend.”
Here’s what you should know.
Highlights on what Tropical Storm Melissa is doing now
Special note on the NHC cone: The forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time.
Tropical Storm Melissa: What you need to know
At 8 a.m., the center of Tropical Storm Melissa was located by Air Force reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 75.0 West.
Melissa is drifting toward the east-southeast near 1 mph. A slow drift toward the northeast and north is expected to begin later today and tonight. A westward drift is then forecast to begin on Saturday and continue through Monday.
On the forecast track, the center of Melissa is expected to move near or just south of Jamaica early next week.
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph, with higher gusts. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles from the center.
Gradual strengthening is forecast over the next day or so, followed by rapid intensification this weekend.
Melissa is forecast to become a hurricane by Saturday and a major hurricane by Sunday.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb.
What is rapid intensification?
Rapid intensification occurs when wind speeds increase by at least 35 mph in 24 hours.
Spaghetti models for Tropical Storm Melissa
Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
➤ Track Tropical Storm Melissa
See map of hurricane/tropical storm watches, warnings issued for Florida
As of 5 a.m., Oct. 24, no watches or warnings associated with Tropical Storm Melissa have been issued for Florida or the U.S.
What tropical storm, hurricane warnings have been issued for Tropical Storm Melissa?
A hurricane watch means hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
A tropical storm warning means tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
How strong is Tropical Storm Melissa and where is it going?
Tropical Storm Melissa has maximum sustained winds of 45 mph.
Melissa is nearly stationary, but a slow drift toward the northeast and north is expected later today and tonight. A westward drift is then forecast to begin on Saturday and continue through Monday.
Will a Hurricane Melissa hit Florida?
It’s not thought at this time by forecasters that Melissa will hit Florida, but Florida residents should stay informed.
Most current models now show Melissa being picked up and being shoved to the northeast into the Atlantic.
“At this time, we expect Melissa to stay well east of Florida,” said AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva via email Oct. 23.
➤ WeatherTiger: Melissa a monster in the making with Florida dodging the bullet
“We do not anticipate any direct impacts or landfall in the state. However, we’re watching closely because if the storm shifts a little farther west, or if the trough that’s expected to steer it away from the coast is slower or farther west, that could allow Melissa to get a bit closer.”
While Melissa may be a monster in the making, it poses “little to no risk to Florida or the continental U.S.,” said Dr. Ryan Truchelut, chief meteorologist at WeatherTiger, who works with the USA TODAY Network.
“Odds of any outer bands of Melissa even minimally scraping southeast Florida on its way out (into the Atlantic) are around 5%.”
Forecasters encourage residents to monitor the tropics and to always be prepared.
Key messages from the National Hurricane Center: What you need to know about Tropical Storm Melissa
Current forecast: Where is Tropical Storm Melissa going and how strong could it get?
What impact could Tropical Storm Melissa have and what areas could be affected?
Stay informed. Get weather alerts via text
What’s next?
We will update our tropical weather coverage daily.
Download your local site’s app to ensure you’re always connected to the news. And look for our special subscription offers here.
This article originally appeared on Florida Times-Union: Elevated fire advisories in Jacksonville, Tropical Storm Melissa and weekend forecast
Reporting by Doris Alvarez Cea and Cheryl McCloud, Jacksonville Florida Times-Union / Florida Times-Union
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
