Northwest Florida Democrats are turning out at higher rates than past years ahead of Tuesday’s special election, unofficial voter turnout numbers show.
The biggest election on the ballot Tuesday is the special election between Republican Jimmy Patronis and Democrat Gay Valimont to replace former U.S. Rep Matt Gaetz in Congress.
The race is one of two special congressional elections in Florida on Tuesday. Democrats are hoping to flip both seats, which are typically considered solidly Republican.
Valimont has raised more than $6 million and forced Patronis to go on the defensive.
Turnout numbers from a week of early voting and mail-in votes show the enthusiasm is on the Democratic side with an uptick in the rate registered Democratic voters participating versus Republicans voters when compared to previous elections. However, Republicans still hold a strong advantage, and Valimont would need most of the non-party-affiliated voters to back her to win Tuesday night.
Santa Rosa and Okaloosa Republicans will also be selecting their next member of the Florida House of Representatives to fill the seat of former state Rep. Joel Rudman, who resigned from the seat for his failed bid for the GOP nomination against Patronis in the congressional race. Eight candidates are running in the April 1 primary, with Okaloosa County Commissioner Nathan Boyles and Jay Mayor Shon Owens emerging as front-runners in the race.
Turnout higher than usual among Democrats
Across the four counties that make up Florida’s 1st Congressional District, Republicans have a majority of the turnout figures with 52.18% of votes cast belonging to registered Republicans, as of Monday. Registered Democrats votes were at 33.79% of ballots cast. Non-party affiliated voters were at 12.36%, and minor-party voters were at 1.67%.
District-wide, turnout was at 14.29% with 83,269 ballots cast out of 582,728 registered voters.
Not every county’s elections office website has past turnout numbers by party, but in Escambia and Walton counties, the numbers show an increase in Democratic turnout compared to recent past elections.
In Escambia County, registered Democrats made up 40% of the ballots cast for Tuesday’s special election, while Republicans cast 45.81%. In Walton County, Republicans had 67.42% compared to Democrats 20.75%.
Compared to recent elections, those numbers show significant gains for Democratic turnout.
In the last two general elections, registered Democrats made up about 30% of the vote in Escambia County and about 13% of the vote in Walton County, while registered Republicans made up about 50% of the vote in Escambia County and 70% of the vote in Walton County.
More Republicans are expected on Election Day
Escambia County has seen the highest turnout rates among the four counties, with turnout running at 18.45%.
Escambia County Supervisor of Elections Robert Bender told the News Journal turnout could reach about 25%, which is what the county typically sees during a primary election.
Bender, who is a Republican, said turnout is higher than usual among Democrats.
“Even though we have almost 40,000 more registered Republicans than Democrats, in terms of turnout so far, (Democrats are) only about 2,300 or 2,400 behind,” Bender said.
Bender said typically Election Day sees more Republicans come out rather than early voting or vote-by-mail.
“You may see a shift tomorrow, but as of right now, I’d say it’s pretty close,” Bender said.
This article originally appeared on Pensacola News Journal: Democratic voter turnout is up for special election to replace Matt Gaetz
Reporting by Jim Little, Pensacola News Journal / Pensacola News Journal
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