The slow tropical season has suddenly picked up. A tropical wave east of Bermuda with a low chance for development on Aug. 11 ran into conditions favorable for development and became Tropical Storm Cristobal by 11 a.m. the next day.
Cristobal isn’t expected to hang around long and is forecast to dissipate over cooler waters in the Atlantic on Aug. 13.
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Farther south, a tropical wave “is likely” to become a tropical depression over the next day or two. It was designated as Invest 92L and was showing signs of organization Wednesday, the National Hurricane Center said.
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If maximum sustained winds reach 39 mph, Invest 92L could become Tropical Storm Dolly.
The National Weather Service is also tracking a tropical wave in the Atlantic west of Invest 92L, dubbed Invest 94L, with a low chance of development in the next couple of days. Environmental conditions are forecast to be generally conducive for some development, and a tropical depression could form late this week or this weekend while the wave moves westward or west- northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
While this season is expected to see below-normal activity due to the presence of a strong El Niño, forecasters have been warning that Florida residents should always be prepared.
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Here’s what you should know based on the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center as of 5 p.m., Aug. 12.
Invest 92L likely to become tropical depression in next day or two
Special note on the NHC cone: The forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm could travel outside the cone. In 2026, the Hurricane Center will experiment with a new cone to include 90% of forecast track possibilities instead of the previous 67% forecast error.
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An area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave is located about 950 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.
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Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development during the next couple of days, and a tropicaldepression will likely form while the system moves westward to west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic.
Spaghetti models for Invest 92L
Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The Hurricane Center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
Invest 94L likely to become tropical depression late this week
A tropical wave located a few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. It could become a tropical depression late this week or weekend, forecasters said.
Spaghetti models for Invest 94L
Latest Tropical Storm Cristobal update
Special note on the NHC cone: The forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm could travel outside the cone. In 2026, the Hurricane Center will experiment with a new cone to include 90% of forecast track possibilities instead of the previous 67% forecast error.
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At 5 p.m. EDT Aug. 12, the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was located near latitude 37.2 North, longitude 41.0 West
Cristobal is moving toward the east at 21 mph. A turn toward the east-northeast and a slower forward motion is expected tonight.
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph, with higher gusts.
Slow weakening is forecast, and Cristobal is forecast to dissipate on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles from the center.
Spaghetti models for Tropical Storm Cristobal
Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The Hurricane Center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
What is an invest?
Short for investigation, the National Hurricane Center uses the term invest for areas of low pressure it is monitoring for potential development into a tropical depression or storm.
Invests are not tropical depressions or tropical storms. They’re usually clusters of showers and thunderstorms, and just because they’ve been designated as an invest does not guarantee they’ll strengthen into a tropical storm or hurricane.
Invests run from 90 to 99, followed by a letter: L for the Atlantic basin and E for those in the eastern Pacific. After 99, it starts over again and the next invest would be 90.
Once something has been designated as an invest, specialized data sets and computer models can begin, including scheduling Hurricane Hunter aircraft missions and running spaghetti models.
Is there a hurricane coming toward Florida?
It’s too early to determine what, if any, impacts from any of the tropical waves in the Atlantic could be felt in Florida, the National Weather Service cautioned residents to monitor the tropics and to stay prepared.
“The storm would have to thread the needle in order to reach the Southeast coast of the United States sometime late next week,” according to AccuWeather.
“The storm would have to stay organized and strong enough to survive extensive wind shear over the Caribbean. But if it gets too strong before reaching U.S mainland waters, it will turn north and track well east of the East Coast.”
Tropical Storm Cristobal is not expected to impact the U.S. or Florida, according to AccuWeather.
Could tropical waves impact Florida?
There is a high risk of tropical development in the open Atlantic Aug. 12-15, according to Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather lead hurricane expert via email Aug. 10.
“Right now, this area is in a mostly favorable environment for development. Wind shear near this tropical wave is light, however some dry air will prevent any rapid organization.
“This wave has a high chance to develop into a tropical depression or storm during the middle or latter portions of this week.
“As the tropical wave approaches the northern Lesser Antilles late this weekend into early next week, it will begin to encounter more wind shear which should help to limit strengthening. It is also possible that the wave will completely get ripped apart by the shear near the islands.
“The stronger the wave becomes, the more likely it is to move north and away from the Lesser Antilles. If this happens, the storm would likely move north into the open Atlantic and not impact the U.S.
“If the wave stays weaker, there is the chance it could move a little closer to the Southeast coast, however it would have to get through a wall of wind shear which would likely substantially disrupt the storm. If this would approach the U.S. it wouldn’t be until mid to late next week, so we have plenty of time to watch it.”
The tropical wave east of Bermuda
National Hurricane Center tracking 3 disturbances in Atlantic basin
Besides Tropical Storm Cristobal and Invest 92L, the National Hurricane Center is also tracking an area of low pressure in the eastern Atlantic:
Eastern Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave just offshore of the coast of west Africa is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be generally conducive for some development of this system during the next several days while it moves westward or west-northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
When is hurricane season in Florida?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said.
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The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America, as the Gulf of Mexico is now known in the U.S. per an order from President Trump. NOAA and the National Hurricane Center are now using Gulf of America on its maps and in its advisories.
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What is a disturbance?
The National Hurricane Center’s tropical outlook map highlights “disturbances” in the Atlantic basin.
These are clusters of storms with some organization, but which don’t have a defined circulation typical of tropical cyclones.
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If shown on the tropical outlook map in orange or red, forecasters are predicting the potential of those disturbances into developing as medium or high, respectively.
Disturbances shown on the map with a gray x have little to no chance for development. This is a change from prior years which indicated such disturbances in yellow.
What is a tropical wave?
“Tropical waves are clusters of showers and thunderstorms that act as the seedlings for many tropical storms throughout the Atlantic season,” said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather lead hurricane expert, via email.
“There are about 60 tropical waves that move across the Atlantic each year, and roughly 10 percent to 15 percent of them develop into a tropical system. That’s about one in seven.
“Tropical waves are important because they contribute to about 80 percent of all major hurricanes.”
What do the colored, hatched areas on the NHC map mean?
The hatched areas on the National Hurricane Center’s tropical outlook map indicate “areas where a tropical cyclone — which could be a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane — could develop,” said National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Jamie Rhome.
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The colors make it visibly clear how likely a system could develop, with orange medium and red high. In 2026, the tropical outlook will use a gray X to indicate disturbances with a low chance for development.
The National Hurricane Center generally doesn’t issue tropical advisories until there is a named storm, but there is an exception.
“If a system is near land and there is potential for development, the National Hurricane Center won’t wait before it issues advisories, even if the system hasn’t become an actual storm. This gives residents time to prepare,” Rhome said.
How many tropical storms, hurricanes are in a typical season?
The 30-year average, from 1991 to 2020, is for 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
Florida weather radar for Aug. 12, 2026
Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida
When is the peak of hurricane season?
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
What are names for 2026 Atlantic hurricane season?
Here are the names for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season and how to pronounce them:
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What’s next?
We will continue to update our tropical weather coverage to bring you the most current information you need to protect your home and family.
This story has been updated with new information.
Cheryl McCloud is a journalist for the USA TODAY Network-Florida’s service journalism Connect team. You can get all of Florida’s best content directly in your inbox each weekday day by signing up for the free newsletter, Florida TODAY, at https://tcpalm.com/newsletters.
This article originally appeared on Treasure Coast Newspapers: NHC watching Tropical Storm Cristobel, 2 possible tropical depressions
Reporting by Cheryl McCloud, C. A. Bridges and Ashley Ferrer, USA TODAY NETWORK – Florida / Treasure Coast Newspapers
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By Cheryl McCloud, C. A. Bridges and Ashley Ferrer, USA TODAY NETWORK – Florida | USA TODAY Network
