Ventura County counts more Democrats than Republicans, but Steve Hilton, the leading Republican candidate for governor, punched above his weight here in the June 2 primary election.
Hilton finished first statewide in early returns, though his 2.4-point lead over Democrat Xavier Becerra could narrow or disappear as more votes are counted. Regardless of who finishes first, Hilton and Becerra appear to be the two winners of the primary and headed to the general election in November.
In Ventura County, Hilton’s lead was wider: He had 32% of the vote to Becerra’s 26.3%.
Other than Hilton, the major candidates all did about as well in Ventura County as they did in the state as a whole. Democrat Tom Steyer finished third in the county, and statewide with 19.4% of Ventura County’s vote. Republican Chad Bianco was fourth in Ventura County with 9.8%.
Bianco and Hilton were the only prominent Republicans in the race, while the Democratic vote was split among more candidates. Counting only candidates who got more than 1% of the vote, the Democrats’ five top candidates for governor won 54% of the vote in Ventura County, compared with 41.8% for the two Republicans. Statewide, Democrats did a little better, with the party’s top candidates winning 55% of the vote.
Herb Gooch, a professor emeritus of political science at California Lutheran University in Thousand Oaks, said he was struck by how well Hilton performed in Ventura County, where the electorate is 43% Democrat and just 29% Republican.
The details of how candidates performed in specific cities and precincts aren’t available yet, but Gooch said he thinks it’s likely Hilton did very well in Simi Valley, the most Republican part of Ventura County. Simi Valley has trended rightward in recent elections, he said, and voters there could be motivated to vote Republican by last year’s ballot measure that redrew California’s congressional districts to be friendlier to Democrats.
Hilton is a British American conservative political commentator and onetime aide to former British Prime Minister David Cameron, and he proved far more popular than Bianco, the elected sheriff of Riverside County. President Donald Trump’s endorsement of Hilton in April may have been decisive, but even before that, Hilton was near the top of most polls.
Gooch likened Hilton’s appeal as a media figure with that of Spencer Pratt, the reality television personality who appears headed for a runoff with Karen Bass in the Los Angeles mayor’s race. Both candidates are used to talking on radio or television, and that’s a useful skill in a campaign.
“Media persona trumps everything, especially when there’s a sense that people are voting with their gut and there’s a lot of dissatisfaction, which there is right now,” Gooch said.
Robin Slaught, a 61-year-old Republican in Ventura, said she and her husband are both very dissatisfied with Gov. Gavin Newsom and didn’t want another Democrat running the state.
“We’re extremely frustrated with the way Gavin Newsom has handled the state,” she said shortly after dropping off her ballot at a polling place in Ventura. “We’ve been following Steve Hilton for a while now, and we think he did well in the debates.”
Gooch said Hilton seems to have benefited from “a lot of last-minute anger,” as evidenced by his strong performance with people who voted in person on Election Day. Hilton got a higher percentage of his Ventura County votes in person than any other candidate in any political party.
Craig Harvey, a 32-year-old farmer in Santa Paula and a registered Republican, voted for Bianco but said he would be happy to support Hilton in the general election.
“I went back and forth, but Chad Bianco is one of the biggest sheriffs in California so he has real experience running something with thousands of people working for him,” Harvey said.
On the Democratic side, Becerra, a former Biden cabinet member, California attorney general and U.S. House representative, easily defeated Tom Steyer, a billionaire investor who funded his own campaign.
Becerra surged late in the campaign after he won the support of most prominent Democratic politicians and organizations. Gooch said he suspects a lot of Becerra voters cast their ballots strategically, voting for Becerra because he appeared to give Democrats the best chance at retaining the governorship and avoiding a general election runoff with two Republican candidates.
John McBride, a 61-year-old Ventura resident who is registered as no party preference, said his vote for Becerra was “mainly strategic.”
“There were a number of candidates I was going back and forth with, but the late polling shows that Becerra actually has a chance of getting on the ballot with one of the Republicans, and I wanted to have a Republican and a Democrat on the ballot so I decided to vote for Becerra for that reason,” he said.
Steyer’s outsider status appealed to Vicki Kirby, 71, who voted for Steyer even though she’s a registered Republican.
“I think he is going to be more proactive with things people care about, for immigration issues and homelessness,” the Ventura resident said. “He’s speaking about the things that I care about.”
Heading into the November general election, Becerra is an obvious favorite, because Democrats outnumber Republicans in California by 45% to 25%. All Becerra has to do is win over the people who voted for Steyer or another Democrat, and he can win.
But Gooch said he doesn’t think it will be that easy. Hilton can draw on strong anti-incumbent feelings, the same ones that are hurting Trump’s popularity on a national level.
“I would not put my money against Becerra at this point, but I think there’s going to be more of a race than some people think,” he said.
Tony Biasotti is an investigative and watchdog reporter for the Ventura County Star. Reach him at tbiasotti@vcstar.com. This story was made possible by a grant from the Ventura County Community Foundation’s Fund to Support Local Journalism.
This article originally appeared on Ventura County Star: Ventura County election takeaways. Surprising result in governor race
Reporting by Tony Biasotti, Ventura County Star / Ventura County Star
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By Tony Biasotti, Ventura County Star | USA TODAY Network
