A recent forecast warned that “most” wildfire activity in California is expected later in the year as the state continues its recovery from the devastating Los Angeles County fires in January.
AccuWeather released its wildfire forecast for the United States late April, saying that while fires are “possible” throughout the state this summer, it’s later in the year that Californians can expect more of the activity. A large swath of central and Northern California is forecasted to see the highest wildfire risks in the state come fall, or September through November, while the remainder of the state sees an elevated fire risk.
“There was plenty of rain and snow across Northern California this winter,” said Paul Pastelok, AccuWeather’s lead long-range expert. “All of that moisture has supported a lot of lush vegetation growth this spring. That grass and brush will dry out and become potential fuel for wildfires this fall.”
AccuWeather predicted that California could see up to 1.5 million acres burned this year, up by about half a million acres from last year and the historical average from 2001 to 2020. More than 61,000 acres have already been burned in the state this year, according to figures updated on May 5, according to Cal Fire, which is about 12 times more than the five-year average for the same period.
AccuWeather’s forecast came about a week before the National Interagency Fire Center’s latest monthly wildfire potential outlook for the United States.
While the outlook for California hasn’t majorly changed since its April issuance, more land is now forecasted to have a higher than normal likelihood of significant wildfires in June. The National Interagency Fire Center also released its outlook for August. It forecasts higher-than-normal significant wildfire potential for large swaths along California’s coast, more central reaches of the state and northern California along the Nevada and Oregon borders.
As we kick off Wildfire Awareness Month this May, we encourage everyone to take a look at the National Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlooks from Predictive Services for May-August 2025.
Read the full outlook here: https://t.co/81gZvf5jCl
Be wildfire aware! pic.twitter.com/G5VabZMzcY
What is the forecast for California wildfires in summer 2025, according to AccuWeather?
Based on AccuWeather’s graphics, all of California has some level of fire risk for June through August, with the elevated fire risks anticipated for a portion of Southern California along Nevada and Arizona’s borders, and far north, including along the Oregon border.
A strong marine layer over California’s coast is expected to help reduce the risk of fires for most of the summer, according to Pastelok.
By mid-summer, California’s interior agriculture regions will start drying out, and the state may see “some spotty fires.” Mid-to-late summer is when Northern California is forecasted to experience some fires as well, he said.
It’s too far out to tell how the Santa Ana wind season, typically from October through January, will play out in Southern California and contribute to the region’s wildfire season, Pastelok said. These winds helped fuel the fatal Palisades and Eaton wildfires earlier this year, during which Gov. Gavin Newsom said the state’s wildfire season is year-round.
Paris Barraza is a trending reporter covering California news at The Desert Sun. Reach her at pbarraza@gannett.com.
This article originally appeared on Palm Springs Desert Sun: Forecast shows where in California is at a greater risk of wildfires later this year
Reporting by Paris Barraza, Palm Springs Desert Sun / Palm Springs Desert Sun
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