Ohio State, Indiana, and Oregon are viewed by most experts as the top three football teams in the Big Ten for 2026. USC was voted fourth in the Big Ten preseason media poll. One ESPN college football expert thinks another team might bump USC out of the College Football Playoff picture.

Rece Davis thinks Penn State has a very realistic shot at the playoff this year. The ESPN College GameDay host likes the mature, veteran composition of the roster with players Matt Campbell knows and trusts from Iowa State. More than that, however, Davis thinks the Big Ten schedule is really kind to the Nittany Lions this year… and it is.

Penn State, Davis points out, doesn’t play Ohio State, Indiana or Oregon. USC and Michigan are the toughest games on the Nittany Lions’ Big Ten slate. The team might not be as good as USC, but the Nittany Lions have a far more favorable schedule than the Trojans, who have to play all three of the Big Ten’s projected top teams.

All of this dramatically increases the importance of that USC-Penn State game for both sides. A Penn State win gives the Nittany Lions a realistic path to a 10-2 record. A USC win keeps the Trojans alive in the pursuit of a 10-2 record. The more you look at USC’s 2026 Big Ten schedule, the more you realize the Penn State game is a total must-win. USC doesn’t just need to get to 10-2, but it also needs to make sure Penn State isn’t a viable competitor for what could be a fourth CFP spot from the Big Ten. It’s increasingly hard to see USC making the playoff without a win in Happy Valley.

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This article originally appeared on Trojans Wire: ESPN’s Rece Davis makes accurate point about USC competitor’s slate

Reporting by Matt Zemek, Trojans Wire / Trojans Wire

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By Matt Zemek, Trojans Wire | USA TODAY Network