Detroit — Tarik Skubal is hurt, and the pain touches every corner of the Tigers organization, in the present and the future. It’s devastating in a variety of ways, for the team and the fans, and mostly for Skubal.
The Tigers announced Monday their two-time Cy Young winner would undergo surgery to remove loose fragments in his left elbow, after he experienced occasional discomfort throughout the season. He was scheduled to start Monday night against the Red Sox at Comerica Park, and instead sat on a dais beforehand and explained the brutal news.
He’ll undergo what’s described as a relatively simple arthroscopic surgery with estimated recovery times varying from two to three months. No one can say with certainty, but it’s not a catastrophic injury, yet could have monumental repercussions.
Skubal, 29, was expected to become the most expensive free-agent starting pitcher in history after the season, with agent Scott Boras reportedly seeking a long-term contract approaching $400 million. That figure may be inflated by agents and industry insiders, but it sufficiently dampened the Tigers’ motivation to get a deal done, and instead Skubal went to arbitration and won a record one-year, $32 million salary.
It’s unfair to guess what happens with negotiations after Skubal returns, and how potential suitors might react. But there’s little doubt his injury history will be a factor. Many observers — including me — thought it was best for the Tigers not to tie themselves to a monstrous commitment, but instead push hard in one more season with Skubal. That’s what they did, spending heavily elsewhere, adding free-agent pitchers Framber Valdez, Justin Verlander and Kenley Jansen, lifting their payroll to a franchise-record $230 million.
The Tigers’ approach with Skubal was more prudent than popular, and injury had to be one of the concerns. Scott Harris, president of baseball operations, has declined to talk about offers made (or not made), but the cautious plan was clear. There’s also the uncertainty of baseball’s financial structure after the labor agreement expires in December, with owners intent on reining in costs.
Unfortunately with Skubal sidelined, we’re about to see both sides of the Tigers’ difficult decision — how judicious it was financially, but also how vital Skubal is to their championship chances. The truth is, it was a high-stakes gamble either way, for either side.
Hopefully, he’ll return as strong as ever and jump back into his ace role in time for a playoff push. Realistically, a third arm surgery — although not nearly as serious as his first two — will reshape the narrative and present a huge competitive obstacle. In the past two seasons, the Tigers are 21-10 in games started by Skubal.
The Tigers already have been battered by injuries, with 14 players on the injured list, including prospective starting pitchers Casey Mize, Verlander, Reese Olson, Jackson Jobe and Troy Melton. And now the best pitcher in baseball joins them, short-circuiting — at least for now — what was expected to be one of the dominant rotations in the majors.
The Tigers (18-18) have hovered around .500 and still could win the American League Central, arguably the weakest division in baseball. I mean, it can’t be any more difficult than their last two playoff runs, both times clawing their way in at the end.
Skubal and AJ Hinch tried to offer positive outlooks before Monday night’s game — won by the Red Sox 5-4 in rainy conditions — but it’s impossible to disguise the uncertainty.
“It sucks,” Skubal told reporters. “What I pride myself on is taking the ball every fifth day and giving our team a chance to win. Not being able to do that for whatever the timeline is — I don’t have one and I don’t think it’s fair to guess and create one now — but it sucks. … We want to get the surgery as soon as possible so I can be back as soon as possible.”
By most estimations, it’s not season-ending or even necessarily career-altering. While dealing with mild symptoms, Skubal still has thrown 43.1 innings this season with a 3-2 record and a 2.70 ERA. He has struck out 45 and walked only six, continuing his four-year run of dominance. His fastball was touching 100 mph, right up until he finished the seventh inning in his last start in Atlanta.
Skubal’s historic brilliance requires maximum physical stress, and does come with a cost. According to ESPN, Skubal has thrown 3,211 pitches above 95 mph since the start of the 2024 season, 234 more than anyone else in the majors.
Hinch is masterful at handling chaos (pitching or otherwise), and refuses to lament adversity. The Tigers have faced plenty, and this might be the most distressing, and depressing for fans.
“The route is a little more bumpy now and we’re going to have to adapt,” Hinch said. “But there is light at the end of the tunnel to look forward to. I know what Tarik is going to bring back to this team. … It’s a test, you can’t deny it’s a big blow. But they aren’t going to cancel the season. We’ve got to go play.”
Skubal doesn’t have to alter his career path either, although he’ll have to show he can return to full form. A lot is unknown, but at least two certainties have emerged. No. 1, Skubal won’t win a third straight A.L. Cy Young after missing so much time. And No. 2, he won’t be a possible blue chip at the trade deadline, if the Tigers were to fall out of contention and wanted to deal him.
On the optimistic side, Skubal could be one fixed-up, gassed-up superstar when he returns, perhaps in August or September.
“If there’s something positive to be taken from it, I’m going to come back and be the same guy,” Skubal said. “I’ve had two arm surgeries before and I think I came back pretty well from those. I’m just going to trust the work that I’ll put in and trust the training staff.”
Trust will be needed more than ever. It’s a long season, and this doesn’t have to be the end of anything for Skubal and the Tigers. That’s how they’re approaching it, the only way they can.
Bob.wojnowski@detroitnews.com
@bobwojnowski
This article originally appeared on The Detroit News: Wojo: Tarik Skubal injury brutal blow for Tigers, and a twist in high-stakes gamble
Reporting by Bob Wojnowski, The Detroit News / The Detroit News
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