Going into the state girls basketball tournament that opens up this week, the biggest question surrounding the road to the state’s final four is obvious.
How vulnerable is Belleville?
Belleville is the Division 1 defending champion after losing just once last year, is 21-1 this year and has won 20 games by double digits.
But following a 59-51 loss to Howell in the Kensington Lakes Activities Association championship game on Thursday that snapped a 35-game winning streak, and a close 56-54 win over Wayne Memorial on Feb. 10, maybe Belleville repeating as champion in Division 1 isn’t the foregone conclusion it’s appeared to be all season.
Wayne Memorial head coach Jarvis Mitchell said after losing to Belleville, 77-49, in January, his team was able to find some success in the rematch.
“Just a lot more attention to detail,” said Mitchell, whose team has been ranked No. 2 for most of the year and has just two losses this season, both against Belleville. “We tried to do some things that were different, of course. We knew the first game that we did all the wrong things. With basketball, when a team does all the right things and a team that does all the wrong things in a game, you have that recipe for disaster. This time around, we were a little more attentive to detail.”
Howell also was able to do a lot of right things against Belleville in showing it can be a title contender. Howell features McDonald’s All-American and Michigan State signee Lilly Williams, and it’s likely the teams will meet again in a regional semifinal in a couple of weeks.
Despite the loss, Belleville still enters as the favorite to repeat.
Belleville’s roster has ability everywhere, but it’s a blend of old and young talent.
Senior guard and Marquette signee Se’Crette Carter is a sharpshooter and playmaker on the wing who is a Miss Basketball finalist, while junior Sydney Savoury was the leading scorer as a sophomore on last year’s championship team who is being recruited by just about every big-time women’s college basketball program in the country.
Jaida Quinn and Christine Chinemelu are two more important senior leaders.
Belleville isn’t without some promising underclassmen, either, most notably one of the state’s top sophomores in point guard Paisley Stephens. Sophomores Jai’da Whitfield and Ava Clyburn are on their second year on varsity, and freshmen Mo’Riyah Mckinney and Janiah Batchelor are talented players getting their feet wet on varsity this year.
Belleville head coach Jason Wilkins said he is happy with how his team has so far handled all the sky-high expectations being the title favorite.
“They’ve handled it very well,” Wilkins said. “We play a couple of seniors, but we’re young with some underclassmen. I think they’ve handled it very well.”
If Belleville gets past the district round and the likely rematch with Howell in regionals, the next biggest challenge likely would come in the semifinals, where a third meeting this year with rival Wayne Memorial or a matchup with Detroit Renaissance could occur.
Wayne Memorial is led by four-year point guard Mariah Cross (Temple signee) and one of the state’s top post players, Kaylee King.
As is the case with the boys this year, the region of the state with the best depth is actually the west side with Rockford, Muskegon and Grand Haven being in the top 10 all year.
There are also two powerful teams further to the central and northern parts of the state in Midland and Saginaw Heritage.
But also as is the case with the boys, all those teams will be spending the district, regional and quarterfinal rounds eliminating one another, so there will only be one for any east-side team to worry about at the final four.
That process of elimination will start right away this week, given Rockford and Muskegon are paired in the same district and likely are headed for a district final showdown consisting of teams with a combined four losses on the season.
The winner will then advance to a regional that likely will feature Midland and Heritage. The winner of that regional than has a good chance of running into Grand Haven in the quarterfinals.
Here’s an overview of the state girls basketball tournament, starting with Division 1 and then proceeding to the rest of the three Divisions. Records listed are after games on Thursday.
Division 1
Defending champion: Belleville.
Favorite: Belleville.
Contender: Wayne Memorial.
Darkhorse: Rockford.
Toughest district: At Muskegon Mona Shores, where Rockford and Muskegon lead an overall loaded pairing with no teams below .500 on the season. Greenville and Cedar Springs each have won 16 games, while host Mona Shores and Reeths-Puffer are each over .500.
Final four: Belleville over Wayne Memorial, Rockford over Orchard Lake St. Mary’s.
Championship game: Belleville over Rockford.
Player to watch: Lilly Williams, Howell. This will be the first and only high school state tournament experience for 6-foot-6 Williams, the McDonald’s All-American and Michigan State signee who led the homeschool program she played for to a pair of national titles before deciding to play for Howell this year. She could be some kryptonite to Belleville in regionals, just as she was in the KLAA championship game.
Division 2
While no Division 1 team enters the tournament unbeaten, there are three such squads in Division 2, all of which are ranked in the top 10: Grand Rapids South Christian, Goodrich and Grand Rapids Covenant Christian.
Of those three, Goodrich has the best path to the final four on paper.
If each advance, South Christian and Covenant Christian eventually would meet up in the quarterfinal round.
But Covenant Christian might have to contend with last year’s runner-up, Grand Rapids West Catholic, in the regional round.
South Christian has gone unblemished and earned the No. 1 ranking behind a pair of seniors who have each eclipsed 1,000 career points in guards Sophia Prins and Lizzie Wolthuis. Both are four-year varsity players.
South Christian finished off the regular season with a two-point win over Rockford on Thursday.
Barring upsets in the district round, the best regional is shaping up to be region 13 at Tecumseh, which is the defending state champion in Division 2 and has enjoyed another strong season.
That regional could feature three ranked teams in Tecumseh, Haslett, and Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard, which features Western Michigan signees Ava and Vanessa Rodriguez.
Some good teams from the Upper Peninsula also could have a say in who gets to the final four.
Negaunee has just one loss, while Gladstone is 18-3 coming into the tournament. Those squads will be paired in the same district with 15-6 Houghton and 14-5 Kingsford.
One team to watch closer to the middle of the state is Flint Powers, which has Miss Basketball finalist Kendyl Smith.
Defending champion: Tecumseh.
Favorite: Grand Rapids South Christian.
Contender: Tecumseh.
Darkhorse: Goodrich.
Toughest district: District No. 45 at Grand Rapids South Christian will have more than just the unbeaten hosts. Wayland (13-7), Holland Christian (14-7) and Hudsonville Unity Christian (13-9) hope to not simply be pushovers for South Christian on the way to the regional round.
Final four: South Christian over Goodrich, Tecumseh over Flint Powers.
Championship game: South Christian over Tecumseh.
Player to watch: Kendyl Smith, Flint Powers. Smith is the only Division 2 player who is a Miss Basketball finalist, and for good reason. Headed to play in college for Liberty, the 5-9 point guard earlier this month became the school’s all-time leading scorer and reached 500 career assists. Those are no small feats at a school such as Powers, which has a rich history consisting of four state championships. However, Powers hasn’t won a title since 2001, which is even more motivation for Smith to be better than ever during the tournament.
Division 3
Once again, the title could come down to Niles Brandywine trying to beat a team coached by Scott Stine.
Two years ago, Brandywine lost in the state championship game to Ypsilanti Arbor Prep, coached by Stine.
The same thing happened last year in the semifinals, when Arbor Prep outlasted Brandywine by two points on a pair of free throws by Angela Meggisson with two seconds remaining in the game. Arbor Prep handed Brandywine its only loss of the season and went on to win its third title in four years under Stine.
This year though, Stine is coaching at Jackson Lumen Christi, which is as hot as team in the state entering the tournament, regardless of division.
Lumen Christi has won 10 of 11, with that only loss being a five-point defeat to Rockford in a game more designed to be a playoff tuneup for each than anything.
Lumen Christi won the Catholic League title by beating Orchard Lake St. Mary’s, which has been ranked most of the year in the Division 1 state poll, by double digits.
The best player on Lumen Christi is sophomore sensation Kenna Hunt, a point guard who is just as acclaimed of a recruit in the 2028 class as Belleville’s Sydney Savoury is in the 2027 class.
Brandywine has been really good also, taking a 20-1 record into the tournament, with its only loss being to Division 2 ranked Otsego as it looks to finally claim the state title trophy.
Brandywine has reloaded nicely this year after losing seven seniors and three all-state players off of its team from last year.
Sydney Olson, Karleigh Byrd, Lily Price and MacKenna Price are returning regulars who have been veteran rocks, while Zaya Price has been an impact freshman for Brandywine.
Should any one of those two slip, there are other contenders who could take advantage.
McBain is unbeaten and tied with Brandywine atop the state rankings, No. 5 Grass Lake (20-1) will be in the same district as Lumen Christi, No. 4 Blissfield could give Lumen Christi problems in the regional round, and No. 6 Pewamo-Westphalia has put together another terrific regular season as well.
Defending champion: Ypsilanti Arbor Prep.
Favorite: Jackson Lumen Christi.
Contender: Niles Brandywine.
Darkhorse: Pewamo-Westphalia.
Toughest district: At Ovid-Elsie, which has 20-2 Pewamo-Westphalia, 20-2 Hemlock, 15-6 Ovid-Elsie and 12-10 Ithaca competing. Lumen Christi and Grass Lake being in the same district — as well as a 16-5 Hanover-Horton team — makes the pairing at Napoleon a powerful one as well.
Final four: Lumen Christi over Niles Brandywine, Pewamo-Westphalia over McBain.
Championship game: Lumen Christi over Pewamo-Westphalia.
Player to watch: Kenna Hunt, Lumen Christi. A dynamic sophomore led her team to a state title last year when Savoury propelled Belleville to the Division 1 crown, and the same could be true again this year in Division 3 with Hunt in the fold. A dynamic playmaker and point guard, Hunt can beat all sorts of defenses thrown her way and a deep tournament run should be the springboard to an attention-garnering summer from college coaches.
Division 4
The most noteworthy change to the Division 4 tournament this year is that Ishpeming out of the Upper Peninsula is back in this classification after being in Division 3 last year.
That’s significant, because two years ago Ishpeming easily rolled to the state title in Division 4 with a team so stacked it could have gotten to the final four in Division 2 or 3.
This year’s Ishpeming squad isn’t quite that good, but it’s still bad news for other Division 4 programs that Ishpeming is back in this classification.
Ishpeming is led by two seniors who started as sophomores on the title-winning team two years ago, Janessa Eagle (Michigan Tech signee) and Mya Hemmer (Baylor volleyball signee).
The only losses for Ishpeming during the regular season came to Division 2 foes Gladstone and Negaunee, two teams that Ishpeming also beat as well.
Look for Ishpeming to have a regional battle in the U.P. with Ewen-Trout Creek, last year’s runner-up who didn’t graduate one player from that roster.
Another big development in Division 4 is that defending champion Fowler, who has won three state tiles since 2021 and has been to the final four for five straight years, didn’t have the regular season it is accustomed to (9-13).
Still, don’t count out that program which knows how to win in the state tournament.
Two teams teams to look out for that had great regular seasons are 19-1 Concord, which lost to Ewen-Trout Creek in the semifinals last year and is No. 2 in the state poll, and top-ranked Morenci (21-1).
Defending champion: Fowler.
Favorite: Ishpeming.
Contender: Concord.
Darkhorse: Morenci.
Toughest district: At Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary, which features four teams with at least 14 wins in St. Charles, Lutheran Seminary, Bay City All Saints and Merrill.
Final four: Ishpeming over Morenci, Concord over Mio.
Championship game: Ishpeming over Concord.
Player to watch: Mia McGregor, Mio. Just how prolific of a scorer has McGregor been during her high school career? This year, she eclipsed 2,000 career points, and she still has a year left because she’s only a junior. Averaging over 40 points a game, McGregor had a 61-point game earlier in the year and has won Division 4 Player of the Year two years in a row. She is a threat to break the state’s single-season scoring record of 935 points set by Jasmine Hines of Central Lake in 2010. If any player can single-handedly lead her team to a deep run, it’s McGregor.
Keith Dunlap is a freelance writer.
This article originally appeared on The Detroit News: Girls basketball state tournament: Contenders, darkhorses, predictions
Reporting by Keith Dunlap, Special to The Detroit News / The Detroit News
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
