On Monday, Feb. 2, millions of Americans will brave the early morning cold as groundhog handlers pull their sleepy charges from their winter dens to offer a spring forecast.
It’s probably fair to ask why we delegate weather forecasting to a species that likes to dig up our yards, whistle loudly and sleep all winter, but we do.
Groundhog reliability is a haphazard thing, in 2025 Groundhog-day.com tracked 78 groundhogs, woodchucks, marmots and groundhog-adjacent critters and found a nearly even split on their forecast. Forty-three predicted an early spring and 35 said more winter ahead — hardly an overwhelming consensus.
NOAA in 2025 ranked 19 groundhogs across the U.S. that have been a predicting weather with their shadow for the past 20 years. Among those ranked, Woody the Woodchuck, a Howell, Michigan, denizen, and Punxsutawney Phil, famously of Gobbler’s Knob, Pennsylvania, and Bill Murray movies, were near the bottom of the reliability list, the agency said.
NOAA compared 2005 to 2024 March temperature averages in the U.S. as a way of creating its “spring” accuracy rankings. Phil didn’t do any better last year.
“In 2025, Phil forecast ‘more winter’ at Gobbler’s Knob when he saw his shadow and predicted six weeks of winter temperatures. In fact, the contiguous U.S. saw near-average temperatures in February and much-above-average temperatures in March of last year. Phil’s forecast was incorrect,” NOAA said.
Woody, however, predicted an early spring, which Michiganders are likely rooting for right now in 2026.
A 2021 research article in Weather, Climate and Society also cast aspersions on the forecasting abilities of rodents, finding that groundhog forecasts of an early spring were “no better than chance.”
“Of 530 unique groundhog-year predictions across 33 different locations, spring onset was correctly predicted by groundhogs exactly 50% of the time,” the article abstract notes. “The two most widely recognized and long-tenured groundhogs in their respective countries — Wiarton Willie (Canada) and Punxsutawney Phil (United States) — had success rates of 54% and 52%, respectively, despite over 150 collective guesses.”
Here’s what to know about Woodchuck weather forecasts.
Which are the most reliable groundhogs?
Staten Island Chuck, referred to as Charles G. Hogg, was the top-ranked forecaster through 2024, according to NOAA, with an 85% accuracy rate. Charles lives in New York City Staten Island Zoo and apparently is too busy with fans to discuss weather forecasting in detail.
Georgia’s General Beauregard Lee was second-most reliable, with an 80% accuracy rate through 2024. General Lee lives in Weathering Heights at Dauset Trails Nature Center.
A bronze statue of a prairie dog, nicknamed Lander Lil in Wyoming, took third, with a 75% accuracy rate. The statue was modeled after a real prairie dog. Lil was mum on how she reaches her weather forecast predictions.
What did Woody the Woodchuck predict in 2025?
In 2025, Woody the Woodchuck forecast an early spring, which NOAA says much of the nation actually enjoyed.
How accurate are groundhogs?
NOAA’s 2025 ranking, in order from best to worst accuracy rate:
Which groundhogs have been predicting the longest?
Punxsuwtawney Phil leads the pack by a wide margin. The groundhog and its successors have been at it 130 years — this will be the 131st weather prediction.
“Punxsutawney Phil is a superstar prognosticating groundhog from Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania,” Groundhog-Day.com says. “He makes his predictions from his burrow on Gobler’s Knob. According to legend, Phil has made weather prognostications since 1886, owing his improbably long life to the miraculous ‘groundhog nog’ administered at the annual Groundhog Picnic.”
Octortaro Orphie, a stuffed groundhog, of Quarryville, Pennsylvania, is second with 93 forecasts heading into this week. Being taxidermied no doubt has helped with his longevity.
A Canadian, Wiarton Willie, of Ontario, is prepping for his 63rd prediction.
Jimmy the Groundhog, of Sun Prairie, Wisconsin, has made 57 forecasts heading into Monday.
What are the most unusual groundhogs predicting the weather?
Here’s a look at some of the most unusual groundhog-adjacent critters and characters taking on the weather forecasting work.
This article originally appeared on Lansing State Journal: Are woodchucks good weather forecasters? Why you shouldn’t count on them
Reporting by Sarah Moore and Dan Basso, USA TODAY NETWORK / Lansing State Journal
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
