By Jamie McGeever
ORLANDO, Florida, April 28 (Reuters) – U.S. tech stocks dived on Tuesday, slammed by worries over the sector’s lofty growth expectations ahead of key earnings reports, while another rise in oil prices stoked concerns over central banks’ ability to navigate the darkening outlook for growth and inflation.
In my column today, I look at outgoing Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s legacy. From an economic perspective, his tenure can be considered a success, with caveats. But perhaps he will best be remembered for his fierce defense of the Fed’s independence and refusal to bow to political pressure from President Donald Trump.
If you have more time to read, here are a few articles I recommend to help you make sense of what happened in markets today.
1. UAE leaves OPEC in major blow to global oil producers’ group
2. UAE exit strips OPEC of clout, risks bitter price war: Bousso
3. Big Tech investors to gauge payoff as AI spending set to hit $600 billion
4. Bank of Japan keeps rates steady but hawkish split points to June hike
5. ‘See through’ Iran war? Markets exploit permacrisis instead: Mike Dolan
Today’s Key Market Moves
• STOCKS: Asia and Europe mostly lower, a few exceptions like KOSPI, FTSE 100 and Japan’s Topix. U.S. stocks fall, tech drags Nasdaq down 0.9%.
• SECTORS/SHARES: U.S. tech -1.3%, chips index -3.6%, software +0.3%. Energy +1.7%. Oracle -4%, CoreWeave -6%.
• FX: Dollar edges up, rises most vs SEK, CHF, NZD. Yen slips after BOJ meeting, Thai baht slips ahead of rate decision.
• BONDS: Global yields rise. 10-year gilt yield above 5% for first time in a month, U.S. 7-year auction is decent – strong demand from direct bidders, weak indirects.
• COMMODITIES/METALS: Oil rises, WTI +4% back above $100/bbl, Brent +3% above $110. Gold -2%, silver -3%.
Today’s Talking Points
* Exiting OPEC
The United Arab Emirates announced on Tuesday it is pulling out of OPEC, the fourth country to quit the bloc in recent years following Angola in 2024, Ecuador in 2020 and Qatar in 2019. This is a bigger deal than all of those though, raising serious questions about the group’s long-term future.
The UAE’s exit will sharply diminish the 65-year-old group’s influence over the oil market, and could pave the way to a price war when the Iran war is over. Although it had been a possibility for years, the timing was something of a surprise – another source of volatility and uncertainty for the oil market right now.
* Bonds on the run
The selling pressure on global sovereign bonds is intensifying. With Brent oil still well above $100 a barrel, energy and fuel prices across the board remain elevated. Consumer and market-based inflation expectations are rising.
Britain’s 10-year gilt yield closed above 5.00% on Tuesday for the first time since 2008, Japan’s 10-year yield matched its highest close since 1997, and average U.S. gasoline prices are the highest in four years. With many major central banks meeting this week, there’s plenty of food for thought.
* Red (hot) Sox
No wonder U.S. semiconductor stocks dived on Tuesday – the boom this month has been historic, by some measures, the most frenzied since 2000. Until Friday, the ‘SOX’ index was up nearly 40% in April and up over 160% from a year earlier – both the most since 2000. It was also the most overbought since 2000 relative to its 200-day moving average, according to BofA.
History doesn’t repeat, but it often rhymes, and investors will be well aware that the Nasdaq took 15 years, and the ‘SOX’ index almost 18 years, to revisit their 2000 peaks after the dotcom bubble burst.
What could move markets tomorrow?
• Developments in the Middle East
• Energy market moves
• Australia inflation (March, Q1)
• Thailand interest rate decision
• ECB lending (March)
• Euro zone inflation expectations, consumer sentiment (April)
• Germany inflation (April)
• European earnings include AstraZeneca, UBS, TotalEnergies, Santander
• Brazil interest rate decision
• Canada interest rate decision
• U.S. interest rate decision
• U.S. durable goods (March)
• U.S. trade balance (March, advance)
• U.S. earnings include Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon
Want to receive Trading Day in your inbox every weekday morning? Sign up for my newsletter here.
Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
(Reporting by Jamie McGeever; Editing by Deepa Babington)
