GDANSK, April 14 (Reuters) – The International Monetary Fund cut its economic growth forecast for Turkey to 3.4% from 4.2% for this year, citing weaker-than-expected activity in 2025 and the drag from higher oil and gas prices.
In its World Economic Outlook report published on Tuesday, the IMF revised the forecast by 0.8 percentage points from its January 2026 outlook. It also cut its 2027 Turkey growth estimate to 3.5% from 4.1% previously.
The Fund said, “2025 growth was weaker than expected and higher oil and gas prices weigh on activity”.Â
In January, the IMF had predicted 2025 growth of 4.1%, but official data published in March showed it was only 3.6%.
The U.S.-Israeli war with Iran has sent energy prices soaring with oil still above $100 a barrel despite a two-week ceasefire, leaving import-reliant economies like Turkey’s vulnerable.Â
The IMF expects inflation in Turkey to average 28.6% in 2026, before easing to 21.4% in 2027.
It forecasts the country’s current account deficit at 2.8% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2026, narrowing slightly to 2.5% of GDP in 2027.
In its October report, the IMF had projected Turkey’s 2026 inflation at 24.7%, and expected the current account deficit to stand at 1.3% of GDP.
(Reporting by Canan Sevgili; Editing by Jonathan Spicer)
