Detroit — Tarik Skubal gets the ball Wednesday in the finale against the Yankees. It will be his third start back after missing five-plus weeks following an arthroscopic procedure to remove a loose body from his elbow on May 6.
To the casual observer, it looks like it’s been an impressively seamless transition. He was OK in his first start in Cleveland. He was better in his second start at Comerica Park against the White Sox.
There’s no radical difference in his velocity or in the shapes and metrics of his secondary pitches. And, as we saw against the White Sox, his intensity and competitiveness have come back blazing.
But, as he revealed on Tuesday, the adjustment has been on two planes — the physical rehabilitation and the pitching rehabilitation. And it goes back well before the surgery. As he is assessing where he’s at heading into his start Wednesday, he’s tossing out the first seven starts of this season.
“This year, I made a lot of adjustments to protect my elbow,” he said. “I knew something was wrong in January.”
That puts those seven starts, where he still posted a 2.70 ERA but with fewer strikeouts (45) and more walks (six) than usual in 43 innings, in a different light.
It also puts his rapid recovery from the procedure in a different light, at least in terms of performance expectations. He’s not only rehabbed the injury, he’s also had to rewire his mechanics to get them back into their normal groove.
“I’ve monitored a lot of things,” he said. “The velocity, the spin rates, mechanics. I’ve used everything that Hawk-Eye (baseball pitch tracking technology) gives us to make sure I’m moving the same way. Not comparing it to this year, but to last year.”
Skubal is measuring the results of his data, both pitch data and biomechanic data, against those in 2025.
“I don’t want to compare myself to April this year,” he said. “I want to compare myself to a longer period of time, like 2025, to make sure I’m more similar to those times.”
And what is the data telling him?
“Honestly, I’m probably moving a little better now,” he said. “More force. More force absorption. I’m decelerating better to where the ball should be coming out hotter. And I’m feeling good in between starts.”
What’s left is a little more sharpening of his tools.
Looking at just the surface metrics, the average velocity on his four-seam fastball and sinker is down just a tick, from 97.6 mph to 96.7. But that number is skewed.
“I’ve been running it up there, 99.9, 99.8, 99.7,” Skubal said. “If I get to 100, I don’t really care. My average heater is 96.7 to 97.2. That’s where it was last year but that took into account September when I sat at 99 the entire month and into the postseason. When I need to get to 99, I’m doing it.”
His sinker is moving just a little less right now — 1.5 inches less vertical and 1 inch more horizontal — and he’s not yet been able to drive it in on his glove side consistently like he typically can.
But it’s the changeup that’s shown the most difference, metrically. Last season, the pitch averaged 6.5 inches of induced vertical movement and 15 inches of horizontal movement. So far, he’s getting 4.7 inches of vertical movement and 13.6 inches of horizontal, according to Baseball Savant.
But that’s still elite. He’s holding hitters to a .167 average with a 47% whiff rate.
The reason it’s even a topic is the two homers he gave up off the changeup in his last start. He gave up only three homers last year in 895 pitches.
“That’s going to happen,” he said. “The one down in the zone (to Randal Grichuk), the fact that gets tagged for a homer – I’m probably going to throw that pitch 100 more times and that’s not going to be the result. Same with the (Junior) Perez homer. It’s a 1-1 changeup away. I’m going to throw that pitch again and again.
“Now if I pull it down and in or elevate it up, then maybe I need to make some adjustment. But middle away, low and away, they put a good swing on it, that’s part of the game.”
Skubal came out firing 98-mph bullets right out of the gate against the White Sox. The velocity dipped slightly through his 5.2 innings, but he ended up with eight strikeouts and 13 whiffs and 20 called strikes.
He’s right there.
“The process is there and that’s what really matters,” he said. “Results are results and I probably need to put better results together for this team and for myself. But as long as my process is good, I’m good.”
Chris.McCosky@detroitnews.com
@cmccosky
This article originally appeared on The Detroit News: Tigers’ Tarik Skubal puts rapid recovery in a different light
Reporting by Chris McCosky, The Detroit News / The Detroit News
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By Chris McCosky, The Detroit News | USA TODAY Network
