The Buffalo Bills offense has been a juggernaut since quarterback Josh Allen became a perennial MVP candidate. The Bills have finished in the top six in points scored in every season since 2020. In three of these seasons, the Bills placed second in points scored.
Allen finished third in Offensive MVP voting, registering 39 total touchdowns in 2025.
The Bills took a major swing this offseason to keep their offense among the best in the league. Buffalo traded for wide receiver D.J. Moore, who instantly becomes Buffalo’s top perimeter receiving option.
Buffalo hopes to continue the magic from James Cook in the backfield. Cook led the NFL with 1,621 rushing yards. Cook quelled any questions about whether he could handle the load of an RB1, as he rushed 309 times last year.
Looking forward, ESPN completed his projections for the 2026 season. Here are the Bills projected stats based on ESPN’s analysis for this upcoming season:
Projected passing stats
The Bills will go as far as Josh Allen can take them. Unshockingly, Allen garners the bulk of the passing stats in Clay’s projections. Allen looks to put up another MVP-type season, continuing his brilliance as the helm of the Buffalo offense.
From a fantasy football perspective, Allen is projected to be the top-scoring quarterback in fantasy points.
Projections:
Allen: 340-of-509; 3,945 passing yards; 26 passing touchdowns; 12 interceptions.
Projected rushing stats
James Cook is projected to have another outstanding season for the Bills. While the predictions take a step back from Cook’s breakout 2025 campaign, Clay still sees Cook having an impressive season out of Buffalo’s backfield.
Ty Johnson, one of the best third-down backs in the league, will see another solid season as a complement to Cook. Ray Davis is projected to fill in gaps for Buffalo’s run game, providing depth for the Bills.
Projections:
Cook: 300 rushing attemps; 1,400 rushing yards; 11 touchodowns; 36 receptions; 302 receiving yards; 2 receiving touchodnws
Johnson: 51 rushing attempts, 219 yards, 2 touchdowns, 22 receptions, 208 passing yards, 1 touchdown reception
Davis: 32 rushing attempts, 208 rushing yards, 1 touchdown, 8 receptions, 60 receiving yards
Projected receiving stats
If you followed the Bills in any way this season, you read and heard about Buffalo’s need for consistent play from their perimeter players. With this in mind, the Bills addressed their issues out wide by acquiring D.J. Moore from the Chicago Bears.
Buffalo has a premier slot receiver in Khalil Shakir, and there’s little to think that he won’t be one of Allen’s favorite targets once again. Beyond Moore and Shakir, the depth chart is in a bit of flux.
Keon Coleman has had a roller coaster career in his Buffalo uniform. This will be a massive year for him. Can he live up to the hype of an early second-round pick? Can he overcome bouts of immaturity? The answer to those questions will ultimately determine his long-term outlook with the Bills.
Joshua Palmer was poised to be a major part of the Buffalo offense last year. A 2025 free agent acquisition, Plamer feell short of his potential. Injuries and lack of production left the Bills longing for more from the former Charger.
Buffalo drafted Skyler Bell in the fourth round of this April’s NFL Draft. Bell is an intriguing player. His skill set provides the Bills with new options in creating mismatches on the field. It wouldn’t be surprising to see his snap count increase quite a bit by the end of the season.
Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox give the Bills solid options from the tight end spot. Buffalo hopes Kincaid can stay healthy enough to be the weapon that he is capable of being. Knox is an all-everything player for the Bills offense. Simply put, he does a little bit of everything well.
Receiving projections:
Moore: 67 receptions, 107 targets, 946 yards, 7 touchdowns
Shakir: 70 receptions, 92 targets, 765 yards, 4 touchdowns
Coleman: 19 receptions, 33 targets, 266 yards, 2 touchdowns
Palmer: 17 receptions, 27 targets, 205 yards, 1 touchdown
Bell: 15 receptions, 26 targets, 205 yards, 1 touchdown
Kincaid: 59 receptions, 82 targets, 698 yards, 4 touchdowns
Knox: 25 receptions, 36 targets, 265 yards, 3 touchdowns
Projected team offense stats
Once again, the Bills are projected to complete an impressive offensive season. Allen and Cook are slated to be leaders in their respective positions. In addition, Clay anticipates Buffalo’s complementary pieces to show up at the right moments.
Projected Wins: 10 (9th)
Projected Points Scored: 472 points (2nd)
The Bills are just about a month away from players attending training camp. Buffalo returns to St. John Fisher to ramp up their offseason progress ahead of Week 1.
This article originally appeared on Bills Wire: What are ESPN’s stat projections for Bills offense in 2026?
Reporting by Justin DiLoro, USA TODAY / Bills Wire
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
By Justin DiLoro, USA TODAY | USA TODAY Network
