ESPN has released its projected playoff chances for each NFL team heading into the 2026 season, including the Jacksonville Jaguars.
These metrics are calculated by ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) model.
“Projected results are based on 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule.”
Jaguars projected win-loss totals and playoff chances for 2026
As of now, ESPN has the Jaguars with a projected win-loss record of 9-8. This is the 17th-best record in the NFL.
Jacksonville’s overall strength of schedule this season ranks around the middle of the pack, but adding to the challenge will be a difficult stretch to start the season, along with facing a road-heavy schedule.
The Jaguars’ playoff chances sit at 54%, which ranks 14th.
Taking this a few steps further, the Jaguars’ chances of winning the AFC South are 34.9%, while their chances of making it to the Super Bowl are at 6.3%.
Jacksonville has a 2.9% chance of winning the Super Bowl, according to ESPN, the 13th-best chance of any team.
Despite the Jaguars going 13-4 last season and winning the AFC South, many are down on Jacksonville heading into this season. That is largely due to a quiet free agent period and a draft class that has often been criticized.
That said, continuity will be a key element for the Jaguars this season. Relatively speaking, there was little roster turnover, while having a second full offseason in Liam Coen and Anthony Campanile’s schemes could be the catalyst behind a Year 2 leap in 2026.
Coen has also stressed the importance of maintaining a high level of urgency throughout the offseason, so last season’s performance becomes the norm and not the outlier.
This article originally appeared on Jaguars Wire: Jaguars projected playoff and Super Bowl chances for 2026 NFL season
Reporting by Paul Bretl, Jaguars Wire / Jaguars Wire
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
By Paul Bretl, Jaguars Wire | USA TODAY Network
