I recently had lunch with a long-time friend who is one of the brightest people I know. He is a futurist, a technologist, and he stays enormously well informed on a wide array of topics. I guess you can do that when you don’t have a spouse or kids to fill up your day. Anyway, he’s also very lucid in the way he synthesizes information to form an opinion. As usual at our lunches, I did little but eat and listen, occasionally throwing out a prompt to move him from subject to subject.
Below are some high points of our conversation, with apologies in advance to my readers for straying out of my usual lane. Still, I hope some of what follows is as thought-provoking for you as it was for me.
First of all, the grandaddy of all contemporary subjects today is, of course, artificial intelligence (AI). Frankly, my eyes gloss over when the subject comes up as so much of it seems like complete hype. My buddy, who is into AI up to his neck, feels otherwise. The future, he says, has become more unpredictable than perhaps any other time in history. The potential consequences are frightening, especially for the vast sea of white-collar workers who are especially vulnerable to being displaced. As careers go, young people should be looking hard at blue-collar trades: carpenter, electrician, hair stylist, plumber, welder, etc. There are currently some 19 million people in college in this country, many undertaking courses of study that will lead them nowhere. In contrast, there are about three million currently enrolled in trade schools and vocational programs. Those numbers need to begin evening up.
And apart from the pending sea change to employment opportunities, there are other risk factors to be aware of. There are five giant companies in the AI field, three of which are talking about undertaking initial public offerings that could create valuations of more than one trillion dollars apiece. Think about it: that’s one thousand billion dollars … each. The entire gross domestic product of the US is only about $32 trillion. Does that seem a little scary to you? It does to me, especially considering this nascent industry has been around only a few years and is almost entirely unregulated. And after you digest the fact that even AI savants don’t understand exactly how the thing works, it makes you want to go hide under a rock.
If that isn’t thought-provoking enough, consider the recent case of PocketOS, a recent start-up that provides software to the rental car industry. Its files were recently wiped clean by a rogue AI platform that ignored one of its base instructions expressly not to do that. The AI interface admitted the lapse in judgement and said it was very sorry for its action. I’m sure the company’s management took great comfort in the apology, but I expect it was quite the wake-up call for other firms who have allowed AI unfettered access to their proprietary information.
OK, enough about that. We also talked about population trends, especially declining birth rates in developed countries that are starting to have a material impact. While real estate values in most urban centers continue to rise, declines in some suburban and especially rural areas have started to surface. Countries like Italy and Japan have seen some communities almost disappear as migration to the big cities has hammered outlying property values. In this country, our population growth has slowed to near zero as birth rates and net immigration have both fallen sharply in recent years. If you consider Japan to be something of the proverbial canary in the coal mine, it’s not hard to conclude that home prices outside of major metropolitan areas could start to fall even here.
Still other topics includes Taiwan and the potential for a mainland Chinese takeover. My guy thinks this is inevitable and will take place in the not-too-distant future. However, it’s not likely to be a shooting war but more likely a blockade where Taiwan will essentially be precluded from international trade. Despite its small size relative to China, Taiwan has many of the natural and intellectual assets China needs. The result will likely be a much less freewheeling economy, much in the way that Hong Kong has changed in the years since China took over there.
Elsewhere, an uneasy truce between Russia and Ukraine may not be far away, given that both sides are exhausted and nearly broke, but conflict in the Middle East has been ongoing for 2,000 years and that’s unlikely to change anytime soon. So much for the big picture.
Finally, a personal note. Tomorrow is Memorial Day, a holiday for sure but not one born of happiness. For many, it’s a day of sadness and reflection, but I hope this day brings you comfort. And to all you readers who have gone out and returned wearing the stars and stripes, a tip of the virtual cap. You are the reason that letters like this can be written and read.
Mike Rivkin and his wife, Linda, are long-time residents of Rancho Mirage. For many years, he was an award-winning catalogue publisher and has authored seven books, along with countless articles. Now, he’s the owner of Antique Galleries of Palm Springs. His antiques column appears Sundays in The Desert Sun. Want to send Mike a question about antiques? Drop him a line at silverfishpress@gmail.com.
This article originally appeared on Palm Springs Desert Sun: Just where is technology leading us? Some things to think about
Reporting by Mike Rivkin, Special to The Desert Sun / Palm Springs Desert Sun
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