On paper, heading into the 2026 NFL season, the Jacksonville Jaguars’ schedule ranks almost right in the middle in terms of difficulty.
The Jaguars will play a modest six playoff teams from last season in 2026. Based on their opponents’ projected win totals, the Jaguars strength of schedule ranks 15th in the NFL.
ESPN analytics has the Jaguars with the 13th-easiest schedule this season.
That said, how many wins is this year’s schedule projected to churn out for the Jaguars? Well, not nearly as many as last year, with ESPN’s projected win total for Jacksonville sitting at 8.5.
Mike Clay recently went game-by-game, sharing the win-probability projections for the Jaguars. In only seven games do the Jaguars have a greater than a 50% of winning.
These probabilities also highlight what is expected to be a difficult start to the year.
Jaguars 2026 win probabilities for each game
This article originally appeared on Jaguars Wire: Game-by-game win probability projections for Jaguars 2026 NFL schedule
Reporting by Paul Bretl, Jaguars Wire / Jaguars Wire
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
