This Tuesday, Kentuckians from almost two dozen counties will determine the outcome of one of the most-watched political races in the country: U.S. Rep. Thomas Massie vs. Republican challenger Ed Gallrein.
The outcome of the race will determine more than who will represent the roughly 800,000 residents in Kentucky’s 4th District. It serves as a litmus test for the Republican party: Can GOP lawmakers oppose President Donald Trump – even sometimes – and stay in office? Or is Trump’s influence over the party, despite being a lame duck president, still absolute?
Here’s what to know about the race:
The race looks different in the district
To most of the nation, it’s a battle between President Trump and a Republican who has rebelled against him.
But the TV ads and mailers, which is how most voters in Northern Kentucky have experienced the race, tell a different story. And there have been a lot of ads and mailers.
In fact, it’s the most expensive U.S. House primary in history. Axios, citing AdImpact, said the $25.6 million in ad spending in the race propelled it past the previous winner, a 2024 Democratic primary in New York.
In the ads seen by voters, Massie has portrayed himself as the MAGA loyalist and Gallrein as the betrayer of Trump’s values. Massie has labeled Gallrein “woke Eddie” and pointed out that Gallrein briefly left the GOP after Trump was first elected.
It’s a bold take for a politician who has publicly opposed Trump on issues like federal spending, overseas wars, and the release of the Epstein files.
Trump sought out a challenger for Massie and Gallrein, a former Navy SEAL who had never held office, stepped forward.
Trump himself came to the district to rally for Gallrein in March.
At the rally, Gallrein said, “Mr. President, I will stand with you and the party to put America first and Kentucky always. … Tom Massie stands with the ladies of ‘The View.’ Mr. President, we stand with you.”
Will the real MAGA Republican please stand up?
The Massie-Trump-Gallrein race has caused a split among MAGA Republican leaders.
For instance, Rep. Warren Davidson, of Ohio, and Rep. Lauren Boebert, of Colorado, are campaigning for Massie, alongside Statehouse Republicans and Kentucky’s U.S. Senator Rand Paul.
State Sen. Gex Williams, R-Verona, told voters at an event this winter, “Whereas Trump is the ultimate MAGA spokesman … Thomas Massie is the ultimate MAGA implementer.”
That sentiment is not unusual in Northern Kentucky where plenty of Republican officials credit Massie with launching or supporting their political careers.
But others aren’t so eager to join Massie’s “liberty warriors,” as the congressman called his supporters.
Massie’s own House colleague, U.S. Rep. Andy Barr, a Lexington Republican, endorsed Gallrein.
“Northern Kentucky needs a leader who will stand shoulder-to-shoulder with President Trump and always fight for the MAGA agenda,” Barr said in a statement. “Ed will never side with AOC or the radical-left against President Trump. He is exactly the kind of conservative warrior we need in Congress, and I’m proud to endorse him.”
Barr is also running to fill longtime U.S. Sen. Mitch McConnell’s seat this fall. Trump endorsed Barr in the crowded Republican primary.
Gallrein is putting in ‘old-fashioned’ work
Massie is a fixture on social media, with 1.7 million followers on X, where he often posts with the hashtag #sassywithMassie. He’s a fixture in the district, too, well known after serving for 14 years.
Gallrein has ignored most interview requests, refused to debate Massie and held few public rallies. But that doesn’t mean he hasn’t been putting himself in front of voters throughout the district.
According to his campaign team, and social media posts, Gallrein has spoken to people at Optimist Clubs, business luncheons, political dinners, chambers of commerce and at intimate house meet and greets.
“I’ve been embraced by these communities out here – that there’s somebody that’s one of them (running for office),” Gallrein told The Enquirer.
Their biggest gripe about politics, he said, is Massie.
“Nothing can get done for this district in terms of policy, legislation, goods and services because our current representative is an impediment to all such things,” Gallrein said. “He’s got a problem for every solution.”
AI ads and stacks of mailers
The race has been marked by AI-infused ads and even an AI-infused mistake.
A Gallrein campaign post accidentally included what appeared to be instructions to an AI chatbot. “Here’s a polished social media post in your usual campaign/community-focused tone,” the post began, before it segued into the topic of the post – visiting a festival in Vanceburg to celebrate “faith, family, patriotism, and neighbors coming together.”
An anti-Massie ad went so far as to falsely insinuate that Massie had sex with high-profile Democrats. The ad uses AI to create video of Massie holding hands with high-profile Democratic women and checking into a hotel with them, which he has not done.
“Woke Eddie’s billionaire puppet masters are running this disgusting and defamatory ad now,” Massie responded on social media. “It reeks of desperation, but they’re hoping the older generation won’t realize it’s an AI generated lie.”
But Massie has also used AI in an ad. In one of the most recent ones, Massie stands next to a cartoon elephant wearing a MAGA hat with a tuft of yellow hair, clearly meant to represent Trump.
“Let’s just talk about the elephant in the room. I agree with President Trump a whole lot more than I disagree with him,” Massie said in the ad. “President Trump and I have a whole lot more to get done together.”
Last-minute ‘hush money’ accusation from political foes
A week before the primary election, Massie’s former girlfriend released a video accusing him of offering her $5,000 to “walk away” from Washington D.C.
Massie confirmed he dated Cynthia West after his wife died but denied that he ever offered to pay her money for silence.
The issue was made more complicated by the fact that three of Massie’s former political rivals were connected with the release of the video.
This article originally appeared on Cincinnati Enquirer: The Massie-Gallrein race is not what most people think
Reporting by Jolene Almendarez, Cincinnati Enquirer / Cincinnati Enquirer
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
