By Mike Dolan
May 6 (Reuters) – What matters in U.S. and global markets today
By Mike Dolan, Editor-at-Large, Finance and Markets
Oil prices slumped and global stocks surged after reports that the U.S. and Iran were nearing a one-page memorandum to end the war in the Gulf. That news came shortly after U.S. President Donald Trump said he would pause his operation to reopen Gulf shipping, just days after so-called ‘Project Freedom’ began.
To be fair, broader stock indexes didn’t need any excuse to rally, with newly upgraded AI spending estimates already lifting Wall Street and global bourses on Tuesday.
I’ll get into that and more below.
But first, check out my latest column on what long bonds over 5% could mean for investors in an uncertain world.
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END IN SIGHT?
The apparent one-page U.S.-Iran deal would involve both sides unblocking the Strait of Hormuz, among other provisions, according to an Axios report. The report said the U.S. expects Iranian responses on key points in the next 48 hours. Oil continued its slide after the news, with Brent crude trading as low as $100 per barrel.
MSCI’s all-country index hit an all-time high on Wednesday as global stocks leapt once again on the renewed peace hopes and robust AI demand. Wall Street futures rose before the bell, while European shares advanced to a two-week high after the open.
In Asia, South Korea’s KOSPI surpassed the 7,000 mark for the first time as a semiconductor stock rally saw Samsung Electronics surge 12% to join the trillion-dollar stock club.
U.S. stocks also touched fresh records on Tuesday. Intel jumped 13% on reports that it was in talks with Apple to produce the main processors for its devices, while AMD leapt 16% in extended trading after becoming the latest chipmaker to boost its demand forecasts.
However, long-dated government bonds have come back under pressure this week. The U.S. 30-year Treasury yield briefly topped 5% on Tuesday before recoiling from that level for at least the eighth time over the past three years.
Gilts were also under the cosh as long-term British borrowing rates hit their highest point since 1998. That comes ahead of UK local elections on Thursday, where a poor showing from Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s ruling Labour Party could increase political pressure on him to step down.
Elsewhere, the yen jumped again on Wednesday for at least the fourth time in the past week – touching 155 per dollar before paring some of those gains – on continued speculation about intervention by Tokyo. It stepped in to support the currency last Thursday, according to Reuters sources.
A welter of corporate earnings and a big labor-market data week dominate the rest of the week stateside, with companies reporting on Wednesday including Disney, Uber and Apollo. Friday, meanwhile, will bring the latest U.S. employment report for April, with expectations for a gain of 62,000 jobs, down from March’s 178,000.
Chart of the day
S&P 500 companies are now on track to post aggregate earnings growth of 28% year-over-year for the first quarter, the strongest quarterly profit growth since 2021, according to LSEG research. The estimate stood at just 14% a month ago. Full-year 2026 earnings growth forecasts are now 23%, up from 17% at the start of this year.
Today’s events to watch
* U.S. corporate earnings: Apollo, DoorDash, Uber, Walt Disney, Warner Bros
* St. Louis Fed’s Alberto Musalem and Chicago Fed’s Austan Goolsbee speak
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(By Mike Dolan)
