INDIANAPOLIS — On Feb. 27, when the Strait of Hormuz was a free-flowing global transit point for 20% of the oil market, the average gas price in the Midwest was $2.68 for a gallon of regular. Even so, economic warning signs were brewing. The Elkhart-based RV Industry Association reported February shipments fell 10.9% from a year earlier.
The association’s president and CEO, Craig Kirby, observed, “The near-term outlook is supported by improving economic fundamentals and stabilizing RV market conditions with momentum building in the second half of the year to position the industry for more durable future growth.”
On Feb. 28, President Donald J. Trump launched his war against Iran. A few days later, he posted on social media, “There will be no deal with Iran except UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!”
This war of choice put thousands of Hoosier active-duty military personnel on high alert. The last time the United States invaded a Middle Eastern country (Afghanistan in 2001, Iraq in 2003), it cost the lives of more than 200 Hoosier soldiers.
Average Indiana gas prices have subsequently skyrocketed to $4.13 a gallon, prompting state Sen. Travis Holdman to call on Gov. Mike Braun to suspend the state’s gas tax, which Braun did on Wednesday. The last oil shocks in 1973 and 1979 pushed jobless rates in Indiana’s RV belt over 10%.
The cascading chaos we have experienced since Feb. 28 has been extraordinary. While Iran’s leadership was decapitated and its military assets severely degraded, this rogue nation essentially took the Strait of Hormuz and the world energy system hostage.
A cornered Trump threatened Iran on Easter Sunday, posting on Truth Social, “Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!! Open the F—in’ Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell – JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah.”
Historian Douglas Brinkley observed Wednesday on MS NOW’s “Morning Joe”: “It was the single worst utterance by a president of the United States ever.”
Tuesday morning, Trump added, “A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again. I don’t want that to happen, but it probably will.”
By Tuesday night, Trump pulled back. “I agree to suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks,” he said on Truth Social. “This will be a double sided CEASEFIRE! The reason for doing so is that we have already met and exceeded all Military objectives …”
Trump called a 10-point Iranian ceasefire plan a “workable basis.” It would give Iran control of the strait, allow its nuclear program to exist and require the U.S. to withdraw from its Persian Gulf bases.
Essentially, the “workable” plan is bogus. But it gave Trump an off-ramp from what would be energy Armageddon if the U.S. and Israel destroyed Iranian infrastructure, which would have brought a damaging response to Qatar, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Iraq.
At 12:01 a.m. Wednesday, Trump posted, “A big day for World Peace! Iran wants it to happen, they’ve had enough! Big money will be made.”
Later Wednesday, Trump suggested a U.S. business partnership with the terrorist nation to collect Strait of Hormuz shipping tolls. “We’re thinking of doing it as a joint venture,” Trump told ABC News’ Jonathan Karl. “It’s a beautiful thing.”
What’s my take?
A lot is going on. We have a classic two-week Trump reprieve. Then what? These types of negotiations take months, if not years, to resolve.
The Pentagon has undergone a huge purge, with Army Chief of Staff Gen. Randy George becoming the 20th senior commander fired since the war began. George’s farewell letter described the need for “courageous leadership of character.” The U.S. entered this sequence after Trump fired his Department of Homeland Security secretary and his cybersecurity chief resigned in protest. FBI Director Kash Patel dismissed most of his agency’s C-12 staff with expertise on Iran.
Trump failed to build a “coalition of the willing” as President George H.W. Bush did after Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990. Trump didn’t seek congressional approval, as President George W. Bush did in 2002. Trump didn’t consult allies until the Strait of Hormuz closed, and then he insulted them.
Trump has declared victory at least eight times; claimed “we won” 10 times; said Iran has been “obliterated” or “decimated” half a dozen times. His deadlines and declarations on social media appear to be tied to Dow market cycles.
Trump began this war with little public approval in the United States. Allied diplomats are spooked. And he doesn’t appear to be grasping the basics, like knowing the enemy.
Iran expert Karim Sadjadpour observed in an essay published in The Atlantic, “The Islamic Republic operates under a survival paradox: What makes the regime thrive makes the nation suffer, and what would allow the nation to thrive threatens the regime’s survival. Trump is measuring this war not by what it will achieve but by what it has destroyed,” he added.
All of this reconstitutes the notion of the ugly American and has now positioned the United States of America as an emerging rogue nation. It breaks my heart to write that. Its commander-in-chief has lost control of events — and himself.
Indiana’s RV belt faces a looming dilemma — but it may be the least of the Hoosier State’s worries in the coming weeks and months.
Brian Howey is an opinion columnist for State Affairs Indiana and the founder of Howey Politics Indiana. His writing offers analysis and opinion shaped by decades of experience covering Indiana politics. Email him at howey@stateaffairs.com.
This article originally appeared on South Bend Tribune: War’s ‘cascading chaos’ felt from Hormuz to Elkhart | Opinion
Reporting by Brian Howey, Columnist / South Bend Tribune
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
