EAST LANSING – All the highs and lows and lessons learned throughout the course of Michigan State basketball’s season comes down to this:
Can the Spartans rediscover their early defensive tenacity and blend it with their late offensive surge to make another deep run in the NCAA Tournament?
If so, Tom Izzo could have a ninth Final Four within reach. If not – and if the struggles to stop opponents continue, MSU (No. 8 in the USA TODAY Sports College Poll) could have a difficult time reaching the second weekend.
“You have to focus on the first time, and that’s what we’ll do,” Izzo said Sunday, March 15. “We will prepare for all three teams, because that’s what we do. The deal here is to win the weekend.”
The Spartans (25-7) are the No. 3 seed in the East region, opening Izzo’s 28th straight NCAA appearance against No. 14 seed North Dakota State on Thursday (4:05 p.m., TNT) at KeyBank Center in Buffalo, New York. The winner advances to face either 6-seed Louisville or 11-seed South Florida on Saturday for a Sweet 16 berth.
The Spartans appeared headed toward a 2-seed before their Big Ten Tournament loss to UCLA on Friday. Compounding that was a postseason run by No. 13 Purdue to the Big Ten Tournament title over No. 3 Michigan on Sunday, which ultimately cost Izzo’s team a higher seed.
“The Big Ten championship had an impact on our seed line,” said Keith Gill, the Sun Belt Conference commissioner and chair of this year’s NCAA selection committee. Gill added that MSU was likely a 2-seed before Purdue’s run, and the Boilermakers leaped over the Spartans, Illinois and Gonzaga to steal the higher slot.
Regardless, MSU is now tied with Kansas for the longest streak of consecutive NCAA Tournament berths as Izzo, in his 31th season, extended his record for the most consecutive NCAA appearances by a Division I coach with a single school. The path to another Final Four, like Izzo’s last in 2019, also would mean going to Washington for an imposing East regional that potentially could include 1-seed Duke and 2-seed Connecticut.
Here are three reasons the Spartans can make a run to another Final Four in Indianapolis and how they can reach their ceiling and avoid the stumbles they’ve at times endured.
Jeremy Fears Jr.
About 15 months after being shot in the upper left thigh, Fears led the Spartans to a Big Ten regular-season title last season, as wel as their first Elite Eight appearance since 2019. This season, the third-year sophomore picked up where he left off and has become a bona fide – albeit much-maligned – superstar in his second full year after his recovery.
The 6-foot-2, 185-pound Fears earned first-team All-Big Ten honors and was a third-team All-American selection (Sporting News) last week. His 9.2 assists per game lead Division I, just above Purdue’s Braden Smith (nine), while Fears is averaging a team-best 15.7 points, 1.3 steals and 32.2 minutes per game. He is up to 32% from 3-point range and shooting 44.5% overall while adding 2.4 rebounds a game.
Having elite point guard play allows the Spartans to play differing offensive styles, including their preferred full-throttle, high-tempo, fast-break basketball in which Fears and Coen Carr can run an opponent out of the gym. But if MSU meets a team that wants to slog it up, Fears can drive and penetrate downhill and use tourney-experienced senior big men in Jaxon Kohler and Carson Cooper to be productive in the halfcourt.
The obvious caveat: The Spartans need Fears to be on the court, rather than having lapses that cause controversy-creating fouls and take him out of his aggressive style of play. The NCAAs mean different referee crews as well, so avoiding multiple fouls will be critical for Fears, whose previous backup Divine Ugochukwu is out for the year with an injury and current backup Denham Wojcik is best suited for very short stints to give the MSU star a rest.
Experience
Those core four veterans and their younger sidekicks also have something else going for them: a season filled with playing opponents with varied approaches and systems, along with 28 straight single matchup preparations (plus two one-play exhibitions) to begin the season.
Of the 15 other teams in the East Region, MSU has played 2-seed Connecticut in a blowout exhibition loss on Oct. 28 and 1-seed Duke in a six-point home loss on Dec. 6. The Spartans also split with 7-seed UCLA (a 23-point home win on Feb. 17 and an 88-84 Big Ten Tournament loss on Friday in Chicago), and escaped a sluggish showing at home against 8-seed Ohio State for a six-point win on Feb. 22.
The Spartans finished 15-5 and tied for second during a grueling Big Ten regular season with wins over the Boilermakers (the 2-seed in West) and Illinois (3-seed in South). They also earned impressive nonconference victories over No. 15 Arkansas (a 4-seed in West and the SEC Tournament champ), No. 21 North Carolina (6-seed in South) and Kentucky (7-seed in Midwest).
MSU had the 21st-toughest strength of schedule this season, according to KenPom, and Izzo’s team finished 11th in the NCAA’s NET Ranking while going 2-3 against four of the teams ranked above it (including two losses to Midwest 1-seed Michigan). The Spartans’ nine Quad 1 wins were tied for eighth-most with Kansas and Nebraska, which beat MSU on Jan. 2 by two in Lincoln. Both the Jayhawks (East) and Cornhuskers (South) earned 4-seeds.
Tom Izzo
It’s said every year that Izzo has earned the nickname “Mr. March.” The 71-year-old’s eight Final Four appearances are the most among active Division I coaches, and the Spartans are 59-26 in the tourney during his streak of 28 straight appearances that began in 1998 with his first Sweet 16 appearance and included the 2000 national championship.
A year ago, MSU advanced to Izzo’s 11th Elite Eight and 16th Sweet 16. Nothing motivates him more than trying to get back to another Final Four – other than the thought of winning his second national title.
Contact Chris Solari: csolari@freepress.com. Follow him @chrissolari.
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This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Why Michigan State basketball can reach Final Four in March Madness
Reporting by Chris Solari, Detroit Free Press / Detroit Free Press
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
