There is a whisper of snow for the northern reaches of the Sunshine State, models flirting with chances that a second frigid cold front could scoop up enough moisture off the Gulf to rain down a quiet frozen flake, or two. Maybe more.
The forecast, which has been debated on social media by wishcasters and meteorologists alike, would not be the dump of record-breaking white stuff that hit the Panhandle on Jan. 21, 2025, where up to 10 inches of snow was recorded in Escambia County.
But National Weather Service meteorologists said on Wednesday, Jan. 14 that there is a chance for a “quick burst” of snow Saturday Jan. 17 into Sunday.
“It is far more likely that it doesn’t happen,” cautioned Mark Wool, warning coordination meteorologist with the National Weather Service office in Tallahassee. “Our forecasters today will be taking a deeper dive because we’ve seen a consistent signal for a low chance.”
Any snow would be restricted to the I-10 corridor in Florida, but the cold weather will drop all the way through the Peninsula with the first snap of chill hitting the Panhandle Thursday night and reaching South Florida Friday morning.
Temperatures in the Panhandle are forecast to plunge into the mid to upper 20s inland while hovering near freezing along the coast.
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A freeze watch is in effect for areas from Northeast Florida and the Big Bend into east Central Florida, and inland areas of the west coast for Thursday night into Friday morning. South Florida is bracing for temperatures south of Lake Okeechobee dipping into the low 30s and coastal areas hitting the high 30s to low 40s.
For South Florida, Monday, Jan. 19 will be the 48th anniversary of snow falling as far south as Homestead Air Force Base — the farthest south snow has been recorded in the contiguous U.S.
Previous to Jan. 19, 1977, the farthest south snow had been seen was along a Fort Myers to Fort Pierce line in February 1899, according to the National Weather Service in Miami.
Wool said the upcoming anniversary of the Panhandle blizzard may be why social media is alight with quarrels over which models to watch and whether the different readings are consistent.
“Any amount of snow is impactful,” Wool said. “But last year was a once in a lifetime event that we will probably never see again.”
Climatologically, it is not supposed to snow in South Florida. The laid back tropics are a region constantly gaining energy from the sun, and with Florida’s temperatures moderated by warm water on three sides, snow is unusual even in northern reaches of the state.
It takes a very precise recipe for the atmosphere to produce snow for Florida.
Typically, the moisture that comes with a cold front moves through before the air gets cold enough to make snow, Wool said.
In 2025, the snow was the result of a crash of systems that included an Arctic cold front bearing down from the north with an area of low pressure drawing in warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico, now referred to as the Gulf of America by the U.S. Government.
“Everything has to be set up perfectly for snow to happen,” said meteorologist Michael Mugrage, who works in the Mobile/Pensacola office of the NWS. “It’s honestly really hard to get snow down here.”
And forecasters in Mugrage’s office downplayed some of the social media hype early on Wednesday.
“Could we see a few flurries? Potentially, but the probability of that is fairly low right now in the current pattern.”
Kimberly Miller is a journalist for the USA TODAY NETWORK FLORIDA. She covers weather, the environment and critters as the Embracing Florida reporter. If you have news tips, please send them to kmiller@pbpost.com. You can get all of Florida’s best content directly in your inbox each weekday by signing up for the free newsletter, Florida TODAY, at https://palmbeachpost.com/newsletters.
This article originally appeared on Palm Beach Post: Snow in Florida? Forecast shows low but real chance this weekend
Reporting by Kimberly Miller, USA TODAY NETWORK – Florida / Palm Beach Post
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