The Texas Tech football team and its Kansas State counterpart both have high stakes going into their Big 12 game Saturday, Nov. 1, in Manhattan, Kansas.
No. 13 Tech (7-1, 4-1 in the Big 12) needs to win to stay in the race for the Big 12 championship game and a berth in the College Football Playoff. Kansas State (4-4, 3-2) needs two triumphs to become bowl eligible and hasn’t finished below .500 since the COVID-disrupted 2020 season, Chris Klieman’s second year as the Wildcats’ head coach.
Tech bounced back from its only loss two weeks ago at Arizona State, dispatching Oklahoma State 42-0 last week. Kansas State, top 20 in both major polls to start the season, has rebounded from a disappointing first half with resounding victories over TCU and Kansas its past two times out.
The two teams kick off at 2:30 p.m. Saturday at Bill Snyder Family Stadium. Here’s a preview.
When Texas Tech football runs
Tech didn’t run the ball very effectively the past two weeks, but that’s an anomaly. RB Cameron Dickey (113 carries, 678 yards, 9 touchdowns) is the Big 12’s third-leading rusher, and RB J’Koby Williams (75-390-4 rushing, 19-295-2 receiving) is an all-purpose threat. The Red Raiders are averaging 199 yards per game on the ground, fourth in the 16-team conference. Veteran LBs Austin Romaine (25 career starts) and Des Purnell (34 career starts) form one of the better combos in the Big 12 and are 1-2 on the team with 55 and 46 tackles, respectively. Between them, they have 11 1/2 tackles for loss. The Wildcats have tightened up the run defense since allowing 100-yard rushers three weeks in a row against Army, Arizona and UCF.
Advantage: Texas Tech
When Texas Tech football passes
QB Behren Morton is back in the saddle after two weeks off to heal lower-leg and triceps injuries. Morton said this week the lower-leg injury was the more troublesome and lingering of the two, but declared himself back in good condition. He’ll try to spread the ball among WRs Coy Eakin (34-455-4), Caleb Douglas (33-512-2) and Reggie Virgil (32-363-5) and play keep-away from LB Des Purnell (2 INTs, including a pick-six vs. TCU). CB Zashon Rich ranks among the Big 12 leaders in passes defended with 8, and Star DBs Qua Moss and Daniel Cobbs and SS Gunnar Maldonado have 2 INTs apiece.
Advantage: Texas Tech
When Kansas State football runs
Kansas State is expected to be without top RB Dylan Edwards for the fifth time in nine games. More than many teams, the K-State rushing offense depends heavily on QB run with Avery Johnson (66-255-5). No one knows better than the Red Raiders. Two years ago as a freshman, Johnson ripped Tech for five rushing touchdowns in a 38-21 K-State victory at Jones AT&T Stadium. Leading rusher Joe Jackson (95-382-1) carried 27 times for 110 yards in the win over TCU and 20 times for 69 yards against Kansas. In Texas Tech’s No. 1-ranked rush defense, LBs Jacob Rodriguez (72 tackles, 5 caused fumbles) and Ben Roberts (51 tackles) often have clear pursuit lanes thanks to DTs Lee Hunter and A.J. Holmes.
Advantage: Texas Tech
When Kansas State football passes
On paper, the most telltale matchup of all pits Tech edge rushers David Bailey (FBS-leading 10 1/2 sacks, plus 10 quarterback hurries) and Romello Height (5 sacks, 9 quarterback hurries) against elusive QB Avery Johnson (1,792 yards, 15 TDs passing). Johnson’s experience shows: He’s cut his interception count from 10 last year to 2 this season. K-State OTs John Pastore and Andrew Leingang will try to foil the rush long enough for Johnson to find WRs Jayce Brown (36-577-4) and Jaron Tibbs (32-403-3) or TE Garrett Oakley (25-274-4). Brown’s topped 100 yards receiving two of the past three games.
Advantage: Texas Tech
Special teams
Texas Tech RB J’Koby Williams and Kansas State WR Bryce Noernberg have each popped a 99-yard kickoff-return touchdown, Noernberg on Sept. 6 against Army and Williams last week against Oklahoma State. That’s helped their teams rank fifth and 13th in the FBS in kickoff-return average. In the field-goals department, job-sharing Tech kickers Stone Harrington and Upton Bellenfant are 14 of 17 combined, and Kansas State’s Luis Rodriguez has made 10 of 11 with his only miss on a blocked 56-yard try. Tech has five blocked kicks, two each by DB A.J. McCarty and RB Oliver Miles III.
Advantage: Even
Score prediction for Texas Tech football at Kansas State
Texas Tech 31, Kansas State 27: Texas Tech’s the more talented team and a 7-point favorite. How might the Wildcats make up for that? They’re the least penalized team in the Big 12, and they’re second in the Big 12 and eighth in the FBS in turnover margin. Tech has a decade-plus history of failure in Manhattan, so don’t be surprised if it’s uncomfortably close in the fourth quarter.
This article originally appeared on Lubbock Avalanche-Journal: Texas Tech football at Kansas State — Scouting report, prediction for Big 12 game
Reporting by Don Williams, Lubbock Avalanche-Journal / Lubbock Avalanche-Journal
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
