Tropical Storm Melissa is expected to strengthen into a hurricane Friday, Oct. 24, and become a Category 3 storm with 120-mph winds Oct. 27, according to the National Hurricane Center.
A major hurricane is one that is at least a Category 3 storm, with maximum sustained winds of at least 111 mph.
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Will Melissa impact Florida, either directly or indirectly? That remains to be seen.
The National Hurricane Center said “there is significant uncertainty in the track and intensity forecast of Melissa.”
“At this time, I think the chances of any direct or even indirect impacts on Florida, beyond waves and rip currents, are very low, around 15% or so,” said AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva via email Oct. 21.
“If Florida were to see any impacts, it would likely be around the middle of next week — Wednesday through Friday (Oct. 29-31). There’s nothing imminent right now, but it’s something to keep an eye on over the next few days.”
The National Hurricane Center is also tracking two tropical waves in the Atlantic basin.
Florida residents should monitor the the tropics closely and, as always, remain prepared.
Here’s the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center as of 11 a.m., Oct. 22:
What to know about Tropical Storm Melissa
Special note on the NHC cone: The forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time.
Spaghetti models for Tropical Storm Melissa
Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
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Could Tropical Storm Melissa impact Florida?
“There is significant uncertainty in the track and intensity forecast of Melissa,” the National Hurricane Center said.
“The longer Melissa tracks to the west, the greater the chance of an impact on the U.S.,” said AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Bernie Rayno.
“The U.S. concern for impacts will be in the Florida Peninsula, especially the lower portion of the Peninsula and the Keys. Strong westerly winds, driven by the jet stream, should prevent the storm from tracking into Texas, Louisiana and the panhandles of Mississippi, Alabama and Florida next week.”
“At this time, I think the chances of any direct or even indirect impacts on Florida, beyond waves and rip currents, are very low, around 15% or so,” said AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva via email Oct. 21.
“If Florida were to see any impacts, it would likely be around the middle of next week — Wednesday through Friday (Oct. 29-31). There’s nothing imminent right now, but it’s something to keep an eye on over the next few days as we monitor trends and model data.”
What tropical waves, disturbances are in Atlantic basin now? How likely are they to strengthen?
The National Hurricane Center also is monitoring two other tropical waves, in addition to Tropical Storm Melissa:
Who is likely to be impacted by Tropical Storm Melissa, tropical waves out there?
It’s too early at this time to determine if there will be any impact to Florida or the U.S. from Tropical Storm Melissa or the tropical waves.
➤ Excessive rainfall forecast
Forecasters urge all residents to keep an eye on the tropics and to always be prepared.
Florida weather radar for Oct. 22, 2025
Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida
When is the Atlantic hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said.
The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America, as the Gulf of Mexico is now known in the U.S. per an order from President Trump. NOAA and the National Hurricane Center are now using Gulf of America on its maps and in its advisories.
When is the peak of hurricane season?
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
Hurricane names for 2025 season
Here are the names for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, along with how to pronounce them. The first hurricane of the season typically forms Aug. 11.
National Hurricane Center map: See what forecasters watching now
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:
Why does NHC say ‘tropical cyclone’ on its maps instead of hurricane or tropical storm?
Tropical cyclone is the generic term used by the National Weather Service, NOAA and the National Hurricane Center for any tropical system, even if it’s in the tropical Atlantic basin.
To be more precise, a tropical cyclone is a “rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or subtropical waters and has closed, low-level circulation,” NOAA said.
Once maximum sustained winds reach 74 mph, what it is called is determined by where it originated:
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This story has been updated to include new information.
This article originally appeared on Naples Daily News: National Hurricane Center tracking Tropical Storm Melissa, 2 tropical waves. What you should know
Reporting by Cheryl McCloud, USA TODAY NETWORK – Florida / Naples Daily News
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
