On the latest episode of our podcast USC Prime Time Live over at The Voice of College Football, Matt Zemek and I discussed the outlook for the rest of Lincoln Riley’s tenure at USC, and I made the point that the top-ranked 2026 recruiting class won’t magically fix everything for Lincoln Riley next season.
There is a complicated and layered discussion to have about Lincoln Riley’s future and the overall outlook for the USC program beyond this year. The Trojans do not appear likely to reach their expected goals in 2025, but that 2026 recruiting class has been the talk of the town as far as USC football is concerned. Trojan fans have been excited about the surge in recruiting under general manager Chad Bowden. That excitement is justified, but there are so many more components to this conversation than that one point alone.
Let’s go deeper:
USC Voice of College Football show after Notre Dame loss
‘They’re freshmen’
“They’re freshmen,” I said on the show. “They’re not going to step in and be superstars immediately. Recruiting some of the best players on the roster now to stay [is important], there are transfer portal pieces they need to go out and get. It’s not like this recruiting class is going to save everybody.”
Don’t get me wrong, some of them will come into the program and be impact players immediately. Looking at this season for the Trojans, wide receiver Tanook Hines and defensive tackle Jahkeem Stewart are two true freshmen who have stepped in and played vital roles at USC in 2025.
Player Development
The vast majority of the freshmen will still need to develop, and it will be a very, very pleasant surprise if any of them step in and become one of the best players in college football. It just doesn’t happen all that often. It’s the exception rather than the rule.
So although Lincoln Riley should be given a chance to remain the head coach of USC next season and coach that No. 1 recruiting class barring something disastrous, he shouldn’t be counting on them to save him and be the X factor for USC next season. And neither should Trojan fans.
Pressing issues
There are more pressing issues with the current team and program that could continue to prevent the Trojans from being elite. Here are five things he needs to focus on that will likely be much bigger factors in USC’s 2026 success than the freshman class.
Lincoln Riley play calling in high-pressure situations
Lincoln Riley has been an incredible play caller for the majority of the 2025 season so far. That is especially true against clearly inferior opponents, or when USC has a lead.
It’s clear that when Riley is comfortable, he is in total control. His entire play calling script, from the start of the game until the end, flows together like a beautiful sonnet.
But in big, close games or when USC is losing, I truly believe that Riley gets in his own head and overthinks crucial plays. As someone who has watched plenty of San Francisco 49ers games, I also see this in Kyle Shanahan a lot.
Overthinking
Trojan fans saw this against Notre Dame with a couple of inexplicable calls that were too creative. Credit the Fighting Irish for putting a lot of pressure on Riley as a play caller. They consistently stopped the run and forced USC into obvious passing situations, and they ran the football exceptionally well, allowing them to have the lead for most of the contest.
And hey, Coach Riley is a human being. Even he is going to feel stress and make mistakes. No one is asking him to be perfect. And if he is stressed and thinking hard about what play to run, it’s a sign of his competitiveness and deep desire to win.
Self-awareness
But, with some self-reflection and self-awareness, Riley can realize when the pressure of a given situation may be affecting his decision making and pivot away from the stress-induced answer. The anxiety he may feel is not within his control. But he can become aware of his own overthinking and respond to that anxiety differently.
Such as just running the QB sneak on 4th-and-1 instead of a tight end screen. If your offensive line gets beat on that play, so be it. You at least gave your team the highest probability, lowest risk chance to get 1 yard.
Handling the rest of the 2025 slate
The last two games were USC’s biggest of the season for a lot of people. The Trojans went 1-1, taking advantage of a great opportunity to thoroughly beat Michigan and squandering an opportunity to steal a win in South Bend.
But things don’t get less important from here on out. USC has a lot to gain — and conversely, a lot to lose — in its last 5 games of the season.
Nebraska Cornhuskers
In their next game on November 1, the Trojans go to Lincoln, Nebraska to take on the Cornhuskers. This is the kind of game that USC has struggled mightily in since joining the Big Ten. Nebraska is a middle of the road, good-but-not-elite Big Ten team that is going to have a very passionate home crowd behind them. These are the kinds of games that USC lost last season: Minnesota, Maryland, Washington. If USC won those games instead of losing them, they would have gone 9-3. 9-3!
They need to prove they can win on the road, in a tough Big Ten environment, against a team that they they should be better than. Remember, they beat the Huskers 28-20 last season in Jayden Maiava’s debut…at the Coliseum.
November games USC football is expected to win
Northwestern is better than they were last season. Iowa has an offense for the first time in what feels like forever, and they come to town for USC’s homecoming game. UCLA has new life under Tim Skipper and Jerry Neuheisel.
Oregon Ducks
And of course, there’s Oregon. Boy could USC gain a lot from going up to Autzen Stadium and beating the Ducks, especially if that comes amidst a 5-0 finish for the Trojans. That may result in a Big Ten title game appearance and even a college football playoff berth.
All of these games need to be taken seriously. Each win helps the Trojans keep recruits, retain current players, learn how to coach/play/win in difficult Big Ten games, and restore pride in the program.
This. is not the pros where you give up and tank for a high draft pick. Winning in 2025 helps foster winning in 2026. It’s simple math really.
Retaining and improving current players
The Trojans could have massive shoes to fill across the roster in 2026.
Jayden Maiava, Makai Lemon, Ja’Kobi Lane, Waymond Jordan, Eli Sanders, Lake McRee, Anthony Lucas, Eric Gentry, Christian Pierce, Bishop Fitzgerald, DeCarlos Nicholson and Kamari Ramsey are all key players who could, or will, depart for the NFL Draft or graduate after this season. That’s nearly every star on USC’s current roster.
Now, if they could convince some of these players like Maiava, Jordan, Lane and Pierce that will still have eligibility and could benefit from further development to stay another year, that would obviously be ideal.
But some, if not most, of them are going to leave. And so it’s even more about retaining the up-and-comers behind them.
Long list
It’s players like Tanook Hines, Jahkeem Stewart, Walker Lyons, Bryan Jackson, King Miller, Husan Longstreet, Floyd Boucard and Jadyn Walker who are going to be the most important players at USC next season. The coaching staff knows those players and how to keep them around better than I do, but here’s a couple of examples of players they need to really recruit hard to stick around.
Walker Lyons seems like a future star at tight end. But his brother is committed to BYU, who is 7-0 and ranked No. 11 in the country as of right now. There’s plenty of reason for Walker to consider transferring, so they need to conversely give him plenty of reason to stick around.
Husan Longstreet
Now for Husan Longstreet. Everything we’ve heard about the kid is he’s ultra competitive and wants to be on the field. There’s no reason to preserve his redshirt in the NIL and transfer portal era, when kids are constantly presented with opportunities to go play somewhere else immediately. Let the kid play a little in 2025. He shouldn’t be the starting QB over Maiava or anything crazy like that, but let him get in the game for more than one play. Perhaps let him have 6-8 plays a game, including some plays with him and Maiava on the field together.
Getting veteran cornerbacks in the transfer portal
Let’s face it, the cornerback room is the weakest position group on this current USC team. The secondary as a whole has struggled, but safeties Bishop Fitzgerald and Christian Pierce are both good players who are improving, and if USC had more cornerback talent, they could move Kamari Ramsey back to safety as well.
The freshmen aren’t cutting it, and senior transfer DJ Harvey, USC’s big transfer portal addition at the position, has had little positive impact. Right now, USC can rely on DeCarlos Nicholson and that’s it. That’s also seemingly why USC is playing such soft pass coverage.
The Trojans have seven cornerback commits set to join the program as part of their 2026 recruiting class as of right now, headlined by four stars Elbert Hill and Brandon Lockhart. But if this season is any indication, they need veteran leadership and depth in that room in case of injury.
So they need to go out and get proven veteran cornerbacks in the transfer portal, plain and simple, That should easily be their position of biggest focus in the portal. I want them to recruit all of the top 3 cornerbacks in the transfer portal, whoever they may be, and recruit them hard.
Thinking Long and Hard About 2026 Nonconference Schedule
Everyone is thinking about non-conference games all wrong in the 12-team playoff era, something I realized after USC’s loss to Notre Dame this weekend.
The Trojans’ loss to the fighting Irish was the first time they were thoroughly beaten in all phases of football. Everyone, even the coaches and the superstars, have at least one or two things they can take from this game to improve on. They all realized they are not superhuman, not even Makai Lemon.
If USC responds correctly and dives into working on those things, that could make the Trojans holistically better for the rest of the season.
12-team playoff era, and what’s different about it
The loss comes with that benefit and MUCH less consequence than the 4-team playoff era. In the 12-team playoff era, it’s really all about your conference record. A loss to ND doesn’t affect USC’s Big Ten record at all. They have a great chance to make the Big Ten championship game if they win out, and If USC makes the Big Ten conference championship game, they will almost certainly make the Playoff.
Now imagine if USC played this game in August or September. Would they have still lost to Illinois later?
That’s an impossible question to answer, but here’s what’s for sure: losing always presents a learning opportunity. And losing against non-conference teams allows you to learn without sacrificing your college football playoff chances.
Don’t get me wrong, I don’t want the Trojans to go 0-3 in nonconference games. What I’d actually hope is that they go 3-0, but against great opponents and start conference play with a battle tested roster that knows how to win.
So for 2026: Fresno State is already scheduled. Now, extend the rivalry with Notre Dame and look into scheduling an SEC or top tier ACC/Big 12 program for the third nonconference game.
Suggested nonconference opponents
Some suggestions: Oklahoma and Utah.
Yes, I went there. Because that’s the underlying theme throughout this entire piece. It’s time to stop letting fear affect the Lincoln Riley program at USC. It’s time to make decisions like we’re a winning program now, not later.
It’s time to put the fight in fight on.
This article originally appeared on Trojans Wire: 2026 recruiting class won’t save Lincoln Riley at USC, but something can rescue him
Reporting by Ethan Inman, Trojans Wire / Trojans Wire
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
