ORCHARD PARK – Heading into the 2025 season, the consensus around the NFL was that under new coach Mike Vrabel, the New England Patriots were going to return to prominence.
No one thought they were winning Super Bowl 60, and almost no one thought they could prevent the Buffalo Bills from winning a sixth straight AFC East division title.
But with their franchise quarterback in Drake Maye already in place with a solid rookie season under his belt, several key offensive pieces added via the draft, a defense that was vastly upgraded in free agency, and Vrabel’s leadership and salty demeanor, the Patriots were a sexy pick to earn one of the AFC’s three wildcard berths.
Four weeks into the season, one where the Patriots probably should be 4-0 instead of 2-2, it certainly looks like New England is primed to return to the postseason for the first time since 2021, the year the Bills played the near perfect 47-17 game in the wildcard round and blew out an aging team led by fading coach Bill Belichick.
“We just have to win so that we can continue to build a program that can withstand everything that goes on in this league,” said Vrabel, who brings his team to Highmark Stadium for its biggest test of the young season for all to see this week on Sunday Night Football.
In Week 1, the Patriots’ pass defense faltered and they somehow found a way to lose at home to the Raiders who have since lost three straight. They handled the Dolphins in Miami, then literally fumbled away their 21-14 loss at home to the Steelers in Week 3 thanks to five turnovers, two of which came inside the 5-yard-line.
And then Sunday, they eviscerated the Panthers 42-13 in yet another home game as Maye threw for 203 yards and two TDs, Marcus Jones had a franchise-record 167 yards on three punt returns including an 87-yard touchdown, and the defense allowed touchdowns on Carolina’s first and last possessions, but no points on the eight possessions in between during which the Panthers gained just 163 yards.
“When we don’t beat ourselves and we take care of the football and we play complementary football and we get stops on third down, the return, the special teams are a factor, and we score touchdowns in the red zone, it can look like something,” Vrabel said.
Buffalo Bills keys to victory
The Patriots’ run defense has been outstanding and it ranks second in the NFL at 77.5 yards allowed per game. Carolina was able to get 129, but if it hadn’t topped 100, that would have been just the second time in franchise history that New England held opponents under 100 in the first four games of a season. Free agent stud DT Milton Williams has been everything the Patriots were hoping, and veteran LB Robert Spillane and edge rusher Harold Landry have also done a great job against the run.
So this should be a night where Josh Allen has to get it done through the air as the Patriots rank 28th in yards allowed per pass play despite solid pressure numbers as they rank 12th in sack percentage (7.2%) and 13th in pressure rate (35.5%). Of course, they also didn’t have star CB Christian Gonzalez until Week 4, so that’s certainly a factor in their poor numbers. If the Bills are going to find success, they need more from their WRs not named Khalil Shakir as Keon Coleman and Joshua Palmer have underwhelmed since Week 1. In the last three games, they have combined for just 14 receptions for 168 yards and no touchdowns.
New England Patriots keys to victory
The Patriots have not run the ball well in their first four games as neither Rhamondre Stevenson nor rookie TreVeyon Henderson have gotten it going, but they may have that opportunity against the Bills who own the second-worst run defense in the NFL allowing 164.3 yards per game and 6.0 yards per attempt. On the flip side, the Bills lead the NFL in pass defense allowing just 125.8 yards per game, so New England will likely do the obvious here.
Stevenson’s fumbling problems surprisingly didn’t cost him playing time against the Panthers, but while Henderson is the future for the Patriots, the only reason he hasn’t become the No. 1 back is because he’s been awful in pass protection and Vrabel doesn’t trust him yet in the full-time role. Henderson – who has 97 yards on 26 carries playing just 37% of snaps – has a great mix of speed and power and if Vrabel decides to pound the ball, he could have his breakout game.
Bills vs. Patriots matchup to watch
Stefon Diggs will make his first appearance at Highmark Stadium since he left Buffalo after the 2023 season. When he was with the Bills, his four-year tenure was the greatest in team history as he caught 445 passes for 5,372 yards and 37 TDs. Almost as entertaining as his game performances were the battles he used to have in practice against CB Tre’Davious White.
Sunday, they will be up against each for real and while both players are in decline, Diggs is coming in off a quality performance as he enjoyed his first 100-yard game since he had exactly 100 for the Bills against the Giants on Oct. 15, 2023, a span of 22 games. Coming back to Buffalo, he’s going to be motivated to have another big day.
“It’s going be a crazy atmosphere,” Diggs said of his return to Buffalo. “They have one of the best fan bases in the game. We’re playing a real good football team, a well-coached team and a lot of good players over there. Shout out to Josh. I look forward to the challenge.”
Who wins? Bills 30, Patriots 24
The start of the season could not have gone any better for the Bills. They have rolled to four straight victories and have done so while not playing their best football, they are the lone AFC unbeaten, and they go into Sunday with a two-game lead in the division over the second-place Patriots with a chance to really put a hammerlock on it with a victory.
But these are not the Patriots who went 4-13 in each of the last two seasons. The roster is significantly better, Maye is giving them their best QB play since Tom Brady left town after 2019, and they now seem to be playing with attitude and a lot of confidence led by Vrabel, a former Patriot who was a key member of their Super Bowl dynasty as a player. This is going to be a difficult test for the Bills, but again, they are the better team and being at home should be the determining factor.
What time does the Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots game start?
∎ Kickoff is set for 8:20 p.m. at Highmark Stadium
Who is favored to win Bills vs Patriots?
∎ The Bills have opened as an 8.5-point favorite for the game. The money line is Bills minus-500 (bet $500 to win $100) and Patriots plus-375 (bet $100 to win $375). The over-under is 49.5.
How to watch Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots game on TV, streaming
∎ Cable/Network TV: NBC. The game will be available locally via the following stations: WHEC channel 10 (Rochester area), WGRZ channel 2 (Buffalo area), WSTM channel 3 (Syracuse area), WKTV channel 2 (Utica area), WETM channel 18 (Elmira area), WNYT channel 13 (Albany area), and WBGH channel 20 (Binghamton area).
∎ Online streaming services: You can watch games on NFL.com and the NFL mobile app, and you can subscribe to NFL+, the league’s own streaming service, though you can’t cast the games to your TV – you must watch on your phone or tablet.
∎ TV streaming: You can also stream if you have subscriptions to Spectrum, DirecTV Choice, Fubo Sports, Sling, Vidgo, Hulu + Live TV, YouTubeTV + NFL Sunday Ticket, and Peacock.
On the radio: How to listen to the Bills vs Patriots game
You can listen on SiriusXM satellite radio on channel 225 (Bills feed) and channel 226 (Patriots feed), and on traditional radio, the Bills Radio Network has stations all across the state. Chris Brown has the play-by-play, Eric Wood is the analyst, and Sal Capaccio is the sideline reporter. The network includes:
Sal Maiorana has covered the Buffalo Bills for four decades including 35 years as the full-time beat writer for the D&C, he has written numerous books about the history of the team, and he is also co-host of the BLEAV in Bills podcast/YouTube show. He can be reached at maiorana@gannett.com, and you can follow him on X @salmaiorana and on Bluesky @salmaiorana.bsky.social.
This article originally appeared on Rochester Democrat and Chronicle: Bills are back in prime time to battle their old nemesis: What to know about Week 5
Reporting by Sal Maiorana, Rochester Democrat and Chronicle / Rochester Democrat and Chronicle
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