A poll released Sept. 10 indicates whoever wants to be the next Florida governor needs to start introducing themselves to the electorate.
Twenty-seven candidates have filed to run, although three political veterans have the most name recognition:
Democrat and former Congressman David Jolly of St. Petersburg, current Congressman Byron Donalds, R-Naples, and former GOP Florida House Speaker Paul Renner of Palm Coast.
But more than half the respondents in a poll by Bendixen & Amandi say they do not know who the three would-be governors are.
Which means, in the words of veteran Miami pollster Fernand Amandi, the 2026 Florida governor’s race will be “volatile.”
Amandi is president of Bendixen & Amandi, a Miami-based research and strategy firm that focuses on the Latino and minority communities. It counts Democratic campaigns among its clients, including those of Hillary Clinton and former President Barack Obama.
“The opportunity for (candidate) definition is wide open,” Amandi said in a statement about his findings. The Jolly campaign paid for the poll.
The survey of 631 likely voters Sept. 7–9 by phone, text, and online found more than 50% of respondents did not recognize Byron Donalds’ name, 57% did not know who Paul Renner is, and 62% said they had no opinion of David Jolly.
Nonetheless, in head-to-head matchups Jolly leads Donalds 41% to 40% with 19% undecided, while Renner edges Jolly 42% to 40% with 18% undecided.
When Jolly announced his candidacy in June, he trailed Donalds by 6 points.
“We’ve closed the gap. We’ve got this race to a head-to-head toss-up against whomever the Republican nominee is,” Jolly said.
Despite poll results, steep hill for Jolly
Regardless of who the Republican candidate is, Jolly faces a steep climb.
It’s been 31 years since a Democrat won a Florida governor’s race and seven years since one won a statewide office. That’s Nikki Fried, elected commissioner of agriculture in 2018.
Republicans outnumber Democrats by 1.3 million. In recent statewide elections, the top of the GOP ticket won by landslides. DeSantis posted a 19-point reelection victory in 2018, and President Trump carried the state by 13 percentage points in 2024.
Jolly, who left the GOP in 2018, has been barnstorming the state to promote proposals to address affordable housing issues, and end culture war policies that target immigrants and marginalize the LGBTQ community.
He trumpeted the new poll as proof that the 2026 Florida race will be one of the most competitive in the country. In a phone conversation, he pointed to polling details that concluded while the Republican candidate will have “structural advantages” they will face headwinds from divisive policy issues along with a lack of name recognition.
On other issue the survey said 41% of respondents cite affordability issues such as housing and inflation as the most pressing issue facing Floridians.
Sixty percent of respondents opposed ending vaccine mandates, and 48% said they opposed mid-decade congressional redistricting.
Less than a third, 28%, of respondents, identified as part of the “MAGA” movement. And the poll found that Gov. Ron DeSantis has a +4 favorable rating, while President Trump posted a -2 favorable rating.
James Call is a member of the USA TODAY NETWORK-Florida Capital Bureau. He can be reached at jcall@tallahassee.com and is on X as @CallTallahassee.
This article originally appeared on Tallahassee Democrat: In Florida’s 2026 governor race, new poll shows few know the leading candidates
Reporting by James Call, USA TODAY NETWORK – Florida / Tallahassee Democrat
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
