It’s been a perfectly pleasant summer in Indiana, hasn’t it?
Right, so long as you’ve never stepped a foot outside your air-conditioned home and you live far enough away from a cornfield.
For the rest of us, summer has been a grueling, hot and sweaty mess. The latest heat dome isn’t helping.
If your heart is already set on autumn leaves and Pumpkin Spice Lattes, the Old Farmer’s Almanac has issued its seasonal fall weather forecast for the Midwest. Their prediction paints a cool and crisp looking autumn.
Climatologists at the National Weather Service, however, might disagree.
Here’s what forecast models are predicting for Indiana when summer ends and fall begins.
Story continues after photo gallery.
When is the first day of fall?
September 22, 2025, is the first official day of fall in the northern hemisphere.
Old Farmer’s Almanac: Fall 2025 forecast for Indiana
The Old Farmer’s Almanac, not to be confused with the Farmer’s Almanac, is predicting a “cool and dry” fall for Indiana and the larger region
Both the Ohio Valley and upper Midwest are predicted to have cooler than normal temperatures in September and October, writes the Old Farmer’s Almanac, by as much two degrees.
Farmer’s Almanac issues Autumn Outlook for 2025
The 2025 autumn outlook by the Farmer’s Almanac is calling for a “flirty, flurry, fall” this year.
“Fall 2025 is shaping up to be a season of contrasts across the United States,” writes the almanac. “From early chills in the North to lingering warmth in the South, and from stormy skies to tranquil stretches, this fall will keep us on our toes.”
The Midwest can expect clear skies in September with a “tug-of-war between fair weather and storm systems,” according to the almanac. Severe thunderstorms and the potential for a tornado “will loom over the central states, particularly the Ohio Valley and the Plains.”
October and November are predicted to bring traditionally cool weather to large swaths of the country, with the Great Lakes regions seeing a chance for early snow.
Whether either almanac gets it right this year remains to be seen.
How accurate are the Farmer’s Almanac and Old Farmer’s Almanac?
Despite assertions the almanacs are 80-85% accurate, studies have shown their long-range predictions are sometimes little better than a coin flip. One study cited by Popular Mechanics reported the Farmer’s Almanac was right about 52% of the time.
What NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says about fall 2025
Meteorologists with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center have offered a peek into what lies in store for Hoosiers this fall.
You might, as it turns out, have more time to wait before wearing your favorite sweater.
A seasonal temperature outlook map issued Thursday, July 17, by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration shows the United States is leaning toward a warmer than normal fall.
Indiana has a 33-50% chance of seeing warmer than normal temperatures from September through November, according to NOAA.
So what does an average fall look like in Indiana, and will either almanacs get it right?
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What’s the average high temperature for fall in Indiana?
Last year, average monthly high temperatures during September, October and November in Indianapolis were 81, 72 and 56, respectively, according to fall weather data provided by the National Weather Service.
That’s a little bit higher than Central Indiana’s roughly 30-year fall average.
From 1991 to 2020, NWS reported monthly climate temperatures for September, October and November had reached an average of 78, 66 and 52, respectively. That includes an average of 3.27 inches of rain.
What are the dates for the four seasons in 2025?
John Tufts covers trending news for IndyStar and Midwest Connect. Send him a news tip at JTufts@Gannett.com. Find him on BlueSky at JohnWritesStuff.
This article originally appeared on Indianapolis Star: When will it cool down in Indiana? Old Farmer’s Almanac gives the Midwest this fall forecast.
Reporting by John Tufts, Indianapolis Star / Indianapolis Star
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
