The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor a disturbance expected to stall off the southeast coast of the U.S. late this week, which could affect your Fourth of July weekend.
By 2 p.m., chances for development over the next seven days are 30%.
Warm waters along the eastern Gulf and southern Atlantic coasts could provide the fuel necessary for development of a tropical depression or tropical storm around or just after July 4, AccuWeather said.
➤ Track all active storms
➤ Weather alerts via text: Sign up to get updates about current storms and weather events by location
The next named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season will be Chantal.
In the eastern Pacific, Hurricane Flossie continues to strengthen off the coast of southwest Mexico. “Steady to rapid strengthening” is forecast to continue, and Flossie could be a strong Category 2 hurricane — very close to Category 2 strength — within 24 hours.
Here’s the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center as of 2 p.m. July 1:
Is a tropical storm or hurricane coming toward Florida?
“Development may be a bit more likely on the Gulf side, as opposed to the Atlantic side of Florida, but at this point the entire zone is being watched,” DaSilva said, “At this time we feel the development window is from around July 4 to early next week.”
“A frontal boundary is expected to stall and weaken off the southeast U.S. coast late this week,” the National Hurricane Center said at 2 p.m. “An area of low pressure could develop from the weakening front by the weekend over the Atlantic waters off the southeast U.S., over Florida, or over the eastern Gulf.
“Some gradual tropical or subtropical development could occur thereafter as the low drifts and moves little.
“Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible across portions of the southeast U.S., particularly across the west-central Florida coast.”
“A cold front will dive off the coast late this week, and it may act as a catalyst for development either in the eastern Gulf or off the Southeast coast,” said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather lead hurricane expert.
“Wind shear, which can inhibit development, is expected to be fairly low and ocean water temperatures in the Gulf are above average which can aid in development in the outlooked area.”
“Should clustering of thunderstorms and lowering pressure develop enough spin around a center with winds of 35-38 mph, a tropical depression may be born. Waters are warm enough (80 or higher) to allow and sustain tropical development,” according to AccuWeather.
Could tropical system impact Florida over holiday weekend?
“This system poses no direct threat to Florida over the next 5-7 days; however, this system could bring locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds and an increased rip current risk along the Gulf or Atlantic Coast later this week and will continue to be monitored closely,” the Florida Department of Emergency Management said.
“Those heading to the beaches for the holiday weekend from northern Florida and the Alabama and Mississippi panhandles to the Carolinas are urged to monitor the forecast, as there may be rough surf and rip currents and perhaps gusty winds should a tropical depression or storm develop,” DaSilva said.
Factors helping prevent tropical development include wind shear and dry air, including Saharan dust moving across the Atlantic and into the Gulf.
Where is Hurricane Flossie?
Hurricane Flossie continues to strengthen off the coast of southwest Mexico, according to the 6 a.m. CST advisory from the National Hurricane Center.
On the forecast track, Flossie should move farther away from southwestern Mexico Tuesday, July 1.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 95 mph, with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, with weakening starting by late Wednesday, July 2.
The National Hurricane Center predicted maximum sustained winds could reach 110 mph within 24 hours. A Category 3 hurricane has maximum sustained winds of at least 111 mph.
Hurricane Flossie spaghetti models
This forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time.
Hurricane Flossie tracker, path
This forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time.
What do the colored, hatched areas on the NOAA map mean?
The hatched areas on the National Hurricane Center’s tropical outlook map indicate “areas where a tropical cyclone — which could be a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane — could develop,” said National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Jamie Rhome.
The colors make it visibly clear how likely a system could develop, with yellow being low, orange medium, and red high.
The National Hurricane Center generally doesn’t issue tropical advisories until there is a named storm, but there is an exception.
“If a system is near land and there is potential for development, the National Hurricane Center won’t wait before it issues advisories, even if the system hasn’t become an actual storm. This gives residents time to prepare,” Rhome said.
Tropical development common close to Florida in July
Named storms historically develop close to the U.S. in July, especially in the Gulf and off the Atlantic coast between Florida and the Carolinas.
Later in the season, tropical storms and hurricanes develop out of tropical waves moving off the coast of Africa.
NOAA tracking 4 tropical waves, including 2 in Caribbean
Elsewhere in the tropics, the National Hurricane Center is monitoring four tropical waves, including two in the Caribbean:
Florida weather radar for July 1, 2025
Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida
When is the Atlantic hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said.
The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America, as the Gulf of Mexico is now known in the U.S. per an order from President Trump. NOAA and the National Hurricane Center are now using Gulf of America on its maps and in its advisories.
When is the peak of hurricane season?
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
National Hurricane Center map: See what forecasters watching now
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:
Why does NHC say ‘tropical cyclone’ on its maps instead of hurricane or tropical storm?
Tropical cyclone is the generic term used by the National Weather Service, NOAA and the National Hurricane Center for any tropical system, even if it’s in the tropical Atlantic basin.
To be more precise, a tropical cyclone is a “rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or subtropical waters and has closed, low-level circulation,” NOAA sadi.
Once maximum sustained winds reach 74 mph, what it is called is determined by where it originated:
Interactive map: Hurricanes, tropical storms that have passed near your city
Stay informed. Get weather alerts via text
What’s next?
We will update our tropical weather coverage daily.
Download your local site’s app to ensure you’re always connected to the news. And look for our special subscription offers here.
This story was updated to add new information.
This article originally appeared on Naples Daily News: NOAA hurricane center watching system near Florida. How it could impact July 4th plans
Reporting by Cheryl McCloud, USA TODAY NETWORK – Florida / Naples Daily News
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
