Better make some backup plans for inside activities over the Fourth of July weekend.
A disturbance is expected to stall late this week of the southeastern coast of the United States and could lead to the formation of an area of low pressure over Florida by the holiday weekend.
As of 8 a.m. June 30, it has a low chance for tropical or subtropical development, according to the National Hurricane Center.
➤ Track all active storms
➤ Weather alerts via text: Sign up to get updates about current storms and weather events by location
The system stretches across Florida, from the northeastern Gulf to the Atlantic waters off the southeastern coast of the United States.
If you missed it over the weekend, the second named storm of the season, Tropical Storm Barry developed Sunday, June 29 before making landfall in Veracruz, Mexico. By Monday morning, June 30, it had weakened to a remnant low as it continues to bring heavy rain to some areas.
The next named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season will be Chantal.
Here’s the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center as of 5 a.m., June 30:
Is a tropical storm or hurricane coming toward Florida?
A frontal boundary is expected to stall and weaken off the southeast U.S. coast late this week, according to the National Hurricane Center.
An area of low pressure could develop from the weakening front by the weekend off the southeast U.S., over Florida, or over the eastern Gulf.
Some gradual tropical or subtropical development could occur thereafter as the low moves little.
“A cold front will dive off the coast late this week, and it may act as a catalyst for development either in the eastern Gulf or off the Southeast coast,” said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather lead hurricane expert.
“Wind shear, which can inhibit development, is expected to be fairly low and ocean water temperatures in the Gulf are above average which can aid in development in the outlooked area.”
Could tropical system impact Florida over holiday weekend?
“This system poses no direct threat to Florida over the next 5-7 days; however, this system could bring locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds and an increased rip current risk along the Gulf or Atlantic Coast later this week and will continue to be monitored closely,” the Florida Department of Emergency Management said.
“Those heading to the beaches for the holiday weekend from northern Florida and the Alabama and Mississippi panhandles to the Carolinas are urged to monitor the forecast, as there may be rough surf and rip currents and perhaps gusty winds should a tropical depression or storm develop,” DaSilva said.
What does this mean for Polk County’s weather forecast?
The Hurricane Center has issued a tropical weather outlook with a 20% chance of something developing, said Paul Close with the NWS in Ruskin on Monday.
A stalled front could potentially cover the Central Florida region, including the Lakeland-Winter Haven area, he said. The front is expected to bring numerous, scattered rain showers with an outlook of excessive rainfall starting on July 3.
When a stalled front occurs, there is the potential for a tropical storm to develop, Close said.
Here’s the official forecast from the NWS Tampa Bay office in Ruskin.
What do the colored, hatched areas on the NOAA map mean?
The hatched areas on the National Hurricane Center’s tropical outlook map indicate “areas where a tropical cyclone — which could be a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane — could develop,” said National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Jamie Rhome.
The colors make it visibly clear how likely a system could develop, with yellow being low, orange medium, and red high.
The National Hurricane Center generally doesn’t issue tropical advisories until there is a named storm, but there is an exception.
“If a system is near land and there is potential for development, the National Hurricane Center won’t wait before it issues advisories, even if the system hasn’t become an actual storm. This gives residents time to prepare,” Rhome said.
Tropical development common close to Florida in July
Named storms historically develop close to the U.S. in July, especially in the Gulf and off the Atlantic coast between Florida and the Carolinas.
Later in the season, tropical storms and hurricanes develop out of tropical waves moving off the coast of Africa.
What tropical waves, disturbances are in Atlantic basin now?
Elsewhere in the tropics, the National Hurricane Center is monitoring four tropical waves, including one in the Caribbean:
Florida weather radar for June 30, 2025
Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida
When is the Atlantic hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said.
The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America, as the Gulf of Mexico is now known in the U.S. per an order from President Trump. NOAA and the National Hurricane Center are now using Gulf of America on its maps and in its advisories.
When is the peak of hurricane season?
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
National Hurricane Center map: See what forecasters watching now
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:
Why does NHC say ‘tropical cyclone’ on its maps instead of hurricane or tropical storm?
Tropical cyclone is the generic term used by the National Weather Service, NOAA and the National Hurricane Center for any tropical system, even if it’s in the tropical Atlantic basin.
To be more precise, a tropical cyclone is a “rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or subtropical waters and has closed, low-level circulation,” NOAA sadi.
Once maximum sustained winds reach 74 mph, what it is called is determined by where it originated:
Interactive map: Hurricanes, tropical storms that have passed near your city
Stay informed. Get weather alerts via text
What’s next?
We will update our tropical weather coverage daily.
Download your local site’s app to ensure you’re always connected to the news. And look for our special subscription offers here.
This story was updated to add new information.
This article originally appeared on The Ledger: System could stall over Florida. Fourth of July impacts for Polk County
Reporting by Cheryl McCloud, USA TODAY NETWORK – Florida / The Ledger
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
