It’s officially Rivalry Week, and to start things off, No. 3 Texas A&M (11-0, 7-0 SEC) will travel to Austin (TX) to face No. 16 Texas (8-3, 5-2 SEC) on Black Friday, with a spot in the SEC Championship Game on the line. At the same time, the Longhorns need a win to have any shot, as unrealistic as they are, to make the College Football Playoff.
It’s been a busy week for head coach Mike Elko, who spoke with an intense tone during Monday’s press conference and has been laser-focused on the Longhorns for the last week. While he won’t say it, last Saturday’s 48-0 win over Samford was the final minor barrier before completely shifting to Texas, after last season’s 17-7 defeat in Kyle Field following the decade-plus drought in the series.
However, last season’s team was nowhere near as talented as the 2025 Aggies, led by starting quarterback Marcel Reed’s improvement in the pocket, aided by transfer wide receivers KC Concepcion and Mario Craver, who have combined for over 1,600 yards and 13 touchdowns.
On defense, senior edge Cashius Howell leads a pass rush that ranks second nationally with 39 sacks, and will now take on a Texas offensive line that has struggled throughout the season, and could dictate the outcome if the Aggies pressure quarterback Arch Manning early and often.
However, we’ve seen some of the more random outcomes in most rivalry games, and if Texas A&M’s offense doesn’t find the end zone early, Texas’s stout defense has a chance to make this a low-scoring game, which always benefits the home team, especially at night.
Ahead of the biggest game of the year thus far, here are the final Aggies Wire Staff Predictions for No. 3 Texas A&M vs. No. 16 Texas.
Cameron Ohnysty — Lead Writer
We’ve made it. Texas A&M remains the No. 3-ranked team in the latest College Football Playoff Rankings, and Friday night’s primetime road test vs. No. 16 Texas will determine whether the Aggies make the SEC Championship Game or potentially fall several spots in the rankings, forcing them to play in the first round instead of earning a bye.
Texas A&M is the better team, but Texas QB Arch Manning, after a shaky start to the year, has been playing elite football, which poses a massive challenge for the Aggie secondary. Still, A&M’s pass rush, which has produced 39 sacks, will look to expose the Longhorns’ shaky offensive line, which should dictate the game.
Texas A&M’s offense needs to be balanced, and starting QB Marcel Reed must avoid early mistakes that nearly cost the Aggies several games this season, including the 27-point comeback win against South Carolina. However, Reed has been one of the best quarterbacks in the country after halftime, but a slow start on the road in primetime could be too much to overcome.
I’m confident that Reed and the offense will score 20 or more points, even if the run game fails to find holes against the Longhorn front. Still, if senior edge Cashius Howell and the defense can’t get home and place Arch Manning in the spin cycle, this could be a back-and-forth game that comes down to the final possession.
Texas can’t run the ball, ranking 14th in the SEC, so if Texas has any chance at winning, Arch will need to air it out, which is always risky.
Prediction: Texas A&M 24, Texas 21
Dylan Fllippo — Contributor
There’s nothing quite like rivalry week. The hatred of a rivalry in the Southeastern Conference is unlike any other contest across the country, but a couple of years ago, there was just something missing from the slate. That aspect was the Lone Star Showdown between Texas A&M and Texas. Everything will be bigger in Austin on Friday night, with no shortage of postseason implications for both teams.
Most importantly, yearlong bragging rights are on the line for the first time at Darrell K Royal Texas Memorial Stadium since 2010. Last year’s contest featured Texas knocking off Texas A&M in College Station, 17-7, in Mike Elko’s first year as the head coach. This time around, this is a massively different Aggies’ squad, however. Marcel Reed has continued to add accolades to an already impressive Heisman campaign, including ranking in the upper echelon of every passing category.
His dual-threat ability, combined with impressive running backs like Rueben Owens II and freshman Jamarion Morrow, could cause the Longhorns’ defense trouble, as Steve Sarkisian’s unit ranks 14th in rushing defense in the conference. On the flip side, Texas A&M’s defense must find ways to halt Arch Manning from creating plays with his feet and find targets downfield.
Prediction: Texas A&M 23, Texas 17
Jarrett Johnson — Contributor
The time is here. Throw records, stats, weekly awards, rankings, and history out the window because it’s rivalry week. Texas A&M has done everything it needed to this season to earn a College Football Playoff berth, win or lose, but none of that matters right now.
The Aggies have a chance to eliminate Texas from the playoff picture while also securing a spot in the SEC title game and possibly a first-round bye. Texas, on the other hand, is desperate—and desperate teams are dangerous.
A win won’t knock A&M out of the CFP, but it would mark the second straight year the Longhorns spoiled the Aggies’ SEC title hopes. A decisive victory could even give Texas a slim chance to sneak into the playoffs. It’s unlikely, but the Longhorns in the postseason would be television gold.
On the field, the game hinges on whether Texas A&M can limit explosive plays and whether Texas can keep the Aggie offense off the field. The problem for the Longhorns is that A&M’s defense only struggles against balanced attacks with an above-average running back—something Texas doesn’t have.
Their offense has sputtered against the better SEC defenses, and that’s a tough trend to break in a game of this magnitude. But here’s the truth: none of that really matters.
This rivalry has burned for more than a century, and with Texas now in the SEC, a new generation gets to feel the fire of the Lone Star Showdown. CFP implications, rankings, and stats fade into the background. This is about pride, bragging rights, and the kind of game that defines college football in Texas.
Prediction: Texas A&M 30, Texas 27
Contact/Follow us @AggiesWire on X (formerly Twitter) and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Texas A&M news, notes and opinions. Follow Cameron on X: @CameronOhnysty.
This article originally appeared on Aggies Wire: Staff predictions for Week 14 matchup between Texas A&M and Texas
Reporting by Cameron Ohnysty, Jarrett Johnson and Dylan Flippo, Aggies Wire / Aggies Wire
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
