CHICAGO — From the top of the organization and throughout the clubhouse, the Cincinnati Reds are bracing for life without Hunter Greene for the longest stretch they’ve ever had to think about it since his 2022 debut.
That becomes an especially acute problem to solve as they look ahead to next season with one guaranteed year left on manager Terry Francona’s contract, arbitration kicking in for Elly De La Cruz and an increasing sense of urgency to win within a fast-narrowing competitive window with this core.
“We’re going to have to look at all aspects of what we can and can’t do,” team president Nick Krall said.
Greene, a 2024 All-Star with a 100-mph fastball, had major elbow surgery in Los Angeles on Aug. 12; the club still did not have an update by late that night on the extent of the damage that would determine whether Greene would be expected to return at all next season.
Teammates expressed concern for Greene this week as they finished a road trip with a three-game series against the White Sox in Chicago.
But they also said they believe they have enough rotation depth in-house to weather even a worst-case rehab process for Greene and compete for a playoff appearance in 2027.
“Health is always going to be a factor,” veteran closer Emilio Pagán said. “It’s hard for any club to withstand when their best players are not on the field. But the talent here gets me excited as a teammate.
“We’ve got enough guys that I feel like we can compete.”
Among the biggest reasons for that sentiment, which also was echoed by several others, is hard-throwing Chase Burns (13-2, 2.61), who’s working on closing out a breakthrough, All-Star season in his first full year in the big leagues — barely two years after being drafted second overall. And just a month after signing a seven-year, $105 million extension.
Another is the guy drafted seventh overall a year earlier out of the same Wake Forest program: Right-hander Rhett Lowder, who missed all of last season with a series of injuries, missed time this season working through shoulder soreness, but who is now back and pitching as well as he has since a six-start, 1.17-ERA debut in 2024.
“Rhett has started to look more like himself,” Pagán said. “A lot of people forget the fact he missed a full year at a young time in his career. That’s not easy to do. He’s starting to look more like the Rhett we saw in 2024.”
Lowder, who pitched into the sixth inning against the White Sox the night of Greene’s surgery, said he feels it, too — “definitely” as good as he has all year.
He said his experience this year in particular might prepare him to become a big part of the solution for competing in Greene’s absence.
“Things happen, and you find yourself in the middle of it,” said Lowder, who gave up a second run in the 5-0 loss to the White Sox on Wednesday only because an inherited runner scored when he handed off a 1-0 game with one on and one out in the sixth.
“But it’s not like those guys go down and we just punt,” he said. “We all have to be ready to go. I think I stepped up in that aspect, and I’m ready to do that whenever.”
Over his past four starts, Lowder hasn’t allowed more than two runs in any of them, producing a 3.22 ERA with 16 strikeouts and five walks.
“Even coming into spring training this year, nothing for me was solidified,” he said. “I’ve had to kind of just fight to help any way I can.”
Lowder went from job-share starter late in spring training to rotation piece because of injuries to start the season to the bullpen when others returned and then back to the rotation.
“I’ve been inconsistent myself, so that’s something that I’m learning from this year after missing the entire year and being able to come in and bounce around roles and just get more experience in different aspects,” Lowder said.
“So I think it’ll prepare me for next year.”
The Reds can use all the preparation and help they can get from their in-house options as they look ahead to 2027.
Whatever the front office might be able to do from the outside, it’s hard to imagine the resources to backfill for a two-time Opening Day starter who produced a 16-9 record and 2.76 ERA over 45 starts in 2024-25, no matter what they might recoup through the insurance on Greene’s $53 million contract — and no matter how well they’ve compensated for his other stretches on the IL these past four seasons.
“It’s obviously really, really tough, looking at the rest of this year and then possibly all of next year as well,” said Brady Singer — who could wind up being another key to next season after the front office chose not to trade him at the Aug. 3 deadline and instead will consider a qualifying offer to retain him.
Krall acknowledged again this week Singer could be a significant part of a plan to compete without Greene, adding, “We’ve got to get to the offseason and see what happens with everybody and what it looks like.”
Singer, too, defers talking about what his status with the club might be heading into the offseason.
But he said he knows what this team has already under control as it faces a Greene-less run for a playoff berth.
“The core of this group is really good, obviously with Elly and with Tito managing,” Singer said.
In all, the Reds have five experienced big-league starters under club control for next year beyond Singer: Burns, Lowder, Nick Lodolo, 2025 All-Star Andrew Abbott, and Brandon Williamson (who could be back from the IL soon).
“Losing (Greene) — it’s not fun at all,” Abbott said. “There’s not a better competitor. He’s one of our guys. He’s the guy for us. It’s a hard guy to replace.
“But we have the guys here. We have the guys that are developing below us to keep the ship afloat,” Abbott added. “Chase’s development, Rhett’s development. That’s super important. Retaining Brady is massive, to cover quality innings and as a quality teammate.”
As Lowder pointed out, the Reds have mixed and matched to cover injury losses much of this season.
“We’d like to be in a little different place in the standings this year,” he said, “but I think we’ve showed we’ve played some good baseball at times and been just a little inconsistent and had some injuries. We’ve learned that we’ve been been able to do it, to put together some good ball without some of our top guys.
“I don’t think that that looking towards next year it adds any more pressure than it would be,” he added. “We’re all trying to win no matter what. No matter who’s out there”
Said Abbott: “The guys that we have, if we stay healthy, we have a chance.”
This article originally appeared on Cincinnati Enquirer: Why Reds say they can reach playoffs in 2027 without Hunter Greene
Reporting by Gordon Wittenmyer, Cincinnati Enquirer / Cincinnati Enquirer
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By Gordon Wittenmyer, Cincinnati Enquirer | USA TODAY Network
