Nobody likes a good prediction more than we do here at Buckeyes Wire, and in fact, we get into it ourselves as well when the time comes and will throughout the 2025 Ohio State and college football season.
But if you’ve followed us at all, you know we like to check in on what the ESPN “Matchup Predictor” says about the probability of Ohio State winning each game on its schedule on a weekly basis. The ESPN computers always adjusts things after the latest slate of games, and we like to check in each time.
The Buckeyes enjoyed some rest for Week 4, but are now ready to get back in action by heading out to the Pacific Northwest for their first road game and first Big Ten contest of the year against Washington. And, even though Ohio State didn’t play, others did, and it all resulted in ESPN updating the. chances of OSU winning each of its remaining regular-season games. Which way did things move with Michigan, Penn State, and Oregon? What about the rest of the schedule?
Here’s what ESPN’s “Matchup Predictor” says. We include games already played and the results, which in this case are just the first three weeks of the season.
First up … Games Completed
Aug. 30 vs. Texas Longhorns
Location | Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
Predicted winner | Texas (53.3%)
Actual result | Ohio State won 14-7
All-time series | Ohio State leads 3-2
Actual Record | 1-0
Sept. 6 vs. Grambling State
Location | Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
Predicted winner | Ohio State (99.0%)
Buckeyes win probability | 99.0% (no change)
Actual result | Ohio State won 77-0
All-time series | Ohio State now leads 1-0
Actual running record | 2-0
Next … Games still to be played
Sept. 13 vs. Ohio
Location | Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
Predicted winner | Ohio State
Buckeyes win probability | 95.4%
Actual result | Ohio State won 37-9
All-time series | Ohio State leads 8-0
Projected running record | 3-0
Sept. 27 at Washington
Location | Husky Stadium (Seattle, Washington)
Predicted winner | Ohio State
Buckeyes win probability | 68.8% (down from 76.5%)
All-time series | Ohio State leads 9-3
Projected running record | 4-0
Oct. 4 vs. Minnesota
Location | Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
Predicted winner | Ohio State
Buckeyes win probability | 94.2% (up from 93.4%)
All-time series | Ohio State leads 48-7
Projected running record | 5-0
Nov. 11 at Illinois
Location | Memorial Stadium (Champaign, Illinois)
Predicted winner | Ohio State
Buckeyes win probability | 82.3% (up from 69.7%)
All-time series | Ohio State leads 69-30-4
Projected running record | 6-0
Oct. 18 at Wisconsin
Location | Camp Randall Stadium (Madison, Wisconsin)
Predicted winner | Ohio State
Buckeyes win probability | 89.2% (up from 84.5%)
All-time series | Ohio State leads 63-18-5
Projected running record | 7-0
Nov. 1 vs. Penn State
Location | Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
Predicted winner | Ohio State
Buckeyes win probability | 67.8% (up from 65.0%)
All-time series | Ohio State leads 26-14
Projected running record | 8-0
Nov. 8 at Purdue
Location | Ross-Ade Stadium (West Lafayette, Indiana)
Predicted winner | Ohio State
Buckeyes win probability | 94.4% (no change)
All-time series | Ohio State leads 43-15-2
Projected running record | 9-0
Nov. 15 vs. UCLA
Location | Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
Predicted winner | Ohio State
Buckeyes win probability | 98.6% (up from 98.5%)
All-time series | Series tied 4-4-1
Projected running record | 10-0
Nov. 22 vs. Rutgers
Location | Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
Predicted winner | Ohio State
Buckeyes win probability | 91.1% (up from 89.0%)
All-time series | Ohio State leads 10-0
Projected running record | 11-0
Nov. 29 at Michigan
Location | Michigan Stadium (Ann Arbor, Michigan)
Predicted winner | Ohio State
Buckeyes win probability | 57.7% (down from 59.8%)
All-time series | Michigan leads 62-52-6
Projected running record | 12-0
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This article originally appeared on Buckeyes Wire: Updated ESPN game-by-game FPI predictions for remainder of 2025 regular season games
Reporting by Phil Harrison, Buckeyes Wire / Buckeyes Wire
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
