SOUTH BEND — Not even a historic whipping of unranked Syracuse could boost Notre Dame football into a projected first-round home game in this year’s College Football Playoff.
The Tuesday, Nov. 25 reveal kept Notre Dame at No. 9 and projected to face eighth-seeded Oklahoma (9-2) in a first-round road game.
Alabama, BYU and Miami are ranked 10th through 12th after the Hurricanes (9-2) jumped over Utah in the wake of a narrow escape (51-47) for the Utes against Kansas State.
Now 9-2 after a 70-7 destruction of the Orange, Notre Dame closes its regular season on Saturday at 4-7 Stanford. The Irish are 31-point betting favorites in Palo Alto, where they have won their past three visits by a combined 146-61.
Miami (9-2) beat the Cardinal 42-7 on Oct. 25 in South Florida. The 12th-ranked Hurricanes play at No. 22 Pittsburgh on Saturday at noon, giving the Irish roughly 7 ½ hours to consider the potential impact of that result on their CFP chances.
Notre Dame rolled Pitt on Nov. 15 at Acrisure Stadium by a 37-15 final that included a meaningless touchdown against the third-string defense with no time on the clock.
In the other common opponent situation, Miami beat Syracuse 38-10 on Nov. 8 at home.
Miami called a timeout on Saturday with a 10-point lead at Virginia Tech before having Carson Beck pass for a 20-yard touchdown with 20 seconds remaining in a 34-17 win over the unranked Hokies.
The Hurricanes lost at home to Louisville (24-21) and at Southern Methodist (26-20) in overtime on either side of that win over Stanford. SMU moved into this week’s CFP Top 25 at No. 21, giving Miami a ranked loss it previously lacked.
Miami and Notre Dame are now comparison-worthy
Miami, which has climbed six spots from No. 18 in the first CFP rankings three weeks ago, has moved close enough to the Irish for their season-opening home win over Notre Dame to count in terms of a so-called “comparison pool.”
“They were compared this week, but they’re compared in the same pod as Alabama and a one-loss BYU,” CFP selection committee chair Hunter Yurachek said on ESPN. “And the committee still feels that Notre Dame is a complete team, has been consistent throughout the season and deserves to be ranked where they are at No. 9. … Miami falls in accordingly.”
Yurachek, the Arkansas athletic director, was in attendance on Sept. 27 when Notre Dame wiped out the Razorbacks, 56-13, at Frank Broyles Field. Yurachek fired his coach, Sam Pittman, the next day.
Miami outlasted the Irish, 27-24, on Aug. 31, but that margin came on a 47-yard Carter Davis field goal with 1:04 remaining. Total yardage went to the Hurricanes, 339-314, but the Irish rallied from a 14-point hole after three quarters to tie the game.
“The committee has seen some really good, consistent play from Miami over the past three weeks,” Yurachek said. “They lost two out of three but now it appears that they’re back on track. They started in this poll at 18 and now they’re up to 12. They’re the biggest mover so far of the past four weeks.”
Again showing a preference for the eye test over advanced metrics, Yurachek noted Beck has completed over 80% of his passes the past three weeks for 855 total air yards, eight touchdowns and no interceptions.
“He looks like the Carson Beck in that five-game winning streak they had to start the season,” Yurachek said.
No mention was made of Beck’s last three opponents ranking 81st (Virginia Tech), 114th (Syracuse) and dead last at 136th (N.C. State) in passing yards allowed per game. Combined, those three teams are averaging 769 passing yards allowed, for what it’s worth.
What the leading metrics say about Notre Dame football
The first three rankings had the Irish opening with first-round games at BYU, Oregon and Oklahoma.
Despite trailing only Ohio State in the latest Sagarin rankings and ranking fourth in the Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) and fifth in ESPN’s SP+, the Irish still face a potential doomsday scenario should conference championship weekend include its usual round of upsets.
In particular, a BYU upset of Texas Tech in the Big 12 title game and/or an Alabama upset in the SEC Championship could prove costly to the Irish. The ACC champion, which almost certainly won’t be Miami, would earn another spot along with the highest-ranked Group of Five team (currently 9-2 Tulane).
Selection Sunday is set for Dec. 7 with first-round games at campus sites on Dec. 19 and 20.
Notre Dame’s only two wins over CFP-ranked teams are against No. 17 USC (8-3), which lost at Oregon over the weekend; and Pittsburgh (8-3), which toppled then-No. 16 Georgia Tech on the road.
Navy, a 49-10 loser at Notre Dame on Nov. 8, remains unranked by the CFP committee. The Midshipmen are listed second among others receiving votes by the coaches this week.
Mike Berardino covers Notre Dame football for the South Bend Tribune and NDInsider.com. Follow him on social media @MikeBerardino.
This article originally appeared on South Bend Tribune: How Notre Dame football fared in latest CFP committee rankings
Reporting by Mike Berardino, South Bend Tribune / South Bend Tribune
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
